1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weak. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers at the beginning of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, and the price of cyclohexanone at the end of the week was 7350 yuan / ton, down 0.45% in the week. The price was 0.45% lower than that of the same period last month and 21.67% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market of cyclohexanone was weak this week, with light trading. The pure benzene market is weak and downward, and the cost side is not stable, but the downstream caprolactam deficit factories maintain low load operation. Most of the factories have met the supply of caprolactam, and they basically do not need to take out cyclohexanone. The solvent factories are slow to return to work, and the demand for cyclohexanone in their own solvent market is too small, the overall market demand is sluggish, the transaction is weak, and the market shipment is released Slow, cyclohexanone to maintain low load operation, part of the factory high price offer down 100 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: affected by the three consecutive declines in crude oil in the week, the prices of bulk commodities and external market fell, and the peripheral support of pure benzene weakened. In the week, the terminal enterprises returned to work one after another, but the progress was slow. Styrene and phenol directly downstream of pure benzene still faced a large shipping pressure, the load continued to be low, and the enthusiasm for the delivery of pure benzene was not high. The inventory pressure of the main refineries was relatively high, and the listing was lowered from 150 yuan / ton to 5350 yuan / ton on the 26th. Although some participants speculated that the spread of health events in South Korea might lead to the possibility of reducing the subsequent arrival of pure benzene in East China, hoping to support the price, the price in East China remained volatile and weak.

Caprolactam: this week, the caprolactam market fell slightly, the sentiment in the market was still pessimistic, the process of terminal resumption was slow, the staff of the downstream small and medium-sized enterprises were still short of jobs and orders, the actual demand was not improved for the time being, the low price of polymerization chips and the shipment had not yet restricted the enthusiasm of raw material procurement, and the manufacturers with high caprolactam storage location negotiated the shipment according to their own conditions, North China raised 100 yuan / ton, while East China’s price still fell.

Adipic acid: this week, adipic acid is in a chaotic downward trend. It is worth noting that most industries and enterprises in the downstream have been recovering in succession, and the logistics and transportation situation has basically improved. However, the overall load in the downstream is not high, the rigid demand for raw materials is small, and the purchase is cautious, and the production and sales are gradually weakening. However, the weak raw material end and the bad news on the periphery hit the market confidence more obviously. In the week, crude oil returned to the bottom of the “5″ word again, breaking a new low in the past year. The main raw material of adipic acid, pure benzene, was also weak on the outside. The listing of the main business reduced 150 yuan / ton, making the negative mentality more obvious at the same time

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of cost, crude oil and pure benzene are in weak operation, and the cost support is insufficient; on the demand side, due to the sluggish demand of the terminal market, downstream caprolactam maintains low load operation, and the demand for solvent is less, and it is expected that the purchase demand for cyclohexanone is still low. However, the recent shipment of cyclohexanone is not smooth, and the social inventory pressure is too high. According to the analysis of cyclohexanone in the business society, the market of cyclohexanone in the short term is biased Weak operation.

Market Overview:

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong fell first and then rose. At the beginning of the month, the average price of dichloromethane was 2570 yuan / ton, which fell to 1900 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, down 26.07%. At the end of the month, it rose to 2480 yuan / ton, up 30.53%, and fell 3.5% in the whole month.

Market analysis:

