1、 Price trend of formic acid

(Figure: P value curve of formic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

On October 27, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market had a steady rise. According to the data of the business club, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises as of October 27 was 2200 yuan / ton, up 6.45% compared with last Tuesday (October 20), and 24.53% higher on a three-month cycle. At present, the downstream potassium formate and calcium formate industries have a steady demand for formic acid, the pharmaceutical industry orders have remained stable as a whole, and the leather and pesticide industries have gradually started to steadily improve. The formic acid market is still trading well, and the market is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises have increased.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of formic acid of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise price specification date

Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. 2200 yuan / T, use level: industrial grade; content: ≥ 85.0%; grade: excellent product: 2020-10-27

Zibo pulisi Chemical Co., Ltd. 2200 yuan / T, use level: industrial grade; content: ≥ 85.0%; grade: excellent product: October 27, 2020

Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. 2400 yuan / ton, use level: industrial grade; content: ≥ 85.0%; grade: excellent product: October 27, 2020

For the upstream caustic soda, on October 26, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was relatively strong. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 450-530 yuan / ton. October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side of caustic soda has certain support. At the same time, October is also the maintenance peak period, so the supply side may tighten. It is estimated that the short-term caustic soda price may be stronger; the upstream liquid ammonia market will rise slightly in the near future (10.01-10.27); the upstream sulfuric acid market will rise slightly in Shandong Province in the near future (10.01-10.27), and the upstream sulfur market will rise slightly in the near future with good cost support, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the sulfuric acid supply is normal, and the factory price of sulfuric acid in the future market will fluctuate slightly As of October 26, the average price quoted by enterprises was 1917.50 yuan / ton, up 6.82% compared with October 1.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on October 26, 2020, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities with increase were DMF (20.16%), butadiene (12.52%), 1,4-butanediol (7.48%). There were 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis. The top three products were propylene oxide (- 2.99%), propylene (- 2.45%) and isopropanol (- 2.05%). The average rise or fall was 0.6%.

3、 Future forecast

According to formic acid analysts of the business community, the raw material prices are stable and strong in the near future, and the cost support has been enhanced, and the follow-up of new downstream orders is acceptable. It is expected that the industrial grade formic acid market will be stable and better in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

This week, the price trend of some domestic rare earth market rose, heavy rare earth price rose slightly, light rare earth market neodymium series price rose, but praseodymium series price decreased. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on October 25 was 354 points, unchanged with yesterday, 64.60% lower than the highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 30% higher than 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015 .63%。 (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 326500 yuan / ton, 1.24% higher than 322500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 414000 yuan / ton, 1.22% higher than 409000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 348000 yuan / ton, 0.29% higher than 347000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of metal neodymium was 440000 yuan / ton, 1.62% higher than 433000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The price of praseodymium oxide was 317500 yuan / ton, which was 1.55% lower than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend price of praseodymium oxide was 630000 yuan / ton, down 3.82% from 655000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

In the recent domestic light rare earth, the downstream procurement is relatively normal in recent years, with a strong wait-and-see attitude, little change in trading volume, loss of support for manufacturers’ prices, some prices in the light rare earth market remain at a low level, and the price trend of other products is mainly stable. Recently, the demand and stock situation of permanent magnet manufacturers is general, the price of praseodymium and neodymium rare earth has increased slightly, and the market price of light rare earth is still low Recently, due to the normal supply and poor demand of praseodymium series products, the price of praseodymium series is going down. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation on rare earth production and export, overseas demand has not improved, and the domestic market price of light rare earth has remained low in recent years.

The price trend of domestic direct family rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.64 million yuan / ton, and the price trend of this week was 0.61%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.625 million yuan / ton, which was 0.31% higher this week. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan is relatively large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth, but the information of collection and storage is not available It is confirmed that Myanmar’s customs clearance still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths, but the downstream demand is not positive in the near future, and the market price of heavy rare earth has increased slightly. In recent years, the market is general, heavy rare earth prices remain high level, downstream demand has not improved significantly, heavy rare earth market price rise is not big.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, and the demand has not changed much. The price of rare earth in China rose slightly this week.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earths has not changed much. In addition, the downstream procurement is normal, and the trading market has risen. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth will rise slightly in the future.

