Weekly rise of 3.40%

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on January 7 was 21063.33 yuan / ton, compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton before the festival (December 31), with a weekly increase of 3.40%; Compared with the average market price of 18900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 11.43%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 13.11% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 12.68% recently.

Analysis on the motivation of aluminum price rise this week

1. On the raw material side, the news of Indonesia’s coal export ban was fermented during the new year’s Day holiday, which supported the upward trend of aluminum prices.

2. The main reasons for the recovery of aluminum prices in this round: it is mainly based on the improvement of supply expectations, especially the energy crisis in Europe, and the rise of electricity prices caused by natural gas, resulting in the reduction of production of many aluminum plants in Europe; In addition, the domestic supply side reform has achieved remarkable results in previous years, and the production capacity has basically formed a ceiling. In recent 1-2 years, the production has also been affected by the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization”.

 
3. The social inventory data of aluminum ingots is improving, the domestic aluminum price has been callback sideways for a long time, the downstream inquiry volume has increased, and the acceleration effect before the aluminum terminal consumption Festival is superimposed, which supports the overall strong operation of domestic aluminum price in the near future.

Future forecast

Near the Spring Festival, the cyclical accumulation effect before and after the festival tests the market tolerance. The recent aluminum price trend is good, but it should not be too high. It is expected that the vibration is strong and the operation is dominated.