Product: affected by the epidemic situation, the downstream market demand is hard to recover, and the dichloromethane enterprises are still able to start work, with high inventory. Before the middle of February, the enterprises continued to reduce the inventory pressure and reduce the price for shipment; after the middle of February, the dichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong generally stopped to reduce the load, including Shandong Jinling 440000 tons / year device, Dongying Jinmao a set of 40000 tons / year still in the state of stop, Luxi The 400000 T / a chemical plant and 280000 T / a plant in Dongyue, Shandong Province are in semi negative operation, so the inventory of the enterprise is also reduced, and the quotation of the enterprise continues to rise. At present, most enterprises in Shandong Province pay more attention to inventory pricing, and the main quotation is about 2430-2500 yuan / ton; the quotation in Jiangsu Province is about 2900 yuan / ton; the quotation in Jiangxi Liwen is about 2750 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the terminal enterprises in the natural gas market have a high enthusiasm for resumption of work, the market demand has increased, the overall delivery and investment has turned better, the liquid price has been rising continuously, and it will fall back towards the end of the month, at present, about 3053 yuan / ton; in the upstream, the methanol production enterprises in the main production areas of Shaanxi and Mongolia are temporarily available for shipment, the traders are mainly in charge of receiving goods, some of them are connected with the bidding of the downstream enterprises, and the transportation vehicles are recovering At present, there is no obvious change in the start-up of downstream enterprises, with partial replenishment as the main part, at about 2022 yuan / ton; the overall supply and demand of the liquid chlorine market are weak, and the enterprise has a strong attitude towards price fixing, but the trade and investment in the industry is poor, at present, about 100-300 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is still at a low level, and the intra industry trading is relatively weak; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry are not at a high level, the demand is flat, and the price support for dichloromethane is insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, dichloromethane enterprises in Shandong province mostly depend on inventory pricing, and the start-up of enterprises is still at a low level. The situation of tight spot supply is hard to recover in a short time. However, the downstream market is just in need, and the trading is flat, and it is expected to be stable and upward in a short time.

This week (2.17-2.21) the price of NBR continued to be weak. According to the monitoring, the price at the beginning of the week was 15800 yuan / ton, and the price of NBR at the end of the week was 15733 yuan / ton, slightly down 0.42%.

From the aspect of raw materials, the price of raw materials is low, and the cost is negative in the face of NBR: according to the understanding of the business community, the ex factory price of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile is all the way down due to the fall of crude oil price, and as of February 21, the price of butadiene is 6393 yuan / ton; the price of acrylonitrile Sinopec Chemical Sales North China and East China company is reduced to 9500 yuan / ton in February.

From the perspective of NBR enterprises, the overall operating rate of NBR enterprises has declined, some of the prices of NBR are stable, and most of them are not quoted. According to the business agency, the NBR unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates normally, with stable ex factory price. At present, n41e reports 15000 yuan / ton, 3305e reports 15500 yuan / ton, and 3308e reports 15600 yuan / ton. During the shutdown of shunze NBR unit in Ningbo, the main market price of NBR 3355 is 15000-15400 yuan / ton. Nandi NBR unit operates normally, and the main market price of NBR 1052 is 16300-16800 yuan / ton.

In terms of the downstream, at present, the resumption of work in the downstream is still slow. In addition, the traffic has not yet fully recovered, the delivery of NBR is not ideal, and the procurement strength in the downstream is weak, which has a strong negative effect on NBR.

Outlook for the future

According to the NBR analysts of the business agency, the sharp decline in the price of raw materials and the overall low price of goods in the industry have formed a negative situation for NBR, and it is expected that the NBR market will maintain a slight weak situation in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic potassium nitrate was slightly higher this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4337.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4350.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.29%. The current price was 3.06% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market was slightly explored. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the potassium nitrate enterprises are in the process of resumption. Now, Wentong potash Group Co., Ltd., Wenshui Zhenxing chemical fertilizer Co., Ltd. and Jiaocheng County Hesheng Chemical Co., Ltd. have resumed their work. The domestic and imported supply of potassium chloride in the upstream is sufficient, and the current price is stable. To support the cost of potassium nitrate, the trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market is fair, the downstream maintains just need to purchase, and the market of potassium nitrate is slightly explored. Domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium nitrate analysts of the business association think: this week, the market of potassium nitrate is slightly up, potassium chloride is relatively stable as a whole, and the price fluctuation is not big. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will be consolidated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market fell slightly this week, down 1.19% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: affected by high inventory and low downstream operating rate, the price of toluene in domestic market continues to bottom out this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5100 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the overall international oil price this week showed a shock rebound trend. As of Friday, Brent rose 4.07% at sight, Brent futures rose 2.03%, WTI futures rose 2.20%, and Dubai futures rose 0.31%.

On the downstream side, in terms of TDI, the current external market is about US $660 / T FOB Ara. Domestic enterprises have not yet returned to work and have not yet made a quotation. It is expected that the future TDI market will follow suit. In PX market, the domestic market price this week is about 6300 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 717 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 737 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will maintain a stable trend next week.