Price trend of 441 silicon

On October 23, the price of silicon metal (441) rose slightly. According to business agency data, on October 23, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 12066.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.58% compared with 11650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (10.1); 10491.67 yuan / ton, up 15.01%; 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.97%; and a 2.40% increase this week

The price of 441 silicon in different regions on 23 May is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 11500-11600 yuan / ton, Sichuan is 11800-11900 yuan / ton, Kunming is 11800-11900 yuan / ton, Shanghai is 12600-12800 yuan / ton, Tianjin port is 12200-12300 yuan / ton, Huangpu port is 12100-12300 yuan / ton 。

Main reasons for market strength:

1. awesome power

In October, export orders picked up, foreign investors had a strong demand for standby stocks, and the export situation improved slightly.

2. Recovery of domestic demand

At present, the mainstream silicon factories are optimistic and willing to support prices. Some manufacturers have raised their prices. In the market, the mentality of the sellers is becoming more and more reluctant to sell.

Crude oil and condensate production in OPEC member countries and non OPEC countries has been interrupted since last year, according to the hydrocarbon processing network on October 14. These disruptions have led to a reduction in liquid fuel supply, together with a reduction in crude oil production agreed by OPEC and the allies, which has led to a reduction in global liquid fuel stocks since June.

So far in 2020, the average daily oil supply disruption has been 4.6 million barrels per day, reaching 5.2 million barrels in June, the highest level since 2011, when the energy information agency (EIA) began to track monthly interruptions in liquid fuel production. In 2019, global oil supply disruptions averaged 3.1 million barrels a day. In calculating supply disruptions, the EIA does not take into account the closure of oil fields for economic reasons or the decline in oil demand.

Non OPEC oil producers, mainly from the United States and Canada, saw oil supply disruptions rise to nearly 800000 B / D in August. In Canada, due to a coronavirus outbreak at the production site, operators ordered non essential staff to stop working, resulting in production interruption. In the United States, disruptions caused by hurricanes and unplanned maintenance affected oil production this summer. Other non OPEC countries have caused temporary closures for various reasons, such as an outbreak of coronavirus among workers, logistical problems in transporting workers or equipment during the outbreak, fires in Canadian field operations or other natural disasters.

In its short-term energy outlook (steo), EIA released estimates of historically unplanned production disruptions. In the estimation of disruption, the EIA distinguishes between production decline due to unplanned production disruption, permanent capacity loss and voluntary production reduction. The EIA estimates unplanned disruptions based on the difference between the estimated effective capacity (the level of supply available within a year) and the estimated production.

The international crude oil price fluctuated in a narrow range, the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit load of the refinery was high, and the domestic product oil supply was sufficient, and the product oil price fell slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on October 16 was 5307 yuan / ton, down 0.86% from the beginning of the week; on October 16, the price of diesel oil was 4621 yuan / ton, down 0.04% from the beginning of the week.

Saudi Arabia cut crude oil prices in the middle of the week; demand for crude oil in Europe has been declining due to the impact of the new crown; Saudi Arabia has put pressure on OPEC and Russia to reduce crude oil production; EIA data show that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.818 million barrels in the week of October 9. The international crude oil market is intertwined with long and short news, and the international oil price is operating in a narrow range. WTI crude oil prices rose 1.28% and Brent crude oil prices rose 0.19%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the post holiday replenishment demand did not bring substantial improvement to the refined oil market, and the car travel decreased after the festival, the terminal demand decreased, and the overall performance of gasoline demand was poor. In terms of diesel, driven by downstream rush work after the festival, the demand is relatively strong. The demand for infrastructure construction and outdoor oil consumption increased. However, under the current abundant supply fundamentals, refineries mainly promote shipment.

On October 16, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery was maintained at a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the lack of favorable international crude oil market will keep the international crude oil price under pressure; and the domestic refined oil supply is sufficient, and refineries have more sales promotion, and it is expected that the domestic oil product price will continue to decline steadily.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose sharply this week. As of October 16, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 6005 yuan / ton, up 3.94% compared with the beginning of the week and 6.14% higher than the same period of last month.

After the National Day Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the overall inventory of domestic ethyl acetate Market decreased significantly. In addition, some enterprises reduced the burden of maintenance, resulting in tight market supply, increased downstream market demand, strong cost support, and the ethyl acetate Market increased significantly. At present, East China is about 6000 yuan / ton, North China is about 5900 yuan / ton, and South China is about 6300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the overall inventory of acetic acid market was low, and Jiantao in Hebei Province stopped for a short time within the week, which aggravated the tense situation of market supply. In addition, the market demand increased, and the price of acetic acid continued to rise. The price of corn for ethanol is still at a high level, and there is not much supply in the market. However, the downstream market is resistant to the high price of ethanol and will remain stable in a short time. At present, ethanol in East China is about 6500 yuan / ton.

