The MIBK market fluctuated downward in October. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer was 23275 yuan / ton on October 1 and 22025 yuan / ton on October 31, with an overall market decline of 5.37%. As can be seen from the trend chart below, the offer tends to be stable, and the MIBK market in East China is negotiated at 22000-22500 yuan / ton.

In the first ten days of October, the MIBK market rose above, the raw material end rose rapidly after the National Day holiday, and the operating rate of MIBK is expected to decline after the holiday. Among them, the 15000 T / a unit of Wanhua chemical decreased to 50% operation, and the 50000 T / A units of Ningbo Zhenyang and Zhenjiang Li Changrong plan to stop for maintenance for one month on the 18th. The news of reducing the negative parking of devices in the yard continued to spread, the downstream inquired one after another, and the offers of cargo holders increased, The low level is not out, and the support from the raw material side is strong, and the market intention is higher.

Since mid September, the 15000 T / a unit of Wanhua chemical has returned to 90% operation, and since the 13th, the whole industrial chain at the raw material end has turned around and experienced a significant downward trend. In the downstream, except for the consumption and balance of antioxidant, the market demand for other downstream solvents and coatings is general, and the purchase volume is expected to decrease. Therefore, the good times are not long, the increase is small, but it quickly enters the downward channel, By the end of the month, the negotiation in East China had reached about 22000 yuan / ton.

Devices in the industry: the 50000 T / a MIBK device of Li Changrong in Zhenjiang was shut down on October 18 for about one month, the monthly operating rate of 15000 T / a MIBK device of Wanhua chemical was adjusted from 50% to 90%, and the 15000 T / a MIBK device in Zhenyang, Ningbo was shut down.

From the perspective of the business community, the MIBK market has entered a cooling off period. After a round of decline, the market has gradually stabilized. The high price of the carrier has been reported and the low price has been reported. The demand for antioxidant in the downstream is OK, and other downstream replenishment is general. The 50000 T / a device maintenance of Li Changrong in Zhenjiang in late October is expected to start in mid November. In November, the supply is expected to increase, and the supply pressure of the carrier is only increasing, Business community expects MIBK market to be weak in November.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on October 29, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 10400 yuan / ton, down 17.43% from the beginning of the week, 18.17% from the beginning of the month, and 45.22% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market fell sharply, down about 17%. The daily decline of enterprises was about 500 yuan / ton, and the price mostly hovered around 10000 yuan. PVC futures continued to fall. Although they rebounded, it was difficult to change the overall situation. The price in the spot market continued to fall, the profits of PVC enterprises were damaged, the price of raw calcium carbide fell to about 7200 yuan / ton, the cost support fell, and the mentality of the industry was negative, The market price is relatively chaotic, with most single discussions, but the downstream procurement is still cautious and continues to maintain just needed procurement. The market is shrouded in pessimism. The holders have a strong intention to make profit and ship, and the focus is moving down rapidly. In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 11000-12500 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9880-9950 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Tianjin is 9700-10000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 10450-10600 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to decline.

On October 28, the international oil price stabilized after falling. The WTI crude oil futures of the United States rose slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was reported as US $82.81/barrel, up US $0.15 or 0.18%. Brent crude oil futures fell slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was reported as US $83.66/barrel, down US $0.21 or 0.25%. The previous trading day, affected by the surge in U.S. crude oil inventories and rumors of the resumption of Iran’s nuclear negotiations, oil prices fell sharply. At present, the market gradually returns to rationality and stops falling and stabilizes.

Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose in October. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the month was US $1125.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the end of the month was US $1186.75/t, an increase of 5.47%. The current price increased by 6.10% month on month, and the current price increased by 58.13% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil, the economy is gradually recovering, the demand continues to improve, and the high raw material price supports the cost of ethylene. Therefore, the data analysts of business society expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

For calcium carbide, on October 29, the ex factory price of Northwest calcium carbide fell sharply to 7200-7600 yuan / ton, the downstream PVC market fell slightly recently, and the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement. At present, with the relaxation of power restriction and the increase of calcium carbide production, it is expected that it will fluctuate slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that under the guidance of macro policy information, the disk continues to be weak, the price of raw materials falls, the negative factors in the PVC market are obvious, and the market is weak.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 28, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 17200.00 yuan / ton, down 0.77% compared with October 1, and up 2.38% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In October, propylene oxide market rose first and then fell. After returning from the National Day holiday, the price of raw propylene was high, the cost support was strong, the market supply was tight, the downstream purchase was stable and followed up, the factory shipment was pressureless, and the market was up. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material propylene weakened, but the price of liquid chlorine operated strongly, the cost support remained, the tight supply situation continued, but the demand side was weak, and the market was deadlocked and operated at a stable price. Near the end of the month, the propylene market continued to weaken, the price of liquid chlorine fell, the cost support weakened, the market supply increased, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, the market atmosphere was weak, and the market fell. On the 28th, the mainstream of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 17000-17100 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, as of October 27, the reference price of propylene was 8537.17, up 5.5% compared with October 1 (8092.17). Propylene (Shandong) market continues to decline, among which the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong is 8300-8350 yuan / ton. Propylene is now in the downward channel, the downstream demand support is weak, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. In particular, the main downstream polypropylene has poor recent performance, upside down market price and low start-up of enterprises.

