According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased from December 18th to December 25th, 2023, with a price increase of 6063.75 yuan/ton last week and 6376.25 yuan/ton this week, up 5.15%.

In terms of crude oil: Angola’s decision to withdraw from OPEC has raised doubts in the market about the sustainability of OPEC+production cuts, leading to a decline in international oil prices. On December 22nd, international crude oil futures closed lower, with the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $73.56 per barrel, a decrease of $0.33 or 0.5%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 78.80 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.5%.

On December 20th, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 150 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7053 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On December 18th, the price of pure benzene was 6837 yuan/ton, and on Friday (December 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 7080 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.76% from last week and 8.38% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows a significant increase in the pure benzene market recently.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market fell first and then rose during the week, and the styrene market overall strengthened. Due to the impact of transportation, the delivery of pure benzene in East China is not good, and the bullish mentality of the spot market has increased. In terms of demand, downstream stocks have been replenished recently, and market trading has been active. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene to 6950 yuan/ton and increased it by 150 yuan/ton within the week. Supported by multiple positive factors, the overall pure benzene market rose this week, driving a significant rebound in the hydrogenated benzene market.

This week, the upward trend in the pure benzene market has driven an overall positive atmosphere in the industrial chain. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in the main production areas has risen to 7100-7200 yuan/ton, and market negotiations have performed well. In terms of supply, coking enterprises started to improve within the week, with an overall increase in operating rates and a relatively stable supply of crude benzene. In terms of demand, the overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is relatively stable, with good demand for crude benzene. Downstream enterprises purchase according to demand. The recent performance of the supply and demand side has been relatively stable, and the market trend is mainly driven by the pure benzene market. Supported by multiple positive factors, the overall auction price of crude benzene has risen this week, with an increase of about 300-350 yuan/ton. Among them, the Shanxi region executed 6350-6400 yuan/ton, an increase of 340-380 yuan/ton compared to last week. In the future, it is expected that the crude benzene market will operate strongly in the short term, with upward potential, boosted by the favorable industrial chain.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 15th to 22nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9325 yuan/ton to 9375 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.54% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.53%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.12%. The domestic price of cyclohexanone is relatively strong, and the raw material pure benzene market is rising, forming good cost support. The spot supply of cyclohexanone has slightly decreased, with downstream companies following up on demand. Driven by cost and supply factors, the market is actively exploring an increase.

On the cost side, pure benzene is the main raw material in the pure benzene market. International crude oil futures have continued to rise, providing positive support to the domestic pure benzene market in terms of mentality. Downstream styrene has seen a significant increase, and some downstream units have been put into operation as scheduled, resulting in a slight increase in demand compared to the previous period. As of December 22, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 7068.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 62.07%, which is -0.79% higher than last week. The weekly production is 94100 tons, which is -0.12 million tons compared to last week. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of caprolactam in the market has risen, mainly supported by a decrease in supply. Recently, due to temporary malfunctions in multiple units, the short-term negative impact has been reduced, and the spot supply of caprolactam has continued to be tight. In addition, upstream pure benzene prices have rebounded, leading to a preference for cost support. As a result, the price center of caprolactam has gradually increased this week. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the cost support is good, and downstream will follow up as needed. Currently, there is no inventory pressure on enterprises. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will tend to be strong and consolidate in the short term.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the average price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate is 49000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly weak, with a 2% decrease compared to the same period last week. The upstream continues to decline, and downstream demand is insufficient. The upward trend of lithium iron phosphate is not significant, with a 14.63% decrease compared to the same period last month.

Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has experienced a wide decline, with prices continuing to operate at a low level, dropping by 2% in a week. Downstream demand is insufficient, inventory is running at a high level, manufacturers are operating under pressure, and overall market consumption is slow. A pessimistic attitude is evident, with downstream restocking mainly based on demand, mainly supplying contract customers, overcapacity, and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the lithium battery market.