The international market price of ethyl acetate is strong, and the port price in European market is about 820-850 euro / ton, and that in North America is about 700 US dollars / ton.

According to the ethyl acetate analysts of the business club, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is tight, the downstream terminal demand is better, and the support from the cost side is strong, and multiple favorable factors support the price of ethyl acetate.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on August 27, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7033 yuan / ton, with a slight price fluctuation, ranging from 100 to 300 yuan / ton. The carbon black market was mainly volatile this week.

Market conditions

The increase of carbon black production fell down

In the first half of 2020, the total output of carbon black in the first half of 2020 was 2.22 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. Among the key statistical enterprises, there were 5 enterprises with positive growth in output. The growth rate of Shanxi Anlun, Shandong Jinneng technology, Shanxi top three and Shandong Lianke was relatively high. The output of other 9 enterprises decreased compared with that of the same period. The enterprises with a large decline were Cabot and Jiang Xiheimao, Longxing Chemical, Qingzhou Boao, Dashiqiao Liaobin, Shandong Neste and other enterprises.

According to the statistics of carbon black branch, the industry as a whole is in a state of loss in 2019, with a sharp decline compared with the same period, and the total profit decreased by 105%. Among the statistics, 11 enterprises lost money, and the loss area reached 32%.

In the first half of 2020, the overall loss of the industry continued, and the amount of loss was further expanded, and the loss area reached nearly 50%.

Related policies

In June this year, the Ministry of ecology and environment launched the implementation of hierarchical management of environmental performance of carbon black industry. In the coming heating season, it will change the situation that the previous carbon black enterprises have different standards for environmental protection management and local governments have tight or loose environmental protection law enforcement. Carbon black believes that through the hierarchical management of environmental performance, enterprises that do well can benefit, so as to realize the protection of the advanced and eliminate the backward, and really promote the high-quality development of the industry.

Continue to control carbon black production in the second half of the year

According to the statistical data, the growth rate of the comprehensive tire production was close to two-digit decline, with a decrease rate of 9, In this case, the output of carbon black should be controlled, reasonable inventory should be maintained, supply and demand should be balanced, reasonable market price should be maintained, and losses of enterprises should be controlled. From the 8% drop in carbon black output in the first half of the year, it is still necessary to continue to control the output in the second half of the year to achieve reasonable supply and maintain sustainable development of enterprises.

Import and export

Carbon black export volume and price fall

According to the statistics of the State Customs, in the first half of 2020, the export volume of carbon black was 298000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.26%, the export amount was 250 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 37.83%, the export volume and export amount fell sharply at the same time, the average export price was 842 US dollars / ton, the average export price in the same period last year was 1054 US dollars, the average price decreased by 20.11%.

In the first half of the year, the main export countries were Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, but the export volume and export value were all declining. Only the carbon black exported to South Korea showed both volume and price rise, and the export volume growth rate was relatively large.

Import carbon black volume and price rise

According to the statistics of the State Customs, in the first half of the year, the import of carbon black was 39800 tons, an increase of 11.33% over the same period of last year. The import amount was 108 million US dollars, an increase of 4.22% over the same period of last year. The average import unit price was 2901 tons in the same period last year, and the import unit price was 6.38% lower than that of the same period It can be seen that most of the imported carbon black is mainly high-end special carbon black, which can basically rule out the possibility of ordinary rubber carbon black. The situation of both the quantity and price of imported carbon black shows that the epidemic situation in China is basically under control, and the production and operation of enterprises have returned to normal level.

The main importing countries are South Korea, Japan and the United States. The import volume and import amount show a growth trend, while the import volume increases significantly in Italy and the Netherlands.

Aftermarket forecast: from September to October, the coal tar market will meet a wave of rising process, which will put pressure on the cost of carbon black, or will drive the carbon black market to rise.

Price trend

According to business agency data monitoring, plasticizer DOP prices rose this week. As of September 27, the DOP price was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was slightly higher than that of last weekend (September 20) of 7250.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.23%. DOP slowly recovered.

Upstream market of industrial chain

 
As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride trend chart, this week DOP raw material phthalic anhydride prices rose, phthalic anhydride market volatility rose, the overall phthalic anhydride market rose momentum.

As can be seen from the octanol price trend chart, the octanol market is temporarily stable this week, the DOP cost is temporarily stable, and the upward momentum of DOP is weakened, and the downward pressure is increasing.

