According to the monitoring data of business agency, from November 5 to November 12, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 11560 yuan / ton to 11400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.38% in the week, a month on month decrease of 10.66% and a year-on-year increase of 94.87%.

Cyclohexanone market is weak. The pure benzene market is stable and small, and the cost of cyclohexanone is stable. The downstream caprolactam supply tends to be more, the market price is weak, the demand for chemical fiber is weak, and the shipment of cyclohexanone is blocked. In addition, the caprolactam units of Haili Dafeng and Inner Mongolia Qinghua enterprises are parked, while cyclohexanone is exported, the market supply is abundant, the high price transaction is weak, and the transaction focus is narrow and low.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of November 15:

region ., Price

East China 10900-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China 11400-11600 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 10800-10900 yuan / ton cash delivery

In terms of raw materials and pure benzene, the price of pure benzene fell. Raw crude oil and styrene in the main downstream fell broadly, which stimulated the negative impact on pure benzene. However, driven by the favorable expectation of its own supply and demand side, pure benzene shows strong resistance to decline, and the decline is far less than that of upstream and downstream products.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

In terms of caprolactam unit, the supply of caprolactam tends to be abundant, the supply is expected to increase, or the external recovery of cyclohexanone by chemical fiber is limited.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

Cyclohexanone is in a situation of oversupply in the short term. Cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect that cyclohexanone fluctuates horizontally in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, since November, the price of hydrogen peroxide has been falling continuously, and it is still in the falling channel. From 1106 yuan / ton to 943 yuan / ton on November 2, a decrease of 14.76%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide of business society from August 16, 2021 to November 7, 2021, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market has been stable since mid August 2021, with a weekly rise and fall of. Since September, the hydrogen peroxide market has warmed up and opened the road of rise, with an increase of 3.94% in the current month. After 11, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a sharp rise, rising continuously until October 19. In the long and short game, the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply and fell sharply. In the week at the end of October, the hydrogen peroxide price fell 14.05%. At the beginning of November, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline, with a decline of more than 8% in the first week.

Bearish hydrogen peroxide led to open the crash mode

Since November, hydrogen peroxide continued to decline, mainly due to the impact of power restriction policy on the terminal, the printing operation rate of terminal paper industry decreased, the demand for hydrogen peroxide decreased, the market transaction became weaker, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers lacked confidence in supporting the price, and the price continued to fall, from 1100 yuan / ton to 860 yuan / ton, with the price falling by more than 200 yuan / ton.

On November 12, the price of hydrogen peroxide in some regions was as follows:

The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Luxi Chemical is 860 yuan / ton, which is 60 yuan / ton lower than that in early November; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 900 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton from the beginning of November; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Anhui Quansheng chemical is 1150 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton lower than that in early November.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business society, believes that the negative factors are still there, and the hydrogen peroxide price will weaken in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. At the beginning of this week, the average price of domestic isopropanol was 8033.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, the average price was 7966.67 yuan / ton. During the week, the price decreased by 0.83%.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from August to October

Isopropanol prices fell this week. At present, the overall market trading atmosphere is light, the confidence of the industry is insufficient, the traders maintain a wait-and-see state, there are few downstream inquiries, the shipment is slow, and the price drops. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 7800-7900 yuan / ton; Most quotation ranges of Jiangsu isopropanol are about 8000 yuan / ton; Most quotations of isopropanol in Zhejiang are about 8000 yuan / ton. Internationally, on November 3, isopropanol in the United States closed stable and isopropanol market in Europe closed up.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price has been lowered. At present, the raw material end trading is cold and weak. The whole bulk chemical market has an obvious decline, the cost support is weak, the mentality of the shippers is under pressure, and the shipping intention is enhanced. However, the pace of replenishment of the terminal into the market is blocked, and the volume of firm offer transactions is limited. The business community expects the acetone market to adjust weakly in the short term. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the average price of domestic acetone was 6475 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 6275 yuan / ton at the end of this week. The price decreased by 3.09% during the week.

