On March 16, the domestic cobalt price fell

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell on March 16, and the cobalt market fell. On March 16, the price of cobalt was 553500 yuan / ton, down 2.33% from 566700 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; The cobalt market fell, and the cobalt price fell.

Key points of analysis

The rise of international cobalt price slowed down, LME cobalt price fell, and the price difference at home and abroad weakened; The consumption of new energy vehicles increased, the sales volume of new energy vehicles decreased month on month, the demand growth rate of cobalt market fell, the output of ternary battery increased year-on-year, the demand of cobalt market remained strong, and the rising power of cobalt market remained. Cobalt prices rose too fast, and the risk of future decline remains.

Future forecast

The international cobalt price fell, the price difference between domestic and foreign cobalt prices weakened, the cobalt price rose too fast, and the risk of decline still exists. It is expected that the future cobalt price will stop falling and rise in shock.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on March 15 was 5133.33 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of March 14, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 957600 tons, an increase of 26600 tons or 2.86% compared with last Monday, and an increase of 6900 tons or 0.73% compared with last Thursday.

On March 14, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 5125 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan / ton from the previous trading day and 360.5 yuan / ton from last week.

Crude oil fell sharply today, while ethylene glycol fell. In the afternoon, Meg’s external market was light, and the recent cargo negotiation was estimated to be around us $665-670 / ton. There is no improvement in downstream production and sales, and the light stability remains unchanged. Affected by the epidemic, some EO / EG cogeneration units have reduced the load and switched to ethylene glycol.

Forecast: lack of cost support and weak market.

Zinc price fell on March 14

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price fell on March 14, and the zinc market fell. On March 14, the price of zinc was 25448 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from 25488 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with 2021, the price of zinc increased by 15.67% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

The demand of zinc ingot spot market is general, the commencement of downstream galvanizing enterprises is less than expected, and the demand of zinc market is less than expected; The Russian Ukrainian crisis is expected to ease, the high level of natural gas will fall, the smelting cost of European zinc smelters will fall, and the output of zinc ingots is expected to rise. The zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market rose, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, the downward pressure of zinc market remained, and the upward momentum was weakened. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and adjust in the future.

Future forecast

The demand is generally sufficient, and the zinc price fluctuates and adjusts; In the future, the supply is sufficient, the demand falls, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and fall.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China rose first and then stabilized this week. As of March 11, the average market price in East China was 19500 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 19075 yuan / ton at the end of last week, it increased by 2.23% during the week and decreased by 0.38% month on month.

During the week, the TDI market was dominated by stalemate and consolidation. In terms of supply, there was little change in the start-up of domestic TDI plants. Gansu Yinguang and Yantai Juli devices had not been restarted, and the market spot continued to be tight. At the beginning of the week, the terminal polyether market was better, the overseas TDI supply was tight, which led to the increase of domestic exports, and the TDI price rose slightly. However, in the later stage, due to the impact of public health events, the terminal demand weakened, The downstream market entry only needs to be followed up. Under the supply and demand game, the TDI market is stable for the time being. As of the 11th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 19000-19200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is 19500 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation will rise with the market news, and will be sorted up within the week.

The upstream toluene market rose broadly, and the price continued to rise during the week. As of March 11, the domestic average price of toluene was about 8422 yuan / ton, up 5.92% from last weekend. Due to the continuous rise of crude oil caused by geopolitical tensions, the toluene market continued to rise, supported by the rise of cost, the toluene holders had a strong willingness to support the price, and the aftermarket was sorted out and operated at a high level.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the supply side of domestic TDI market is tight, the downstream demand is weak, the supply-demand game is superimposed with the upstream cost support, and the high range of short-term TDI market is mainly sorted out. The future market trend depends on the downstream follow-up.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market continued to fall this week, and there was a certain decline in the spot prices of various brands. As of March 10, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 33250 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 2.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, adipic acid was affected by the price rebound of raw material pure benzene this week, the cost side support was strengthened, and the trading focus moved up 100-200 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. The manufacturer’s price remains high, the dealer’s offer is tentatively high, adiponitrile has been affected by the news of domestic production lines recently, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The price of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, has increased, the change of adiponitrile market is limited, and the cost side support of PA66 is general. At present, the operating rate of the industry is at a high level, and the load level of domestic PA66 industry has basically returned to normal. The inventory position in Hong Kong is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and their resistance to high price sources increases instead of decreasing, and the shipment fluency of merchants is poor. The transaction resistance on the floor has increased, the seller’s mentality has been affected, and the range of offer negotiation this week is still large.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continues to fall this week. The improvement of adiponitrile market on the raw material side is limited, adipic acid market has risen, and PA66 cost side support is general. On the supply side, PA66 enterprises have high load and weak support for spot goods. The terminal has a deep resistance to high price goods. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish and the market momentum is insufficient. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market in the short term.

