1、 Price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, pure benzene rose in shock this month. On May 1, the price was 8600-8750 yuan / ton (the average price was 8658.8 yuan / ton); On May 27, the price was 8800-9350 yuan / ton (the average price was 9117.2 yuan / ton), an increase of 5.29% this month and 17.19% over the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the high external price, the arrival volume of pure benzene in East China port was small this month, and the port inventory continued to decline. In addition, the crude oil price rose broadly, the cost side support was strong, and the domestic Sinopec price rose sharply. The upward trend of pure benzene was obvious this month. However, there was a significant price difference between pure benzene in East China and Shandong this month. The arbitrage of pure benzene from Shandong to East China was blocked, and the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the North resulted in weak negotiation in Shandong and limited price rise.
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Due to the decline of its own output, the price of Sinopec pure benzene rose this month. The price has been raised five times from 8700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 9300 yuan / ton, with a total increase of 600 yuan / ton.
In terms of crude oil, due to the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fact that the EU embargo policy on Russian oil has not yet been implemented, the future crude oil supply is still expected to be tight. In addition, the continuous rise of gasoline prices in the United States, and the peak season of fuel oil demand is coming, the growth of demand drives up the international oil price. As of May 27, Brent rose $10.09/barrel, or 9.23%; WTI rose $10.38/barrel, or 9.91%.
In terms of the external market, Asian pure benzene in the external market rose mainly this month, with an increase of more than 10%. On May 27, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1296 / ton, up $145 / ton, or 12.6%; Pure benzene imported from East China was USD 1312 / T, with a month on month increase of USD 138.5/t, or 11.8%.
Downstream, styrene: styrene rose broadly in May. At the beginning of the month, the production price in Shandong was 9733.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 10233.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.14% this month and 3.72% over the same period last year.
Aniline: aniline stabilized after falling this month, and the price rebounded in the middle of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price in Shandong was 10400-10800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10600-10800 yuan / ton; At the end of the month, the price in Shandong was 11000-11400 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11700-11800 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month increased by 5.62% compared with the beginning of the month and 15.75% compared with the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the peak season of U.S. gasoline and diesel demand is coming. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. The tension between supply and demand of crude oil has intensified, and it is still possible to rise. In June, the crude oil trend continued to fluctuate violently. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
Downstream main product styrene: the inventory of styrene is OK, but the downstream demand is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. If the raw material level continues to rise in June, styrene may rise.
Crude oil and external market remained high in the short term, and the decline in port inventory was also good for the pure benzene market. However, most of the downstream products lost money, the operating rate of the main products decreased, and the follow-up of high priced pure benzene weakened. Overall, the price of pure benzene is high in the short term, but there is no lack of possibility of decline. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.
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