1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data of the major list of business cooperatives, toluene rebounded after falling in the first half of this month, and fell continuously in the second half of this month, with a wider decline at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 7480 yuan/ton on November 1 and 6960 yuan/ton on November 28, down 6.95% from the beginning of the month; It was 11.18% higher than the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and review

 

Due to the low demand season, the operating rate of downstream chemical products of toluene has decreased, and the demand for toluene has weakened. However, the market of the terminal gasoline industry is weak, the amount of toluene used by enterprises is reduced, and the export sales are increased. At the same time, the toluene production enterprises are in the off-season of maintenance, and the toluene market has sufficient supply. In the situation of decreasing demand and increasing supply, the trend of toluene is weak, but supported by crude oil, the decline is limited. However, with the opening of the downward channel of crude oil, the cost has been weakening continuously, which has dragged down the market mentality of toluene. The market price has been continuously lowered along with the main refineries, and the decline has expanded at the end of the month.

 

In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell broadly this month. On November 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 769 dollars/ton, down 177 dollars/ton month on month, or 18.7%.

 

In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by the epidemic, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.

 

Downstream: In terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell by more than 20% this month, mainly in the first ten days of the month. At the beginning of the month, domestic goods were 22667 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 17500 yuan/ton, 22.79% lower than the beginning of the month, and 21.74% higher than the same period last year.

 

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month and increased by 17.81% compared with the same period last year.

 

In terms of gasoline, the overall gasoline price in Shandong Province fluctuated positively in the first half of this month, and began to fall next month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8159 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7919 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the beginning of the month and 1.82% from the same period last year.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

 

At present, the toluene market lacks good guidance. The short-term trend of crude oil is weak, and the demand is weak. It just needs to follow up. The industry is not in a good mood, and toluene may still fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics, import and export, downstream demand, etc. on the price of toluene.

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