Downstream market of industrial chain

As can be seen from the PVC price trend chart, the PVC price rose slightly this week, the PVC market picked up by 0.11%, the PVC market recovered, and the overall PVC market was stronger, which was good for the plasticizer DOP market.

Market review and future expectation

DOP data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that this week DOP raw material methanol price temporarily stable, phthalic anhydride price shock rise, good for DOP market; downstream PVC market rose slightly, DOP demand slightly recovered, DOP rising momentum slowly strengthened, plasticizer Market temporarily stable. Overall, DOP raw material prices rose slightly, the downstream market remained stable, while the future DOP market was somewhat favorable, but the good was limited. It is expected that DOP market will be strong and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the big data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on September 17 was 4816.67 yuan / ton, up 0.66% compared with the beginning of the week, 0.66% on a month on month basis, 9.35% lower than the beginning of the year, and 10.19% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the rise of raw material yellow phosphorus this week, the market of phosphoric acid rose steadily. In September, the yellow phosphorus market recovered, the supply was slightly tight, and the price rose steadily, breaking the calm of phosphoric acid Market for more than a month and opening up the upward channel. Phosphoric acid enterprises then actively adjusted to 50-100 yuan fluctuations, some enterprises up to 300 yuan, but the market as a whole remains stable and wait-and-see attitude. At present, however, the demand side is slightly improved. Near the holiday, logistics may be limited, and the downstream stock is more than before. The wet process phosphoric acid shipment is better, but the demand is not as expected. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market is not high. The small recovery of yellow phosphorus is difficult to drive the market higher. Most phosphoric acid enterprises are calm and wait-and-see, and the market is glued in the short term, or will rise slightly with the cost.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of September 17, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4450-5300 yuan / ton, the price was rising, the price in Guangxi was about 4750 yuan / ton, the transaction was stable; the quotation in Yunnan was about 4800 yuan / ton, the price was up; in Beijing, the price was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was 4800-4850 yuan The price of Tianjin is about 5500 yuan / ton, which is stable for the time being; the price of Jiangsu is about 4450-4500 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. Prices around the country remained stable and saw a slight rise in some areas.

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in East China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Southwest China

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

On September 17, the phosphoric acid industrial chain index was 87.54, up 0.15 points compared with yesterday, 17.61% lower than 106.25 points (2012-03-22), and 12.81% higher than 77.60 points, the lowest point on July 2, 2019. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The market price of yellow phosphorus in the upper reaches has increased steadily. Downstream gradually began to prepare goods before the festival, orders increased moderately, the market trading situation was fair, and the spot price of yellow phosphorus market was slightly tense. The yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan Province have slightly improved, and the market supply is relatively stable. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will incline upward in the short term.

At present, the market of phosphate rock is always weak, and there are not many new orders in the market. The coming double sections may inject a rising momentum into the market. Under the downstream periodic replenishment, the supply and demand of phosphate rock will be in a positive cycle. The downstream pre holiday stock has gradually started. With the increase of demand, it is expected that the new order of phosphate ore will be closed to the high-end.

For sulfuric acid, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable on September 16, which was in line with the quotation on September 14. Although the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently and the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general and the sulfuric acid supply is normal. Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, with the quotation of 390 yuan / ton.

The price of ammonium phosphate fell by 77%. The market of diammonium phosphate improved and the price continued to rise, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 60%. In August, the raw material purchase of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises was limited, and the supply of monoammonium phosphate was sufficient, so the market trend was weak. In August, the international demand for diammonium phosphate was good, the supply was tight, and the price rose. It is expected that monoammonium will run smoothly in September. The trend of diammonium may continue to rise.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that the demand is slightly improved at present, and the logistics may be limited near the holiday, and the downstream stock is more than before, but the overall market enthusiasm is not high, and phosphoric acid is expected to rise slightly with the cost.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10800 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 10733 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with the price falling by 0.62%.

The price of activated carbon in China has dropped. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / T; the domestic activated carbon market has not changed much, and the quotation is stable and small. Traders are flexible, terminal demand has not changed significantly, factories still purchase on demand to meet normal production, the overall trading atmosphere is flat.

The cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell and charcoal as the main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon was supported, and the demand turned better; the cost support of coal based carbon raw materials was weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, and the environmental protection policy boosts the activated carbon market.

Forecast: the overall market of activated carbon market is mainly stable, and some offers are slightly down. It is expected that the activated carbon market will be mainly shaken in the short term.