1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PVC calcium carbide SG5 rose first and then fell this week. On the whole, the price rose slightly. On Friday, the average price of domestic PVC was 6008.57 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6025 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.27% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the SG5 of PVC calcium carbide method rose first and then fell. On the whole, the price rose slightly. At present, the overall trading situation of the market is relatively general, the actual transaction situation of the spot market is general, the enthusiasm for inquiry and goods acquisition is weak, and more wait-and-see, the actual transaction is more cautious, and the demand is strong. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5700-6300 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on December 8. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 71.46 US dollars/barrel, down 0.55 US dollars or 0.76%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 76.15 dollars/barrel, down 1.02 dollars or 1.32%. The market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere, and the oil market was dragged down by the fear of economic recession. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week will put pressure on oil prices and weaken energy demand.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China fell from 3800 yuan/ton on Friday to 3766.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.88%. The upstream carbon price was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market rose first and then fell, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that PVC rose first and then fell this week, with a slight increase. The downstream demand is general, and the purchase is mainly on demand, with limited new orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market price will fluctuate and consolidate. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

The price of plasticizer DBP fell in November due to volatility

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the DBP price was 9650 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from 9900 yuan/ton on November 1. Raw material support weakened, demand remained weak, and DBP price was adjusted in November.

The price of DBP raw materials fell in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8687.50 yuan/ton, down 7.95% from the price of 9437.50 yuan/ton on November 1. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride dropped due to shocks, the operating rate of ortho phthalic anhydride increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, downstream demand was weak, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, and the pressure on DBP to fall increased.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the price of n-butanol was 7433.33 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from 7266.67 yuan/ton on November 1. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market was stable, the industry remained strong, the price of n-butanol rose in shock, and the support of DBP cost rise remained.

The output of plastic products declined month on month

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of plastic products in October was 6.685 million tons, and that in September was 6.92 million tons. The output of plastic products fell both month on month, the demand for plasticizers decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increased.

Future market expectation

In terms of cost, analysts from DBP data of China Business Press believed that the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply, the price of n-butanol rose slightly, and the overall cost of DBP raw materials fell; In terms of demand, DBP demand remains weak. In the future, the cost support of DBP will weaken and the demand will be weak. It is expected that the price of DBP will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the major list of business cooperatives, toluene rebounded after falling in the first half of this month, and fell continuously in the second half of this month, with a wider decline at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 7480 yuan/ton on November 1 and 6960 yuan/ton on November 28, down 6.95% from the beginning of the month; It was 11.18% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the low demand season, the operating rate of downstream chemical products of toluene has decreased, and the demand for toluene has weakened. However, the market of the terminal gasoline industry is weak, the amount of toluene used by enterprises is reduced, and the export sales are increased. At the same time, the toluene production enterprises are in the off-season of maintenance, and the toluene market has sufficient supply. In the situation of decreasing demand and increasing supply, the trend of toluene is weak, but supported by crude oil, the decline is limited. However, with the opening of the downward channel of crude oil, the cost has been weakening continuously, which has dragged down the market mentality of toluene. The market price has been continuously lowered along with the main refineries, and the decline has expanded at the end of the month.

In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell broadly this month. On November 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 769 dollars/ton, down 177 dollars/ton month on month, or 18.7%.

In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by the epidemic, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell by more than 20% this month, mainly in the first ten days of the month. At the beginning of the month, domestic goods were 22667 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 17500 yuan/ton, 22.79% lower than the beginning of the month, and 21.74% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month and increased by 17.81% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the overall gasoline price in Shandong Province fluctuated positively in the first half of this month, and began to fall next month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8159 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7919 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the beginning of the month and 1.82% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

At present, the toluene market lacks good guidance. The short-term trend of crude oil is weak, and the demand is weak. It just needs to follow up. The industry is not in a good mood, and toluene may still fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics, import and export, downstream demand, etc. on the price of toluene.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price is temporarily stable this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market this week is 6233.33 yuan/ton. On December 4, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 31.64, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 5.05% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of isobutyraldehyde mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7296.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7710.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 5.67%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the isobutyraldehyde price. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, with the price rising from 8933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.37%. Neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and downstream demand was average, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the first half of December may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and cost support increased. The market price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream rose slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream increased. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 2, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 1056 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that on November 28. Compared with that on November 3 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 1055 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1 yuan/ton, or 0.09%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic phosphorus ore market was stable and in an integrated way this week (11.28-11.02). Within the week, the overall supply and demand of domestic phosphorus ore market did not change much. Near the end of the year, some mining enterprises in Guizhou basically completed their annual orders, and the current prices were basically implemented at the end of the year. At present, the supply of medium and high-end grade phosphate rock in the site continues to be tight, and the downstream demand side just needs to purchase. As of December 2, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the sporadic low-end price is below 1000 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

In October 2022, the national output of phosphate rock (containing 30% of phosphorus pentoxide) will decline compared with the same period last year. In October 2022, the national output of phosphate rock was 7.606 million tons, down 10.4% year on year. From January to October 2022, the national output of phosphate rock was 85.706 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%.

