Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been fluctuating and rising, with some spot prices adjusted. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of January 19th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14725 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.34% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has been weakly adjusted recently. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, and the cost side price has strengthened. However, in the early stage, the resumption of work on the caprolactam plant has been frequent, and the market supply has gradually increased. The downstream market situation is average, with weak trading. Overall, supply pressure has covered the cost boost, and caprolactam has weakened its support for the cost side of PA6.

In terms of supply:

Recently, there has been a narrow adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of nearly 79% this week, which is basically the same as last week. The market supply is relatively stable compared to the previous period, and the on-site supply is abundant. The inventory level is still not high, the pressure on suppliers is not significant, and there is still support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has slightly declined, especially in the weaving sector, with an average load position of 62%, a decrease of 3% compared to the previous period. The operating rate of 81% in spinning has flattened. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up is average, and their overall acceptance of high priced goods is not good. However, the replenishment operations of midstream traders have released some demand, and the operations are biased towards forward delivery contracts, with trading concentrated in small loose orders. Overall, there is a slight increase in support for the demand side of PA6 slices.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the PA6 market has fluctuated and risen. The price of caprolactam has slightly fallen, and the cost support for PA6 has weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains basically unchanged, and the inventory position remains low. At present, the demand side of the terminal is operating cautiously, and there has been a rise in trading in the midstream market, but the intensity is limited. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue its narrow consolidation operation in the short term.