On December 20th, the chemical index was 875 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.50% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.32% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s lithium iron phosphate analyst believes that in the short term, lithium iron phosphate will maintain a weak operation and continue to monitor upstream trends.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7900.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7933.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.42%. The weekend price increased by 20.20% year-on-year. On December 18th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 40.44, an increase of 0.17 points from yesterday, a decrease of 61.70% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 34.26% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight increase in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6968.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6983.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.22%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.22% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly declined, with the market price dropping from 9575.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9525.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.52%, and the weekend price rising by 3.91% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In late December, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise. Although the downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly declined, downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. However, the upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

This week, the lead market (12.11-12.18) fluctuated upwards, with the average price in the domestic market at 15565 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 15590 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 0.16%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more declines than gains in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai lead continued to fluctuate at a low level at the beginning of the week. Later, with the release of monetary easing signals from the Federal Reserve, basic metals generally strengthened, leading to a slight increase in Shanghai lead. In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate did not change much during the week. Due to the impact of high raw material prices, some enterprises have limited production of recycled lead, and the overall supply of lead ingots is tight. In terms of demand, downstream enthusiasm is relatively strong in the off-season atmosphere, and the battery industry is mainly actively destocking. The demand for automotive batteries is stable, but the overall operation of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the overall demand is still weak. As lead ingots enter the active off-season market, the recent market trend has been greatly affected by fundamentals. Overall, under the influence of terminal demand off-season and high inventory, the lead ingot market is still under pressure. It is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly, and we will continue to pay attention to the macro impact in the future.

On December 17th, the non-ferrous index was 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 10 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that saw a month on month increase in the commodity price rise and fall list in the 50th week of 2023 (12.11-12.15). The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were silver (1.74%), dysprosium oxide (1.71%), and zinc (1.59%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are praseodymium oxide (-2.11%), dysprosium iron alloy (-1.35%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.10%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.11%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 15th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 17.82% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month and an increase of 12.93% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Entering mid December, the domestic prices of chloroform and hydrofluoric acid remained stable, while the overall raw material costs remained weak and stable. The quota surplus of R22 enterprises bottomed out, and the attitude of enterprises to support prices remained unchanged. The overall domestic R22 market prices remained stable and moving forward.

Entering mid December, the overall price of hydrofluoric acid in China has weakened and stabilized, while raw material costs have stabilized. With the support of low inventory levels and a willingness to raise prices among enterprises, the overall price of R134a in China has remained stable and moving forward.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and tends to stabilize, and the weak and stable cost of raw materials will provide some bottom support for the future refrigerant market prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, the remaining quota of the enterprise is insufficient, and the enterprise continues to be reluctant to sell at high prices. In the short term, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to operate steadily.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 12, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 7883 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as December 1, 2023. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 117 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (12.6-12.12), the overall domestic n-propanol market has shown a stable consolidation and operation trend. The overall market fluctuation of n-propanol in the market is relatively small, and the fundamental performance is relatively calm. The supply side of n-propanol has not changed much, while the downstream demand side continues to focus on rigid demand procurement. The transmission of supply and demand is relatively stable and normal. Some n-propanol suppliers adjust the price of n-propanol narrowly based on their own inventory and shipment situation, which has little impact on the overall market trend. As of December 12th, The domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7100-7850 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall inquiry atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is relatively mild, with new orders mainly based on demand and quantity. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the lead market (12.04-12.11) fluctuated downward, with the average price in the domestic market at 15755 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 15565 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a decrease of 1.21%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more declines than gains in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, the overall weak performance of Shanghai lead was driven by hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, which led to a strengthening of the US dollar. Non ferrous metals were generally under pressure, and the market was weak this week. London lead fell for thirteen consecutive days, and the overall decline of Shanghai lead followed suit. In recent times, the supply and demand have remained weak, with a slight increase in the supply of primary and recycled lead, which has dragged down market sentiment. In terms of demand, downstream enthusiasm is relatively strong in the off-season atmosphere, and the battery industry is mainly actively destocking. The demand for automotive batteries is stable, but the overall operation of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the overall demand is still weak. Overall, the lead ingot market currently has loose supply expectations and weak demand. Under the influence of the off-season of terminal demand and high inventory, it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly. We will continue to pay attention to the macro impact in the future.