In terms of raw propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) maintained a downward trend this week. At the beginning of the week, the market was 8175 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7717 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.89%. After the golden nine silver ten, the chemical product market began to fall. In the face of the double negative impact, it is expected that the recent trend of propylene will continue to fluctuate and decline.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the focus of the domestic isopropanol market is downward. The prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have been lowered one after another, and the support of raw materials for isopropanol is weak. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is poor, the overall transaction is relatively cold, the confidence of the industry is insufficient, more bearish, traders remain on the sidelines, less downstream inquiries and slow shipment. It is expected that the price of isopropanol will continue to tilt downward in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market continued to pick up slightly today (November 9). The average price in the spot market was 5031 yuan / ton, up 0.16% from the previous day and 61.31% year-on-year. PTA futures 2201 closed at 5078, up 28, or 0.55%.

In terms of units, Hengli Dalian 2.2 million tons began maintenance for about 20 days on November 5, Honggang Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons unit is planned to restart in mid November, Baihong 2.5 million tons unit is planned to start maintenance for three weeks on December 1, and Ineos 1.1 million tons unit is planned to be repaired for two weeks at the end of December. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at more than 79%.

The global economy continues to recover to support energy demand, and the supply performance is insufficient. The international crude oil price still runs at a high level. On November 8, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $81.93/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.43/barrel.

The polyester Market in the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is flat, the market wait-and-see mood is obvious, and some factories have procurement actions. There are not many new orders, and the early order production is maintained, and the industrial operating rate is reduced to less than 80%. From the aspects of texturing and weaving, the policy power restriction in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been relaxed month on month, and the operating rate will moderately rise by more than 65%, but it is still difficult to return to the previous high.

Business analysts believe that although the current wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream factories has increased and the procurement enthusiasm is not high, PTA spot is sufficient. However, boosted by the favorable cost side, the maintenance expectation of PTA device and the impact of weather on northern port logistics, the short-term PTA price will maintain a narrow rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3433 yuan / ton on November 1, and the average ex factory price of% powdered monoammonium was 3400 yuan / ton on November 7. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 0.97% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3590 yuan / ton on November 1 and 3590 yuan / ton on November 7. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate fell slightly this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 50%, down from last week. At present, the demand for monoammonium is low, the trend is weak, and the transaction of new orders is limited. The manufacturer’s mentality is unstable and takes a wait-and-see attitude. Due to the poor market atmosphere, the transaction focus was lowered. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3300-3500 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be negotiated.

The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 46%, down from last week. At present, the diammonium market operates weakly and stably, the autumn fertilizer has basically ended, and the market demand is insufficient. The winter storage market has not been opened, the market has no clear guidance, and the enthusiasm in the venue is not high. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3500-3700 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated, and the main order is issued in the early stage.

As for the raw phosphorus ore, the domestic market situation has been sorted out and consolidated at a high level this week. The overall supply of phosphorus ore market in some regions is still tight. The site continues to supply orders from old customers. The downstream stock of phosphorus ore terminal is normal, the market trading atmosphere is acceptable, and most mining enterprises maintain high and firm quotations. As of November 7, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 663 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that at present, the market demand for monoammonium is insufficient and the price is under pressure, so it is a single discussion. The demand for diammonium is weakened and the on-site wait-and-see attitude is obvious. The price of ammonium phosphate raw material is strong and the cost is favorable. It is expected that monoammonium will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, and the price may continue to decline. Diammonium is dominated by weak and stable operation.

1、 Price summary on November 5:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6450 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 6450 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 6650 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 6300 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 6850 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 6702 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + has no plan to increase production. Saudi Arabia raised the official price of crude oil, and the international oil price rebounded significantly on Friday. Data released by Baker Hughes on the 5th showed that the number of active oil rigs in the United States increased by 6 month on month and 224 year-on-year this week. The increase of US crude oil production and the late resumption of Iran nuclear negotiations may be bad for oil prices.

Crude oil prices rebounded last Friday, boosting related commodities; Terminal gasoline rebounded, and the price of toluene remained stable today.

