1、 Price trend

Take the sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide with a large amount of goods sold in the domestic market as an example. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide has decreased this week. Last week, the average price of titanium dioxide in four countries was 18066.67 yuan / ton, and this Thursday, the average price was 17816.67 yuan / ton, and the price reduction rate in the week was 1.38%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market price was lowered. The domestic titanium dioxide market is relatively light, the market is weak, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the orders are received cautiously. The inventory pressure of titanium dioxide manufacturers is large, and the factory price is reduced. After the two enterprises sent a letter to announce the rise in the week, the price of some low-priced titanium dioxide in the market stopped falling and stabilized. Up to now, the quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is between 16000-19500 yuan / ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 14000-16000 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area decreased slightly this week., At present, the market operation is insufficient and the spot is tight. However, the downstream purchasers are under great pressure. They mainly wait and see, and the actual transaction situation is general. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure. Most enterprises are mainly supporting prices, and the overall market is still weak. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax for 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1420-1450 yuan / ton, the quotation excluding tax for 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2100-2150 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium ore is about 2300-2450 yuan / ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate will maintain stable operation, and the actual transaction price is a single negotiation.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers fell this week According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell this week. The quotation was reduced from 462 yuan / ton last Thursday to 400 yuan / ton this Thursday, with a decrease of 13.42%. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost is generally supported. The market prices of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate in the downstream declined slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers for sulfuric acid was general.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst of business club believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market price has been lowered this week, the domestic market demand is still weak, and the atmosphere is cold. The raw material titanium concentrate market is weak, the sulfuric acid price has dropped sharply, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be weak and stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be a single negotiation.

Zinc price rose on August 17

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose on August 17, and the zinc market recovered. On August 17, the zinc price was 25712 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.21% over the zinc price of 25156 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On August 17, the zinc price rose sharply; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 11.52% year on year.

Key points of analysis

The hot summer in Europe has led to higher than normal natural gas demand, intensified energy crisis in Europe, reduced natural gas supply in Russia, soaring energy prices in Europe, increased production reduction and shutdown of zinc smelters in Europe, reduced supply in Europe, sufficient supply in domestic zinc market, large increase in zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market, and increased pressure on zinc inventory decline. With the advent of the golden nine and silver ten, the domestic infrastructure projects have started to increase, the supply and demand of the domestic zinc market have recovered, the supply and demand of the zinc market have not yet recovered to the expected level, and the downward pressure of the zinc market still exists and the upward momentum is large.

Future forecast

The supply and demand of zinc market are weak, the overall international zinc market is in short supply, and the domestic zinc market is in sufficient supply and insufficient demand. In the future, the driving force of zinc price rise still exists but there is insufficient room for rise. The short-term zinc price mainly rises slightly, and the long-term zinc price fluctuates broadly and stabilizes.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market was consolidated and operated last week, and the spot price of wire drawing brand was adjusted in a narrow range. As of August 15, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8141.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the supply and demand of propylene market increased last week, and the enterprise increased the price in line with the trend. However, due to the high inventory in the front market, considering the delivery speed and the downstream acceptance, the price increase was cautious and difficult. The actual overall market supply and demand pressure still exists, and the price trend is still weak, maintaining the trend of large decline and small rise. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and volatile in the near future.

Propylene prices rose slightly, the international chemical industry chain continued to fluctuate under the influence of many macro inflation, and the cost side of PP was generally supported recently. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises was stable last week. In the early stage, the enterprises independently reduced the load and maintained. At present, the industrial load is not high, and the supply pressure of some parts is diverted, and the effect of digesting inventory is gradually shown. The improvement of downstream demand is limited, and the inventory position decreases slightly. The purchase and follow-up of the downstream factories of wire drawing materials tend to be just needed to maintain production. In terms of operation, they buy at a low price and digest the low-end goods. The trader’s attitude is correct and the offer is stable. However, the operating rate pattern of the terminal enterprises in the off-season level has not changed. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will continue to be weak in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 15, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was in a narrow range. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8166.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 0.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 4.30%. Last week, the load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, was maintained as a whole, and the demand and operation of end-users continued the off-season mode of large-scale enterprises maintaining production and small and medium-sized enterprises reducing the load. The digestion speed of the product is general, and the replenishment operation is biased towards zero delivery of bulk orders. However, the capacity loss of wire drawing materials is high, the supply side is weak, and the spot price is generally stable. It is expected that the fiber market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the market of meltblown PP fell last week. As of August 15, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9310 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.13% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, and down by – 2.68% compared with the same period last year. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, there has been a rebound in some areas of China, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure is not high. Medical meltblown cloth materials are in the off-season of consumption, the demand is reduced, and the support for spot prices is not obvious. There is sufficient inventory of meltblown materials in the market, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of meltblown PP will still be dominated by weak operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that: last week, the polypropylene market was adjusted and operated in a narrow range, the raw material propylene market rose slightly, and the cost side of PP was generally supported. The demand of terminal enterprises is weak, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the recent PP market will continue to operate smoothly.