On December 10th, the non-ferrous index was at 1090 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 49th week of 2023 (12.4-12.8), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (4.54%), nickel (3.38%), and electrolytic manganese (0.73%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 2 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were neodymium metal (-5.62%), neodymium oxide (-5.61%), and silver (-4.62%). The average increase and decrease this week was -1.32%.

The price of acetic anhydride has significantly increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 8th, the price of acetic anhydride was 6400 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.64% compared to the price of acetic anhydride on December 1st, which was 5837.50 yuan/ton. Acetic acid enterprises are experiencing continuous malfunctions, resulting in a decrease in acetic acid supply, a significant increase in acetic acid prices, and an increase in raw material costs; Acetic anhydride enterprises purchase raw materials at high prices, but their willingness to start production is not strong. In addition, due to the shutdown of acetic anhydride enterprises for troubleshooting, the operating load of acetic anhydride enterprises has decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride has increased significantly this week.

Recently, a certain acetic anhydride manufacturer in Anhui province has been in a state of shutdown for maintenance, while the acetic anhydride manufacturer in Shandong province has been affected by policies, resulting in low load operation of the equipment and a slight shortage of supply in the acetic anhydride market. The demand for acetic anhydride in the downstream consumer market has not shown a significant increase. Under the influence of weak demand, on-site operators mainly purchase small orders for basic needs, and their support for the acetic anhydride market is limited.

The price of acetic acid has significantly increased this week

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of December 8th, the price of acetic acid was 3650 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 9.77% compared to the price of 3325 yuan/ton on December 1st. Domestic acetic acid companies have reduced their production capacity, while multiple foreign acetic acid plants have also shut down due to force majeure factors, resulting in a surge in domestic export orders, low inventory of acetic acid manufacturers, insufficient supply of acetic acid, stable downstream demand for acetic acid, strong willingness of acetic acid manufacturers to raise prices, and a significant increase in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, the recovery time of overseas acetic acid parking facilities is uncertain, which still provides positive support for the domestic acetic acid market. However, considering the current high price of acetic acid and strong resistance from downstream, it may be difficult to maintain the price of acetic acid in the future, and the short-term cost support for acetic anhydride is still acceptable. In terms of supply and demand, acetic anhydride parking manufacturers are expected to restart in the near future, while the recovery time for load shedding manufacturers is uncertain. The supply of acetic anhydride in the future may remain tight, while there is currently no positive news on the demand side to boost it. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will be strong in the future, but the upward trend may be difficult to sustain.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda increased in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 822 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 844 yuan/ton. The overall price increased by 2.68%, and the price decreased by 23.13% compared to the same period last year. On November 29th, the chlor alkali index was 1074 points, an increase of 9 points from yesterday, a decrease of 49.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 50.84% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has risen this month. At the end of the month, there was a slight increase in caustic soda prices in Shandong region. Currently, the prices of caustic soda in Shandong region have stabilized, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 810-850 yuan/ton, and the prices of caustic soda in Jiangsu region have stabilized, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 820-890 yuan/ton.

The price of liquid alkali has been fluctuating, and the supply has increased. The actual shipment of enterprises is average. Downstream alumina mainly purchases caustic soda according to demand, and the downstream support for caustic soda is average, resulting in a consolidation of caustic soda prices.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 47th week of 2023 (11.20-11.24), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (5.02%), baking soda (1.14%), and caustic soda flakes (0.27%); The main commodities falling are PVC (-0.90%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.79%.

Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, there has been an increase in supply, and downstream demand is mainly cautious, with more purchases made according to demand. It is expected that the trend will be mainly consolidation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.