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is gradually warming up. After the phosphate fertilizer market continues to rise, the phosphate chemical industry chain also supports the phosphate ore market from the bottom to the top. The mentality of the phosphate ore industry has improved compared with that in the third quarter. In addition, some mining enterprises shut down in winter, and the tension on the supply side of the site is hard to change. The supply side will continue to support the market. Therefore, the phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the early Spring Festival, It is expected that the domestic phosphorus ore market will be stable, medium strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in November showed a trend of rising and falling. In the first ten days of November, the price of lithium carbonate still rose, and the price also kept breaking new historical highs. In the middle of November, the price stopped rising and fell, and the downward trend continued until the end of the month. As of November 30, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 571,000 yuan/ton, 1.24% higher than the average price of 564,000 yuan/ton on November 1. On November 30, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 587000 yuan/ton, up 0.69% compared with the average price of 583000 yuan/ton on November 1.

Market supply

According to the observation of market changes, the products of major lithium carbonate manufacturers in November were basically delivered through long-term cooperation, and the spot market status gradually changed from tense to slightly loose. In the early stage, the shortage of supply was mainly due to the continuous recurrence of epidemics in various parts of the country and the frequent occurrence of market transport control information, which had an impact on the market transport volume. Subsequently, the market heard that the battery plant planned to reduce production, which would reduce the purchase of lithium salt. The lithium carbonate market was pessimistic. In the early stage, there was also a large volume of lithium carbonate stocking enterprises, while the large quantities of imported lithium carbonate from South America arrived in Hong Kong, making the market supply gap timely supplemented. However, in winter, the temperature gradually decreases, and salt lake enterprises in Qinghai begin to reduce production, which may play a supporting role in the price of lithium carbonate.

Demand side

The market is expected to perform well in the first ten days of November, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises is high. As the prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to rise, there is still demand for production scheduling of downstream ternary high nickel cathode material plants. With the continuous control of epidemic situation, downstream enterprises are still actively preparing goods to ensure normal production. Starting from the middle and late November, the terminal market rush to install came to an end, and the demand for the power end market weakened and the heat gradually decreased. The output of downstream cathode material plants and lithium iron enterprises has declined, which has also driven the overall demand for lithium carbonate to weaken. The market procurement is in a state of rigid demand, and the mood is still mainly wait-and-see.

Upstream raw materials

On November 16, Pilbara Minerals conducted a new round of lithium concentrate auction, with the bidding price of about 7804 US dollars/ton, up by 549 US dollars/ton, or 7.6%, compared with the transaction price of Pilbara on October 24, 2022. The ore volume of this auction is 5000 tons, and the concentrate grade is 5.5%. The cost price of 1 ton of LCE is about 580000 yuan/ton. This batch of ores is expected to be delivered in the middle of December. Considering the logistics cycle, the products will enter the market in January and February. The auction price hit a new historical high, which indirectly reflects the fierce competition for resources at the raw material end in the short term.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market price rose. The upstream spodumene and lithium carbonate prices were high this month. The cost was supported by the lithium hydroxide price, but the market was cautious. In terms of supply and demand, in the first half of the month, enterprises mainly delivered long orders, and the market was short of spot supplies. Downstream enterprises increased production scheduling, and the focus of market negotiations moved up. In the second half of the month, the normal production of enterprises was dominant, the demand side was average, the spot transactions on the market were just needed, and the focus of negotiation was stable.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate is stable and rising. The downstream of lithium iron phosphate market is just in need of procurement. The operating rate is stable, and the procurement atmosphere is general. The overall market remains stable and strong. The manufacturer’s supply is only for old customers, mainly for contract customers. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair. Subsequently, lithium salt was withdrawn slightly, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, but the quotation was generally stable.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business community, the peak demand period of the lithium carbonate market has passed, the market’s willingness to receive goods is relatively conservative, the traders’ quotations are loose and downward, and the market sentiment may be pessimistic. However, supported by the weakening of winter output and the high auction price of lithium ore end, lithium carbonate price is expected to remain high in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of the business community, as of November 29, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8966.67 yuan/ton, down 6.27% from November 1.