Magnesium ingot price list

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory tax price of 99.9% of the mainstream areas was 42666.67 yuan / ton on the 9th, down 0.39% on the previous trading day. Compared with Monday, the price rose by about 500 yuan per ton, and the price of magnesium ingots gradually warmed up.

According to the market feedback, recently, some users who just need to enter the market for purchase have increased inquiry purchase, the market transaction has improved, and the price has begun to rebound. In terms of supply and demand, the inventory pressure of the magnesium plant itself is small, and the merchants are in a strong mood to support the price. Today, the general quotation is 43000-44000 yuan / ton; After the downstream customers experienced centralized replenishment, the procurement rhythm slowed down, and the rise of magnesium ingots was limited. In terms of cost, the recent strong operation of upstream lump coal has supported the rising price of blue carbon, the good development of ferrosilicon market, and the raw material cost has promoted the rise of magnesium ingot price.

Business analysts believe that in the short term, the price increase of magnesium ingots is limited and the operation is volatile.

The price of ethylene oxide is temporarily stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream ethylene, crude oil prices continued to rise, and ethylene was boosted and operated stronger. The latest external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1280 / ton, and that in Southeast Asia was US $1280 / ton, up US $20 / ton compared with the previous trading day.

The current low prosperity of the downstream monomer market is mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand. At present, the excess demand can not be effectively transmitted to the terminal, but the supply of raw materials can not be maintained. Although the monomer manufacturers intend to support the market in view of the current high crude oil level, the low terminal operating rate has always restricted the downstream procurement mentality.

Forecast: due to the rising price of ethylene and the pressure on the cost of manufacturers, the center of gravity of ethylene oxide has moved upward due to the influence of raw materials, but the expected rebound degree is limited by the downstream demand, and from the current situation, it is difficult to improve the terminal demand in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride increased slightly by 0.8% in the first week of March (January to June). Among them, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was mainly reported at 23305 yuan / ton on the 1st and 2348.75 yuan / ton on the 6th. At present, the manufacturer’s production is normal and the spot inventory is sufficient.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society showed that the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid in the domestic hydrochloric acid market was about 263 yuan / ton in the current week (1-4 days), rising on the weekend. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this week. Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid; The downstream market rose slightly, and the downstream products had a good enthusiasm for the purchase of hydrochloric acid, which had a positive impact on the price of hydrochloric acid. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market weakened significantly in the week (January 6), with the average price of 7104 yuan / ton on the 6th, down 15.89% from 8446 yuan / ton on the 1st. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the price of natural gas in Europe is rising, but the domestic natural gas market is currently in sufficient supply. With the rise of temperature, the market has gradually entered the off-season of consumption. It is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will continue to fall.

Future forecast: affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the rise of international crude oil has an obvious driving effect on bulk commodities. The water treatment enterprises started after the year, and the production gradually entered a normal state; The market stock is sufficient and the transaction is stable; From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of raw hydrochloric acid fluctuates upward, and the cost support is stronger than that in the early stage; However, from the perspective of fuel cost, there is a certain reduction this week. Therefore, it is expected that the market of polyaluminium chloride in the future will continue to be stable and fluctuate slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the recent international situation and the recent domestic epidemic situation on the market of relevant commodities.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 72926.67 yuan / ton, up 2.87% from 70890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8.76% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 6 and fell by 5 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is relatively volatile.

Supply and demand: the supply of copper concentrate is temporarily abundant, but the disturbance of copper mine production in Peru and Chile has increased, raising the expectation of copper mine supply reduction. The supply of recycled copper has been tightened, and the tax reform policy of renewable value-added tax affects the short-term domestic supply of recycled copper. Before and after the implementation of CS No. 40 document, due to the obvious increase in the demand for bright copper with tickets in the market, the supply of goods with 13% VAT invoices is scarce and the price is high. The production profit of downstream processing plants is poor, and the demand recovery of cable enterprises is not ideal. In February, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to reach 1.666 million, with a month on month decrease of 34.2% and a year-on-year increase of 13.8%; From January to February, 4.196 million vehicles are expected to be completed, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%.

To sum up: the external conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not eased yet, the external market has broken through the upward trend, the domestic consumption is expected to pick up marginally, the domestic growth is also expected to be stable, and the copper price shock is expected to be strong.

From February 24 to March 3, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose. The price was 777500 yuan / ton last weekend and 80000 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 3.23%.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

This week, the price of domestic antimony ingots continued to rise last week. At present, most enterprises have started normally, and the enterprises have basically returned to normal. The construction of downstream market is OK, and some procurement demand further enlivens the market trading, and the market price is dominant. The seller’s attitude of reluctant to sell has been strengthened recently. The market trading is relatively enthusiastic, the market price is higher, and a small amount of replenishment transactions are made in the downstream. The overall trading of the market is still light, and it is still mainly on demand. It is expected that the market price will continue to maintain a stable, medium and strong trend, and the future market will focus on the resumption of production of relevant enterprises.