1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on February 27 was 6350 yuan / ton, down 4.33% from 6637.5 yuan / ton on Thursday (20), up 0.79% compared with the same period last year. On February 27, the PVC commodity index was 80.46, down 0.16 points from yesterday, down 19.54% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 38.08% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

In terms of products: Recently, the resumption of PVC downstream products enterprises has improved, but the starting level is low, some workers can not fully arrive at their posts, and some construction industries have not yet resumed their work. In addition, the logistics and transportation in some areas are still not smooth. Overall, the downstream demand is still low, which is difficult to boost PVC. At present, PVC inventory is still at a high level, the number of manufacturers returning to production has increased, the supply is sufficient, the demand side maintains just need to purchase, many enterprises have certain stock before the festival, the demand is not high, the overall situation of supply over demand in PVC market is still the same, the transaction is limited, there is a certain pressure on businesses to ship, the situation is weak and normal, which is difficult to change for a while. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of February 27, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6000-6450 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6200-6360 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is about 6200-6350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6220-6240 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

Futures: PVC main v2005 contract fell slightly, closing at 6295 yuan / ton, compared with – 20 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume 82030 hands, + 16681 hands; position 213564 hands, – 15275 hands, base difference – 45 yuan, + 0 yuan; 5-9 price difference – 75 yuan, + 0 yuan..

Industry chain: Recently, the price of crude oil has risen, which is good for the ethylene market to keep up with the rise. Therefore, the data analysts of the business agency expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future, not excluding the possibility of rising. In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price slightly increased, downstream customers’ procurement enthusiasm was general, and the supply of calcium carbide was tight. The aftermarket calcium carbide slightly shakes. Recently, crude oil fell for four consecutive days under the influence of global epidemic warming. The superposition of market risk factors will increase the amplitude of crude oil, and the oversold response of the market will further increase the long-term risk. In the near future, the market or low-level fluctuation will not rule out the possibility of continuing to explore the bottom, and the later crude oil price still needs to wait and see, so the business social data analysts expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future. In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price slightly increased, downstream customers’ procurement enthusiasm was general, and the supply of calcium carbide was tight. The aftermarket calcium carbide slightly shakes.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on February 27, 2020, there are three kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices, among which the top three commodities are cis-1.01%, styrene butadiene rubber (1.01%) and HDPE (0.45%). There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top 3 products falling were ABS (- 4.14%), PA6 (- 2.28%) and natural rubber (- 1.11%). The average price of this day was – 0.37%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts believe that: at present, the PVC manufacturers’ operating rate has increased, while the downstream demand is not strong, the market turnover is general, and it is expected that the PVC market is still weak in the short term.