 
3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: continue to focus on the trend of crude oil next week. In general, with the return to work of the enterprise approaching, the superimposed crude oil price takes the lead in stabilizing and rebounding. It is expected that the toluene market will experience a small shock and rebound trend next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt is stable this week, and the price of asphalt is reported to be 3420 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the international crude oil is running at a low level this week, with a large fluctuation range. The operating rate of asphalt plants in refineries has dropped to a low level. At present, the asphalt market is in the off-season stage, and the epidemic situation has little impact on the asphalt market. This week, the asphalt market is stable.

Industrial chain: the international crude oil market is also affected by China’s epidemic situation. At present, China’s crude oil demand is severely suppressed, and the demand growth is relatively limited. At the same time, Russia’s attitude on deepening production reduction is not clear, and the crude oil market has doubts about the implementation of real production reduction. This week, the international oil price is running at a low level, with a large fluctuation range.

Asphalt Market: affected by the epidemic situation, the asphalt market is restricted by the macro environment, the resumption of terminal projects is not ideal, and there are certain restrictions on logistics and transportation. The overall delivery situation of the refinery is poor. Under the pressure of increasing inventory, the operating rate of the refinery continues to decline. At present, the asphalt market is still in a state of price or no market. At present, the overall performance of the asphalt market is weak supply and demand, and the price performance of the asphalt market is average.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at business club, believes that: the price of international crude oil market has fallen to a low level, but it is the off-season of asphalt market demand at present. In addition, the resumption of terminal projects is not ideal, and it is expected that the market price of asphalt will maintain stable operation in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is still strong this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2187 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2262 yuan / ton, up 3.43% in the week, and the price rose 6.72% month on month, down 0.07% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic methanol market presents regional market, and each region adjusts its price according to its own supply and demand and downstream stock up rhythm. During the week, Guanzhong, Hebei and other places increased significantly, while Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong and other places showed weak trend. At present, the mainland stock up is close to the end, and the downstream inventory is high. The trend of the port is strong, methanol futures are up and down, and the trading focus of East China and South China continues to rise. Due to the cold wave and the shortage of natural gas in Iran, the local government has comprehensively suspended and reduced the supply of raw materials for natural gas methanol in Iran in order to protect the people’s livelihood, including the shutdown of ZPC, Kaveh and Marjan units, and the commencement of KPC and FPC dropped to 70-80%. This week’s methanol port inventory decreased, with a total inventory of 787000 tons in East and South China, down 60600 tons from last week.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. On the enterprise side, the offer is temporarily stable, the upstream methanol market is high, and the cost is good. However, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the downstream market has been shut down, the market trading is light, and the actual single transaction is reduced. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the demand side is becoming more and more light, and the remaining formaldehyde enterprises will stop work after the inventory is full. It is expected that the formaldehyde market will run steadily next week.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market rose significantly this week. Near the end of the year, the soaring raw material methanol gave acetic acid cost support. At present, the social inventory of domestic acetic acid is relatively low, and the downstream stock was more active before the year, which promoted the smooth transaction and purchase in the market. The dual support of acetic acid market cost and supply led to the continuous increase of transactions. The rising trend gradually attracts the downstream purchase and stock up increment. The failure of Tianjin Soda Plant Equipment aggravates the market supply tension, with the most obvious increase in the North China market. The market in East China is relatively sufficient, with limited overall growth and smooth market transactions. Due to the overall shortage of spot goods of Henan suppliers in Central China and the active purchase and stock up in the lower reaches, the market in Central China continued to rise slightly and was optimistic. However, due to the scattered and small downstream demand in South China market, the market has not been able to follow the rising trend, and the supplier maintains that small orders are mainly for fixed customers, and the market is relatively stable.

