According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of power coal (port) is around 543 yuan / ton, up 3.77% per day. On May 24, the power coal commodity index was 63.04, which was the same as yesterday, 38.80% lower than 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and 41.03% higher than 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The recent performance of power coal price is strong. On the whole, in the context of production reduction, overhaul of Daqin line, sharp drop in port inventory, and increasingly strict import restrictions, daily coal consumption of coastal power plants soared, and power plant inventory. Under the boost of high daily consumption, the power plant continued to maintain de stocking in the near future. From the downstream power plant to May 22, the daily coal consumption of six power plants was 675400 tons / day, with a weekly to environmental ratio of 15500 tons / day. As of May 22, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 3.89 million tons, with a decrease of 475000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio; as of May 22, the total inventory of six major power plants was 1416.00 tons, with a decrease of 5555000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio. In the near future, the market purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly, driven by the fast speed of going to the warehouse, the near peak summer replenishment window and the “buy up don’t buy down”. In addition, import restrictions are becoming more stringent. From January to April, the coal import volume is close to 130 million tons. If calculated according to the rumored import quota of 250 million tons in the market at the beginning of the year, the remaining import quota is less than 50%, part of the port import quota has been exhausted, and the import restrictions are stricter.

Macro: in April 2020, the BCI of the business community was -0.02, with an average increase of 0.38%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy compared with the previous month and the stable operation of the economy.

According to the analyst of business agency: the main data of industrial production above Designated Size from January to April 2020 from the National Bureau of statistics, in April, the national raw coal output was 322.12 million tons, an increase of 6.0% year on year. From January to April, the national raw coal output was 1152.44 million tons, up 1.3% year on year. In April, the output of raw coal was 322 million tons. Although the month on month ratio dropped, the year-on-year growth was still 6%. After structural adjustment on the supply side, with the release of high-quality production capacity, the domestic coal supply capacity steadily increased. Generally speaking, the price of power coal will keep rising in the short term, but in the long term, the price of power coal will return to rationality.