Plasticizer DOP prices continued to fall this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, DOP prices continued the downward trend in October this week, fluctuated and fell, and the overall DOP market fell weakly this week. As of November 4, the DOP price was 12450 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan / ton or 3.49% from 12900 yuan / ton on October 29 last weekend; DOP market fell this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol failed to rebound and rise this week, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell slightly. This week, the price of isooctanol fell slightly due to the decline in the price of raw material coal to syngas; Under the national macro-control, coal related products are easy to fall but difficult to rise, the cost of isooctanol is reduced, the price of isooctanol is under great pressure, the price of isooctanol is reduced, the cost of plasticizer DOP is reduced, and the downward pressure of DOP is increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell steadily this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly this week, and the phthalic anhydride market fell steadily. Affected by the rising price of phthalic anhydride, the cost of phthalic anhydride is still supported, the downward pressure of phthalic anhydride is weak, and the upward momentum still exists.

PVC fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PVC price fell sharply this week. As of November 4, the average price of PVC was 9470 yuan / ton, down 8.06% from 10300 yuan / ton last weekend; PVC prices fell sharply this week, plasticizer demand remained weak, downstream customers of plasticizer had poor purchasing enthusiasm, and DOP prices fell under great pressure.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, believes that the support of DOP raw materials is not available this week, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride decreased slightly this week, and the cost of DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the price of PVC fell sharply, the demand for DOP was weak, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream customers was poor, the acceptance of high priced DOP was poor, and the downward pressure of DOP was great. Generally speaking, the cost of DOP has decreased, the demand is insufficient, the upward momentum of DOP is insufficient, and the downward pressure is great. DOP prices are expected to fluctuate slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline rose in a wide range in October. After the national day, the price rose rapidly, and the rising trend continued in the second half of the month. On October 1, the price in Shandong was 11100-11320 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11300-11500 yuan / ton; On October 29, the price of aniline in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 14500 yuan / ton, an increase of 26.87% over the beginning of the month and 111.44% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Raw material, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell after a wide rise this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 7880 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month is 7600 yuan / ton. The highest price of this month appears on October 13, and the price is 8580 yuan / ton. The lowest price appears on October 29, and the price is 7600 yuan / ton. This month’s decline was 3.55%, an increase of 111.11% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 980 yuan / ton.

Nitric acid: nitric acid fluctuated and fell after a slight rise this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 3516.67 yuan / ton on October 1 and 3286.67 yuan / ton on October 29, down 6.54% from the beginning of the month and up 103.3% from the same period last year.

During the national day, a set of 100000 t / a equipment in Nanhua was restarted on October 5; Due to raw material problems, Shanxi Tianji plant was operated at reduced load; Jinling aniline plant operates under reduced load due to power limitation. The overall operating rate of aniline decreased and the spot supply in the market decreased; The demand for downstream terminal additives is good, the downstream delivery mood is good, the inventory of aniline enterprises remains low, and the supply in the spot market is tight, supporting the wide rise of prices. The raw material level rose to a high level, with strong support for aniline and high cost of aniline.

On the 14th, due to an accident in Jiangsu Fuqiang, the restart time of aniline plant was delayed, which led to another rise of aniline. The operating rate of aniline plant was not high, the demand for downstream additives increased, the resistance to high priced aniline was not strong, the market continued the tight supply pattern, and the factory was reluctant to sell, which supported the continuous strengthening of aniline prices throughout October.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the cost support of pure benzene is still strong in the short term. If the production capacity of pure benzene of Zhejiang Petrochemical is improved, the supply of pure benzene will increase in the later stage. Some downstream still limit power, reduce load and stop, and weak demand limits the recovery of pure benzene prices. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly in early November.

Cost side: the expected trend of raw material side is weak, and the cost side support is weak. Supply side: the aniline units of Dongying Huatai and Shandong Jinmao were shut down for maintenance at the end of the month, the restart of Jiangsu Fuqiang unit was delayed, the operating rate of Aniline Unit was low, and the supply was expected to be reduced. Demand side: at present, the downstream demand is stable. Overall, aniline is expected to run at a high level in the short term. In the later stage, if the raw material level continues to decline, aniline may fall. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, the dynamics of aniline plant and the trend of raw materials.

