According to the data monitored by the business community, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in November showed a trend of rising and falling. In the first ten days of November, the price of lithium carbonate still rose, and the price also kept breaking new historical highs. In the middle of November, the price stopped rising and fell, and the downward trend continued until the end of the month. As of November 30, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 571,000 yuan/ton, 1.24% higher than the average price of 564,000 yuan/ton on November 1. On November 30, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 587000 yuan/ton, up 0.69% compared with the average price of 583000 yuan/ton on November 1.

Market supply

According to the observation of market changes, the products of major lithium carbonate manufacturers in November were basically delivered through long-term cooperation, and the spot market status gradually changed from tense to slightly loose. In the early stage, the shortage of supply was mainly due to the continuous recurrence of epidemics in various parts of the country and the frequent occurrence of market transport control information, which had an impact on the market transport volume. Subsequently, the market heard that the battery plant planned to reduce production, which would reduce the purchase of lithium salt. The lithium carbonate market was pessimistic. In the early stage, there was also a large volume of lithium carbonate stocking enterprises, while the large quantities of imported lithium carbonate from South America arrived in Hong Kong, making the market supply gap timely supplemented. However, in winter, the temperature gradually decreases, and salt lake enterprises in Qinghai begin to reduce production, which may play a supporting role in the price of lithium carbonate.

Demand side

The market is expected to perform well in the first ten days of November, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises is high. As the prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to rise, there is still demand for production scheduling of downstream ternary high nickel cathode material plants. With the continuous control of epidemic situation, downstream enterprises are still actively preparing goods to ensure normal production. Starting from the middle and late November, the terminal market rush to install came to an end, and the demand for the power end market weakened and the heat gradually decreased. The output of downstream cathode material plants and lithium iron enterprises has declined, which has also driven the overall demand for lithium carbonate to weaken. The market procurement is in a state of rigid demand, and the mood is still mainly wait-and-see.

Upstream raw materials

On November 16, Pilbara Minerals conducted a new round of lithium concentrate auction, with the bidding price of about 7804 US dollars/ton, up by 549 US dollars/ton, or 7.6%, compared with the transaction price of Pilbara on October 24, 2022. The ore volume of this auction is 5000 tons, and the concentrate grade is 5.5%. The cost price of 1 ton of LCE is about 580000 yuan/ton. This batch of ores is expected to be delivered in the middle of December. Considering the logistics cycle, the products will enter the market in January and February. The auction price hit a new historical high, which indirectly reflects the fierce competition for resources at the raw material end in the short term.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market price rose. The upstream spodumene and lithium carbonate prices were high this month. The cost was supported by the lithium hydroxide price, but the market was cautious. In terms of supply and demand, in the first half of the month, enterprises mainly delivered long orders, and the market was short of spot supplies. Downstream enterprises increased production scheduling, and the focus of market negotiations moved up. In the second half of the month, the normal production of enterprises was dominant, the demand side was average, the spot transactions on the market were just needed, and the focus of negotiation was stable.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate is stable and rising. The downstream of lithium iron phosphate market is just in need of procurement. The operating rate is stable, and the procurement atmosphere is general. The overall market remains stable and strong. The manufacturer’s supply is only for old customers, mainly for contract customers. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair. Subsequently, lithium salt was withdrawn slightly, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, but the quotation was generally stable.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business community, the peak demand period of the lithium carbonate market has passed, the market’s willingness to receive goods is relatively conservative, the traders’ quotations are loose and downward, and the market sentiment may be pessimistic. However, supported by the weakening of winter output and the high auction price of lithium ore end, lithium carbonate price is expected to remain high in the short term.