Introduction: Potassium chloride is a fast acting potassium fertilizer that can be directly applied to farmland. It can increase the water content in the lower soil layer, promote plant growth, improve plant stress resistance, and improve soil quality. But it is not suitable for use in saline alkali soil, tobacco, sweet potato, sugar beet and other crops.

The market situation of imported potassium chloride in 2023 first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic imported potassium chloride market will first decline and then rise in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 3887.50 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 3080 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 20.77%. From the price trend chart of potassium chloride, it can be seen that the highest price of potassium chloride in 2023 was 3937.50 yuan/ton in early January, and the lowest price was 2630 yuan/ton in early August, with a maximum annual decline of 33.21%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of potassium chloride has decreased more than increased, and the market trend shows a first decline followed by an increase. The highest increase was 6.42% in August, and the highest decrease was 16.18% in May. In the first quarter of 2023, spring plowing and fertilizer preparation did not meet expectations, and industrial demand was mainly in demand. The price of potassium chloride fluctuated and fell. The price dropped from 3887.50 yuan/ton on January 1st to 3712.50 yuan/ton on March 31st, a decrease of 4.50%. In the second quarter, the supply of potassium fertilizer for the China Europe freight train increased, and summer fertilizer preparation has not yet begun. The market has a strong bearish atmosphere, and the price of potassium chloride has dropped significantly. The price dropped from 3712.50 yuan/ton on April 1st to 2775 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 25.25%. After signing the potassium fertilizer contract in China in the third quarter, market confidence increased, and agricultural fertilizer usage increased. The price of potassium chloride first fell and then rose. The price increased from 2775 yuan/ton on July 1st to 3000 yuan/ton on September 30th, an increase of 8.11%. In the fourth quarter, fertilizer winter storage was launched, and the price of potassium chloride fluctuated and rose. The price increased from 3000 yuan/ton on October 1st to 3080 yuan/ton on December 31st, an increase of 2.67%.

How will the potassium chloride market develop in 2024?

From the perspective of production capacity and output, China’s potassium chloride resources are mainly distributed in Qinghai and Xizang. The potassium resources are generally scarce, the ecological environment is fragile, the reserves of potassium salt resources are decreasing year by year, the expansion of potassium chloride production is difficult, and the output growth is sluggish. At present, China’s leading potassium chloride companies, Salt Lake Group and Zangge Mining, have no plans to expand production. According to data, the total production of domestic potassium chloride from January to November 2023 was around 6.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. However, there are still plans to continue reducing production in 2024, and it is expected that the supply of domestic potassium chloride will further decrease.

From the perspective of market demand, there is a significant gap in demand for potassium chloride fertilizer in China, but the production capacity of potassium chloride in China cannot meet market demand. The data shows that the apparent consumption of potassium chloride in China in 2022 was 15.4 million tons, with an import volume of 7.94 million tons and an import dependency of 51.56%. As the cultivated land area steadily increases in 2024, the demand for potassium chloride may further increase.

From the perspective of imports and exports: According to customs data, the import volume of potassium chloride has reached a historic high. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2023 was 11.57 million tons, exceeding the 10 million mark for the first time, an increase of 45.8% compared to the same period last year. From the perspective of importing countries, Belarus has 3.437 million tons, Russia has 3.004 million tons, Canada has 1.825 million tons, and Laos has 1.708 million tons. Laos has seen a significant increase in import volume, with a year-on-year increase of 181.45%, and there will still be new production capacity expansion in Laos in 2024. It is expected that import volume will further increase in 2024.

In the future, with an increase in imported goods, the potassium chloride market may first decline and then rise, with the focus shifting downwards.