In October, domestic ethyl acetate reversed the rise of last month, and the price fluctuated downward. The price of upstream acetic acid continued to decline after the festival, with a deep decline and weakened cost support. In addition, the main enterprises resumed production and local supply increased, resulting in oversupply in the market. After superposition, the price has reached a high point, and the callback is inevitable. According to the monitoring of business society, ethyl acetate decreased by 3.97% in October, and the current price is in the range of 9400-9800 yuan / ton.

First of all, according to the upstream acetic acid market, the price of acetic acid fell in October. According to the monitoring of business society, the decline of acetic acid was 24.5%. Domestic acetic acid enterprises have more devices, stable operation and increased inventory, while the downstream is affected by limited power production, the downstream operation is low, there is no significant increase in market demand, the market purchase is still rational, and the on-site trading is light, resulting in the continuous increase of acetic acid inventory. In addition, the market source consumption is slow, and the quotation of domestic acetic acid enterprises is constantly reduced in order to maintain shipment.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, firstly, at the supply end, the supply of ethyl acetate increased significantly compared with the previous month, mainly due to the resumption of production of main manufacturers in Shandong. At the same time, Anhui and Jiangsu plants have also resumed production one after another. The supply expectation has amplified the market bearish effect, and the market has changed from short supply before the festival to oversupply.

On the demand side, the market demand has not improved much except for the normal rigid demand, and the downstream goods preparation before the festival also leads to more cautious delivery after the festival. In addition, the downstream industries are affected by power rationing, and the demand is weaker. This became the last straw to crush the price of ethyl acetate.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of business society believe that the current ethyl acetate Market has sufficient supply, and it is expected that the downstream will be difficult to return to normal in the short term. Therefore, the oversupply in the market will continue for some time, so the price of ethyl acetate is easy to fall and difficult to rise. However, considering that the current price has reached a relatively low level, the downward space in the later stage is also limited.

The MIBK market fluctuated downward in October. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer was 23275 yuan / ton on October 1 and 22025 yuan / ton on October 31, with an overall market decline of 5.37%. As can be seen from the trend chart below, the offer tends to be stable, and the MIBK market in East China is negotiated at 22000-22500 yuan / ton.

In the first ten days of October, the MIBK market rose above, the raw material end rose rapidly after the National Day holiday, and the operating rate of MIBK is expected to decline after the holiday. Among them, the 15000 T / a unit of Wanhua chemical decreased to 50% operation, and the 50000 T / A units of Ningbo Zhenyang and Zhenjiang Li Changrong plan to stop for maintenance for one month on the 18th. The news of reducing the negative parking of devices in the yard continued to spread, the downstream inquired one after another, and the offers of cargo holders increased, The low level is not out, and the support from the raw material side is strong, and the market intention is higher.

Since mid September, the 15000 T / a unit of Wanhua chemical has returned to 90% operation, and since the 13th, the whole industrial chain at the raw material end has turned around and experienced a significant downward trend. In the downstream, except for the consumption and balance of antioxidant, the market demand for other downstream solvents and coatings is general, and the purchase volume is expected to decrease. Therefore, the good times are not long, the increase is small, but it quickly enters the downward channel, By the end of the month, the negotiation in East China had reached about 22000 yuan / ton.

Devices in the industry: the 50000 T / a MIBK device of Li Changrong in Zhenjiang was shut down on October 18 for about one month, the monthly operating rate of 15000 T / a MIBK device of Wanhua chemical was adjusted from 50% to 90%, and the 15000 T / a MIBK device in Zhenyang, Ningbo was shut down.

From the perspective of the business community, the MIBK market has entered a cooling off period. After a round of decline, the market has gradually stabilized. The high price of the carrier has been reported and the low price has been reported. The demand for antioxidant in the downstream is OK, and other downstream replenishment is general. The 50000 T / a device maintenance of Li Changrong in Zhenjiang in late October is expected to start in mid November. In November, the supply is expected to increase, and the supply pressure of the carrier is only increasing, Business community expects MIBK market to be weak in November.