According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester filament market has shown a trend of first falling and then rising since January. As of the end of the month, the mainstream polyester filament factory POY (150D/48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted 7600-7900 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) quoted 8950-9150 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) quoted 8400-8650 yuan/ton.

In early January, international oil prices adjusted significantly, and the main raw material PTA market declined. In addition, polyester filament factories actively shipped before the Spring Festival, resulting in a slight drop in polyester filament prices. With the official announcement of equipment maintenance plans by PTA’s main suppliers, coupled with the strengthening of crude oil fluctuations and the stimulation of downstream weaving enterprises to stop production and prepare for the holiday, the price of polyester filament has stopped falling and rebounded.

The Red Sea crisis has further escalated, and international crude oil prices continue to fluctuate upwards. As of January 29th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.78 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.83 per barrel. In addition, OPEC+has implemented new production reduction quotas and voluntarily reduced production, and Saudi Arabia and others have announced strict implementation, even extending it to the second quarter, to further support oil prices. Therefore, crude oil prices are expected to maintain a strong and volatile operation in February.

The domestic PTA market showed a V-shaped trend of first falling and then rising in January. As of January 30th, the market price in East China was 6002 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25% compared to the beginning of the month. At present, multiple PTA suppliers have announced equipment maintenance plans, and market supply expectations have improved. Coupled with higher downstream polyester production compared to the same period in previous years, some polyester factories plan to have shorter maintenance times during the Spring Festival period, and generally hold an optimistic attitude towards PTA demand after the Spring Festival. Some traders have shown reluctance to sell, supporting the continuous strengthening of PTA prices.

There is no significant downward trend in downstream weaving start-up rate in January, and the support for the rigid demand of polyester filament is still sufficient. It is expected that in February, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, most downstream weaving factories will shut down for vacation, and the comprehensive weaving operation rate will gradually drop to freezing point. Logistics will also be suspended soon, and the demand for polyester filament will gradually weaken.

From a cost perspective, the geopolitical situation still disturbs international crude oil, and the market is mainly bullish. Crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate and tend to be strong. At present, there is an existing PTA device maintenance plan, but the supply of PTA goods in February is still sufficient, and the accumulation of PTA inventory is significant. From the perspective of terminal demand, the enthusiasm for downstream stocking during the Spring Festival period has decreased, and it is expected that the price of polyester filament may moderately decline.