Dimethyl ether: the atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether transaction was active this week, and the transaction price continued to rise. At present, the operating rate of dimethyl ether in domestic market is low, about 15.13%, down 0.06%, down 0.39%. Shandong Yuhuang and some enterprises in Hebei continued to park, the market supply decreased, and the market pressure on goods appropriately eased; in addition, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the intention of terminal goods preparation strengthened. Even though there is a downward trend in the price of liquefied gas, the price difference between gas and ether is still large, and the intention of terminal purchase of DME is quite high. Some mainstream enterprises have low inventory and limited sales, and the price of DME continues to rise.

3、 Future forecast

Business community view: on the positive side, the procurement volume of olefins in Northwest China is quite considerable, with stable long-term implementation and low inventory of most manufacturers in Northwest China; in January, the international methanol plant maintenance was centralized, with an estimated import arrival of 900000 tons; because of the cold wave, Iran’s natural gas shortage, the local government has suspended and reduced the supply of raw materials of natural gas methanol in Iran in an all-round way to protect the people’s livelihood. In terms of bad news, the southwest natural gas methanol plant was restarted in the middle and late of January; the output of new methanol plants in the northwest was released; some olefin plants in the port, northwest and Shandong issued the first quarter maintenance plan, such as Yangmei Hengtong, Zhejiang Xingxing, etc.; some enterprises in the Northwest were not in place. At present, most of the methanol plants have completed the pre-sale before the Spring Festival, and the downstream is also fully stocked. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that near the end of the year, the domestic vehicles for hazardous chemicals will be shut down in succession, the methanol trade will also be stopped, the market participants will be delisted in succession, and the methanol market will show a pattern of whether there is a price or not. After the festival, the volume of imported goods is expected to shrink, and the North-South arbitrage window is opened, focusing on the market situation of methanol after the year.

This week (1.13-1.17), the price of NBR is stable, with a price of 16200 yuan / ton.

Low price of raw butadiene

The price of raw materials is low, the support strength of cost surface is weakened: the price of butadiene is low, the support for NBR is weakened. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene at the beginning of the week was 8112 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the week was 8084 yuan / ton, slightly down 0.35%.

Stable ex factory price of petrochemicals

The unit of NBR manufacturer in China is in normal operation, the factory price of NBR is stable, and the overall operation rate of NBR unit is around 70%. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 65000 T / a unit is in normal operation. This week, the factory price of Lanhua NBR is stable. At present, n41e reports 15000 yuan / ton, 3305e reports 15500 yuan / ton, and 3308e reports 15600 yuan / ton.

Downstream inquiry on demand

The demand of the downstream plant of NBR is weak, and the demand inquiry for NBR is more on demand, so the overall NBR market is relatively weak and stable.

Outlook for the future

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business club, believes that on the one hand, the price of raw materials is low, on the other hand, the transaction is light near the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the NBR market will maintain a weak and stable position in the later period.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s domestic bromine market was weak and stable, with weak market supply and demand. The average price of bromine remained at about 30444 yuan / ton, down 12.39% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, most bromine production enterprises in China have entered the parking period. The industry is in a low negative operation as a whole, and the spot market supply is tight. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the market is soft in trading and investment, the overall market supply and demand are weak, and the price is stable. At present, the enterprise’s quotation is maintained between 29500-31000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the downstream flame retardant market is close to the Spring Festival, the market is slightly depressed, and the trading atmosphere in the industry is flat; the pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries are on the low side, and the overall impact on bromine price is negative.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, near the Spring Festival holiday, the overall supply and demand of bromine chemical industry in China are weak, and some downstream enterprises rely on imported bromine to maintain production. At present, the price trend is relatively stable, and it is expected that the bromine price will maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average factory price of light potash in China this week is 6325.00 yuan / ton, including tax. The current price is down 9.32% year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potash market was low consolidation. Affected by the approaching of Spring Festival, the market of potash market was not warm, the trading atmosphere was cold, and the demand side was weak, resulting in the low consolidation of potash price. The actual turnover of the market is relatively general, while the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is at a low level, the overall inventory is at a low level, the purchasing market momentum is general, and the domestic potassium carbonate market is volatile and consolidated. According to the statistics of the business agency: in January, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6600 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that this week’s potash market is low consolidation, holidays are approaching, trading market activity is low, and potash manufacturers have a negative attitude. In the short term, potash prices may mainly be consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).