1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on October 29, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 10400 yuan / ton, down 17.43% from the beginning of the week, 18.17% from the beginning of the month, and 45.22% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market fell sharply, down about 17%. The daily decline of enterprises was about 500 yuan / ton, and the price mostly hovered around 10000 yuan. PVC futures continued to fall. Although they rebounded, it was difficult to change the overall situation. The price in the spot market continued to fall, the profits of PVC enterprises were damaged, the price of raw calcium carbide fell to about 7200 yuan / ton, the cost support fell, and the mentality of the industry was negative, The market price is relatively chaotic, with most single discussions, but the downstream procurement is still cautious and continues to maintain just needed procurement. The market is shrouded in pessimism. The holders have a strong intention to make profit and ship, and the focus is moving down rapidly. In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 11000-12500 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9880-9950 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Tianjin is 9700-10000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 10450-10600 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to decline.

On October 28, the international oil price stabilized after falling. The WTI crude oil futures of the United States rose slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was reported as US $82.81/barrel, up US $0.15 or 0.18%. Brent crude oil futures fell slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was reported as US $83.66/barrel, down US $0.21 or 0.25%. The previous trading day, affected by the surge in U.S. crude oil inventories and rumors of the resumption of Iran’s nuclear negotiations, oil prices fell sharply. At present, the market gradually returns to rationality and stops falling and stabilizes.

Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose in October. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the month was US $1125.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the end of the month was US $1186.75/t, an increase of 5.47%. The current price increased by 6.10% month on month, and the current price increased by 58.13% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil, the economy is gradually recovering, the demand continues to improve, and the high raw material price supports the cost of ethylene. Therefore, the data analysts of business society expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

For calcium carbide, on October 29, the ex factory price of Northwest calcium carbide fell sharply to 7200-7600 yuan / ton, the downstream PVC market fell slightly recently, and the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement. At present, with the relaxation of power restriction and the increase of calcium carbide production, it is expected that it will fluctuate slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that under the guidance of macro policy information, the disk continues to be weak, the price of raw materials falls, the negative factors in the PVC market are obvious, and the market is weak.