1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the trend of toluene first fell and then rose this week. On June 13, the price of toluene was 5801 yuan / ton; On this Sunday (June 20), the price was 5801 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.51% compared with last week; It was up 63.41% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil continued to rise in the week, with good external news support, but domestic toluene market demand remained weak, and prices remained weak and volatile. In terms of external market, as of June 18, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 730 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton or 0.54% from June 11.

In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand, and the overall trend of international oil prices is upward. However, the strong US dollar exchange rate during the week depressed oil prices.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, with domestic goods at 13666.67 yuan / ton, up 7.89% over the beginning of the year and 18.84% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6500 yuan / ton, up 58.54% year on year. As of June 18, closing prices in Asia were 846-848 USD / T FOB Korea and 866-868 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, supporting the price of toluene; The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. Overall, toluene remained weak in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene prices.