1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline rose in a wide range in October. After the national day, the price rose rapidly, and the rising trend continued in the second half of the month. On October 1, the price in Shandong was 11100-11320 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11300-11500 yuan / ton; On October 29, the price of aniline in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 14500 yuan / ton, an increase of 26.87% over the beginning of the month and 111.44% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Raw material, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell after a wide rise this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 7880 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month is 7600 yuan / ton. The highest price of this month appears on October 13, and the price is 8580 yuan / ton. The lowest price appears on October 29, and the price is 7600 yuan / ton. This month’s decline was 3.55%, an increase of 111.11% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 980 yuan / ton.

Nitric acid: nitric acid fluctuated and fell after a slight rise this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 3516.67 yuan / ton on October 1 and 3286.67 yuan / ton on October 29, down 6.54% from the beginning of the month and up 103.3% from the same period last year.

During the national day, a set of 100000 t / a equipment in Nanhua was restarted on October 5; Due to raw material problems, Shanxi Tianji plant was operated at reduced load; Jinling aniline plant operates under reduced load due to power limitation. The overall operating rate of aniline decreased and the spot supply in the market decreased; The demand for downstream terminal additives is good, the downstream delivery mood is good, the inventory of aniline enterprises remains low, and the supply in the spot market is tight, supporting the wide rise of prices. The raw material level rose to a high level, with strong support for aniline and high cost of aniline.

On the 14th, due to an accident in Jiangsu Fuqiang, the restart time of aniline plant was delayed, which led to another rise of aniline. The operating rate of aniline plant was not high, the demand for downstream additives increased, the resistance to high priced aniline was not strong, the market continued the tight supply pattern, and the factory was reluctant to sell, which supported the continuous strengthening of aniline prices throughout October.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the cost support of pure benzene is still strong in the short term. If the production capacity of pure benzene of Zhejiang Petrochemical is improved, the supply of pure benzene will increase in the later stage. Some downstream still limit power, reduce load and stop, and weak demand limits the recovery of pure benzene prices. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly in early November.

Cost side: the expected trend of raw material side is weak, and the cost side support is weak. Supply side: the aniline units of Dongying Huatai and Shandong Jinmao were shut down for maintenance at the end of the month, the restart of Jiangsu Fuqiang unit was delayed, the operating rate of Aniline Unit was low, and the supply was expected to be reduced. Demand side: at present, the downstream demand is stable. Overall, aniline is expected to run at a high level in the short term. In the later stage, if the raw material level continues to decline, aniline may fall. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, the dynamics of aniline plant and the trend of raw materials.