The market price of epichlorohydrin fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the cost of epichlorohydrin was limited, and some devices at the supply side were in a shutdown state, but the demand was weak, the market supply was sufficient, the inventory was under pressure, and the price focus was weak. The supply side devices had little change in the middle and late days, and the downstream staged replenishment. The market transaction atmosphere was improved, the inventory pressure was relieved, and the enterprise’s quotation was tentatively increased. However, with the downstream replenishment, the market atmosphere became weak, and the market was weak and the game was sorted out, Near the end of the month, the cost of epichlorohydrin has a certain support. A large factory has reduced the load, supporting the market price mentality, and the price has risen.

In terms of upstream and downstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market performed generally in November, rising first and then operating in a narrow range. On November 28, the reference price of propylene was 7436.60, up 5.68% compared with November 1 (7036.60). The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 16466.67 on November 28, down 10.67% compared with November 1 (18433.33).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current cost impact is not significant, and the market is pushing up the atmosphere, but the demand side follows the general trend. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be strong in a short time, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1504 yuan/ton on November 1, and 1450 yuan/ton on November 28. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 3.55% this month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the weekly rise and fall chart from September 5, 2022 to November 27, 2022, ammonium sulfate has seen a lot of ups and downs since November. The maximum increase was 1.16% in the week of November 21, and the maximum decrease was -3.32% in the week of November 7.

Ammonium sulfate prices fell first and then rose this month. In the first ten days of November, the market of ammonium sulfate fluctuated downward. The market demand for ammonium sulfate is low, and the number of transactions is low. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the industry operates cautiously. The export demand is weak and the overall performance is poor. The bidding price of coking ammonium sulfate was generally lowered, and the price of domestic ammonium sulfate also continued to decline. In late November, the ammonium sulfate market started to rise steadily. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, the demand for winter storage procurement has increased, the on-site turnover is fair, and the export demand follows. The operating rate of coking plant and caprolactam plant decreased slightly, and the supply of ammonium sulfate in the plant decreased. As of November 28, the main factory quotation of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was about 1415 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei was about 1420 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 1390-1540 yuan/ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market has improved this month, with compound fertilizer enterprises starting at a low level. In the first ten days of November, the compound fertilizer market was mainly waiting for consolidation and operation. The winter storage market is progressing slowly, the demand for raw materials is not good, and the turnover in the compound fertilizer field is light. Since the middle of November, supported by raw materials, the domestic compound fertilizer market has been running well, and the winter storage market has steadily followed up. The raw materials continue to grow, the pressure on the cost of compound fertilizer increases, and the manufacturers mainly pay high prices. At present, there is a strong bullish atmosphere in the downstream compound fertilizer market, and most enterprises begin to stop quoting.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts from the business community believe that at present, the domestic market demand for ammonium sulfate is stable, the market trading is fair, and the export demand is weak. The price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in various regions in China rose and fell mutually, and the supply of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was still low. The recent rise in urea prices has provided some support for the ammonium sulfate market. It is expected that in the short term, the market of ammonium sulfate will be dominated by narrow amplitude shocks.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of November 25, the average price quoted by 85% domestic industrial formic acid enterprises was 3033.33 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the price on Monday.

The domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market price was stable this week. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has fallen, the price of raw material methanol has risen slightly, and the cost impact is limited. The downstream of the main domestic force just needs to follow up steadily, the export order is fair, the market transaction is orderly, and the focus of formic acid negotiation is stable.

Upstream product: upstream sulfuric acid. On November 25, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 321.67, a decrease of 22.3% compared with November 1 (414.00); On November 25, the reference price of upstream methanol was 2811.67, which was 0.86% lower than that on November 1 (2836.00).

The formic acid analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is average, while the supply and demand support the market. The domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate at a high level in a short time. More attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1056 yuan/ton. On November 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1054 yuan/ton), the price increased by 2 yuan/ton, or 0.16%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since November (11.1-11.24), the domestic phosphorus ore market has been operating steadily as a whole, the supply of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ores in the site has been tight, the mining enterprises in some regions have stopped working, the large mining enterprises are still mainly for their own use, the export ores are few, the spot circulation of phosphorus ores in the site is small, and the supply side continues to provide market support.

In the middle of November, sporadic mining enterprises in Sichuan Province raised the price of phosphate rock slightly by about 10-20 yuan/ton, and most phosphate rock markets in other regions continued to operate stably. As of November 24, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton,. There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, the phosphate fertilizer market at the downstream terminal of phosphate rock has warmed up compared with the previous period, which will provide a certain psychological support for phosphate rock from the bottom to the bottom. In addition, the supply side will continue to support. The phosphate rock datagrapher of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly continue to operate at a high level.