1、 Price trend
| Thiourea |
According to the data of the bulk list of business club, toluene continued to rise this week. The price was 7640 yuan / ton on August 26 and 7800 yuan / ton on Friday (September 2), up 2.09% from last week; Up 38.79% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the rising trend of gasoline, the toluene market has been given a positive boost. In addition, the supply of toluene has continued to be tight, and the market has a positive attitude towards pushing up prices. However, the continuous decline of crude oil depressed the market atmosphere, and the rise of toluene narrowed.
In terms of the external market, toluene in Asia fell violently in the external market this week. On Thursday (September 1), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $974 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $14.5/t, or 1.47%.
In terms of crude oil, oil prices rose as a whole last week due to OPEC + production reduction expectations. However, against the background of continuous interest rate hikes by central banks around the world this week, the market has become more worried about the impact of high inflation and interest rate hikes on the economy, and oil prices have fallen by a wide margin. As of September 2, Brent’s price fell by 7.97 dollars per barrel, or 7.89%, compared with last week; WTI fell by US $6.19/barrel, or 6.65%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the TDI in East China increased by a wide margin this week. On August 26, the price was 17350 yuan / ton, and on September 2, the price was 18200 yuan / ton, up 4.9% over last week and 26.1% over the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price fell this week. On August 26, the price was 9000 yuan / ton, and on September 2, the price was 8800 yuan / ton. The price fell by 2.22% compared with last week, and increased by 23.94% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On August 26, the price was 9073 yuan / ton, and on September 2, the price was 9347 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.02% over last week and 28.06% over the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, first of all, the supply side is still tight, and OPEC + may face a bottleneck in increasing production in the later stage. However, the negotiation results on the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement will affect the market supply of crude oil. Secondly, there are still great risks on the demand side, and the market is still worried about the economic recession. In the future, the oil market will continue to play a long and short game, and the risk of economic recession and epidemic factors will still be the biggest constraints on oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil, product oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
The market is still bullish on gasoline demand in the future, and the spot supply of toluene market is tight. There is a strong positive atmosphere in the short-term market, and the attitude of the industry to support prices is not reduced. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene plant dynamics and downstream demand on the price.
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