According to the monitoring data of downstream propylene glycol, as of October 27, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 24166 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (propylene glycol reference price was 21100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 3066 yuan / ton, or 14.53%; For the downstream soft foam polyether, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong decreased on the morning of October 28. At present, the mainstream quotation is around 17200-17500 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that, on the whole, the current cost support is general, and the new orders of downstream polyether have increased. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may focus on wait-and-see consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the copper price first rose and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 68796.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose slightly to 72063.33 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 4.75%, an increase of 24.34% over the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 39.77%. Since the national day, copper prices have risen all the way to the second highest level of the year on October 18, and then fell slightly.

According to the current chart of business society, most of the copper spot prices in October were higher than the futures prices. The main contract is the expected price in two months. Now the basis has widened, indicating that everyone is not very optimistic about the future of copper price.

Macro factors: in early October, crude oil hit new highs and the US dollar fell sharply, boosting metal prices. Later, the economic data of China and the United States were lower than market expectations, which increased investors’ concerns about the slowdown of economic growth and put pressure on metal prices. In order to ensure market order, LME conducted copper trading investigation and made copper prices lower.

In terms of supply: the electricity price soared, the pressure on the supply side increased, and the maintenance of smelters in Guangxi was completed, but there is still a certain gap between the output and full production; The capacity utilization rate of local smelters in Jiangsu is about 50%. In September 2021, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 406000 tons, with a month on month increase of 3.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%. From January to September 2021, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4019000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, and the average price was 60400 yuan per ton, an increase of 37.9%.

In terms of demand: power rationing in some main copper rod production areas in East and South China will affect the commencement. In September 2021, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 84.32%, an increase of 0.55% month on month. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to be 82.32% in October.

Inventory continued to decline

Based on the above situation, power restriction has an impact on the supply and demand of copper. The supply of copper and scrap copper in China is increasing, but the demand slows down. Although the power shortage may inhibit smelting, it also suppresses the growth of consumption. Although the domestic downstream end consumption performance is average, the refined copper inventory continues to fall, and will continue to decline in the future, which supports the copper price. November is the off-season for consumption, and demand is expected to weaken further. Copper prices are expected to remain weak in November.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 26, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 8200.00 yuan / ton, and the pet price was mainly stable (10.19-10.26). Compared with the same period last week, the price did not change, and the price fell by 5.03% compared with the same period last month. Pet remained weak and the negotiation atmosphere was general.

This week, the domestic pet price is stable and weak, the price is stable, and the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is positive. At present, the overall market operating rate is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, the atmosphere is weak, the mainstream price is about 8200 yuan / ton, there is a narrow downward trend, the manufacturers actively ship, the logistics is smooth, and the supply side is normal.

Upstream PTA operated in a narrow range, and the mainstream price was about 5300 yuan / ton. On the 20th, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5390 yuan / ton, down 2.45% yuan / ton from the previous day, up 56.58% year-on-year. The main futures 2201 closed 5440 and settled 5410, down 90, down 1.63%.

Pet analysts of business society believe that the pet market will remain stable and weak in the short term. (to know more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods and grasp the price of commodities).

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (October 25): 19966.67 yuan / ton

On October 25, the melamine market rose slightly, up 0.84% compared with last Friday, 15.41% compared with September 25, and 50.88% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the upstream urea price is running at a high level, the cost side has a certain support, the operating rate of melamine has increased, enterprises mainly execute early orders, strong export demand, flat domestic trade demand, and the market wait-and-see mood is getting stronger and stronger.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate at a high level.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the recent trend of PP market has fallen, and the spot prices of various brands have fallen greatly. As of October 22, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9116.67 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.26% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of raw propylene, the propylene market in Shandong continued to decline this week, with a large range. The market trading returns to rationality, the willingness of downstream buyers is not strong, and the willingness of enterprises to take goods is obvious due to the impact of low-price goods. Downstream demand is the main demand. Although crude oil prices continue to rise, there is insufficient support. It is difficult to further improve the long and short game in the propylene market. It is expected that the propylene market will maintain a weak shock in the near future.

The price of direct raw material propylene fell, while the national development and Reform Commission strengthened the investigation and punishment of malicious speculation of coal by capital, which is expected to suppress the coal price and weaken the cost side support of PP. In addition, local environmental protection policies affect the industry and its downstream operating rate, and the downstream demand is lower than that in the same period of previous years, dragging down the spot price of PP. In terms of inventory, enterprises decreased and agents increased. Near the end of the month, some profit-making businesses had significant profit transfer operations.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of October 22, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9300.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly rise and fall of – 6.06%, with a year-on-year increase of 12.27%. The demand for PP fiber material this week is general. At present, the proportion of domestic fiber material production is medium and low, the demand of the main downstream non-woven enterprises is weak, and the digestion level of end consumer goods is stable. Fiber materials fell due to the impact of energy stagflation and propylene reduction.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has fallen slightly recently, and the spot price has been adjusted at a high level. As of October 22, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10083.33 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.31% in the week. At present, sporadic local diagnosis of domestic health events has a little pulling effect on the melt blown cloth market. However, affected by the decline of raw materials, the survival of melt blown cloth enterprises is still difficult, and there are few devices still producing melt blown PP in China.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell this week, propylene and coal weakened at the cost side, and the upstream support for PP weakened. The load of terminal enterprises is lower due to environmental protection regulations, and the traditional peak demand season ends, so the on-site demand follow-up is poor. Merchants give away the profit order, and the offer is reduced by a large margin. It is expected that the PP market may be weak in a narrow range in the short term.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 7800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7866.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 66.67 yuan / ton, or 0.85%, a year-on-year increase of 187.81%. On the whole, the calcium carbide market rose this week, and the calcium carbide commodity index was 206.11 on October 15.

Upstream cost supports, downstream demand increases, and calcium carbide production decreases

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose this week: oviganone quoted 7800 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend is 7800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend was 8000 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, in the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan was adjusted at a high level this week, and the bulk material fell slightly. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 3300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 3300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of big materials this weekend is 3400 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The price of upstream raw materials was adjusted at a high level and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

In the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC rose slightly this week. The PVC quotation this week increased from 14325.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14450.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.87%, an increase of 110.41% over the same period last year. The PVC price rose slightly this week, the market continued to rise, the PVC maintenance was completed, and the downstream had a good enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. On the whole, the PVC market this week had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market rose and rose slightly in the future

In late October, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was adjusted at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market is rising and the demand is good. Double control of energy consumption and reduction of calcium carbide output. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in late October.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (October 20): 13600 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, the PVC futures fell by the limit in the late night of October 19. On October 20, the closing price of the main contract 2201 was 11040, down 6.99%, suppressing market sentiment. The price of the spot market fell sharply, the price of PVC manufacturers fell, the offer of cargo holders fell, the price was chaotic, and the quotation was mostly about 13000-14000, Some enterprises closed their offer and stopped quotation, and the market focus moved down.

Forecast: PVC prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term.

region varieties workmanship October 20th

Shanghai PVC Calcium carbide method 12200-12400 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC Calcium carbide method 12280-12500 yuan / ton

Guangzhou PVC Calcium carbide method 12900-13150 yuan / ton

In mid October, the rise of propane did not stop, and the overall domestic propane market continued to rise. The price of propane in Shandong has increased significantly, and the price is about to break through the level of 7000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6150.75 yuan / ton on October 10 and 6793.25 yuan / ton on October 18, with an increase of 10.45% during the period, an increase of 36.32% compared with September 1.

As of October 18, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications October 18th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6350-6600 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6600-6800 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6800-6950 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6220-6350 yuan / ton

In mid October, the domestic propane Market as a whole continued to play a leading role, and both the north and South markets increased to varying degrees. The market in Shandong increased significantly, and the price mostly rose above 6800 yuan / ton. At present, the average price of propane Market in Shandong has reached the highest point of 6793.25 yuan / ton in recent seven years.

In the middle of the year, the domestic propane market continued to be positive. At present, the northern market rose slightly and the southern market pushed up steadily, showing an upward trend. The high international crude oil price and high import cost have brought obvious support to the propane Market. In addition, the weather in the northern market has cooled significantly recently, the terminal demand has increased significantly, and the supply in the northern market has decreased. Under the dual advantages of supply and demand, the price continues to rise.

Saudi Aramco announced in October 2021 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 800 USD / T, an increase of 135 USD / T compared with the previous month; Butane is 795 USD / T, an increase of 130 USD / T compared with the previous month.

Although the current domestic propane market has increased significantly to a relatively high level, the peak season of propane market has come. With the obvious cooling of the weather, the terminal demand has increased significantly. In addition, the import cost and international crude oil have also brought obvious benefits to the domestic market. Although the recent market rise has narrowed compared with the previous period, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is mild and the benefits are obvious, The propane market is still bullish in the later stage.