Price dynamics: on August 15, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 7950 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 7950 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7950 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 7950 yuan / ton;

Others: the quotation of Jingbo Petrochemical is 8050 yuan / ton, the quotation of HSBC Petrochemical is 8000 yuan / ton, the quotation of Weilian chemical is 8003 yuan / ton, the quotation of Xinhai Petrochemical is 8100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Hongrun Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the market expects that the oil supply in the Gulf of Mexico, which was interrupted before, will soon recover. In addition, the economic recession is expected to continue. The risk of energy demand decline has always covered the futures market, and the short-term oil price is still fluctuating in a long-term stalemate.

Asian American arbitrage window is closed, Asian pure benzene flows to China, imported pure benzene increases, and East China ports are expected to be accumulated. The downstream demand is poor, the supply of pure benzene is increased, and it is expected that the short-term weak operation of pure benzene. Today, the domestic price of pure benzene is 7950-8200 yuan / ton.

During the week, ethylene oxide digested the decline and the price remained stable. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 6300 yuan / ton.

Due to the slowdown of economic growth, high freight and weak global demand, the export of steam cracking unit products is hindered. Therefore, the current demand for spot naphtha is low. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia continues to decline, and has dropped to US $850 / T at present. As of the closing of Asia on August 11, the spot price difference between ethylene and naphtha CFR in Japan was US $135 / T. due to the weakness of ethylene, the price difference decreased, and the economy of naphtha cracking ethylene was poor.

At present, private enterprises mainly deliver orders. Under the pressure of cost, the supply of ethylene oxide continues to be tight. The zhouneselbang unit has been shut down for a short time due to failure, and it is expected that the situation will improve next week. It is reported that Yangzi Petrochemical Company plans to restart the unit on the 20th of this month. Maoming Petrochemical Company plans to restart the unit within this week, and the unit will be discharged soon. Wuhan Petrochemical Company will stop next weekend and restart in September. According to the latest ethylene price in Northeast Asia, ethylene oxide has a loss of about 500 yuan / ton.

The overall demand of the downstream industry continues to be weak, and the improvement power of monomer terminal demand is insufficient, and the demand for raw material ethylene oxide is still difficult to release.

Forecast: temporarily stable. People in the industry generally believe that the tight supply situation is expected to continue until the Yangtze River is started.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate kept a small upward trend this week. On August 11, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 463000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.09% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on August 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 462600 yuan / ton). On August 11, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 480600 yuan / ton, up 0.08% compared with the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on August 7 (480200 yuan / ton).

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate showed a small upward trend this week. At present, the supply of lithium carbonate in the spot market is a little tight. Due to the shortage of raw materials of some manufacturers, the production output of lithium carbonate is less than expected. Most of them are delivered by long orders, and there are relatively few zero orders. Due to the influence of limited power policies of enterprises in some regions, the output cannot be increased, which makes the recent volume of lithium carbonate not good.

On the demand side, the production of downstream enterprises is stable, and the production capacity is gradually climbing, which also leads to a steady increase in the demand for lithium carbonate. However, the price acceptance of high-level lithium carbonate is still low, and most of them just need to purchase, and the upward speed of the price is slow.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is stable, and the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is fluctuating and rising, which has a certain support for lithium hydroxide. The overall supply of the market is mainly stable, the demand side is weak, the shipping atmosphere is flat, and the negotiation focus of the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market is stable.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream has slightly decreased, and the downstream phosphorus source has declined under the downward pressure and the downstream pressure, driving the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate to decline. In addition, the supply growth of iron and lithium terminal is higher than the demand growth, which makes the price slightly lower.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business club, the spot supply of lithium carbonate market has declined recently, which makes the price of lithium carbonate show an upward trend. However, the demand side currently has no large support. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to be stable and small in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market fell slightly this week (August 1-5), of which polyester POY fell by 1.17%, polyester DTY and polyester FDY increased by 0.73% and 0.65% respectively. At present, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7700-8200 yuan / ton, the price of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 9100-9450 yuan / ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 8400-8700 yuan / ton in the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market unit: yuan / ton

Commodities, prices at the beginning of the week, prices at the weekend, weekly rise and fall, year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester FDY., 8570.00., 8514.17., – 0.65%, + 6.07%

Polyester DTY., 9348.64%, 9280.45, -0.73%, – 2.00%

Polyester POY., 8061.11., 7966.67., – 1.17%, + 1.34%

The downside risk of international oil prices has increased, and the cost side has shifted downward. The Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 50 basis points to curb the economic recession that may be triggered by inflation, which continued to be negative for oil prices. This was compounded by the sharp increase in US commercial crude oil inventories last week and the increase in production targets of Oil Producing Countries OPEC. As of August 4, it fell to the lowest level since February. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $88.54/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.12/barrel.

PTA followed the decline in crude oil. As of August 5, the average market price was 5825 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from the beginning of the week and up 10.86% year-on-year. However, in August, the maintenance of PTA units increased. In the parking of 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo, 1.5 million tons of Jiaxing petrochemical and 2.2 million tons of Hengli Dalian, the load of 700000 tons of Yadong petrochemical and 2.5 million tons of Baihong dropped to 80%, and the load of 2.25 million tons of Yisheng Dalian dropped to 60%. The load on the supply side decreased significantly, and the industrial operation dropped to around 66%.

July August is the traditional off-season of the textile and garment industry. Domestic terminal orders are still weak, and the market mentality is wait-and-see. Only a small amount of purchase is needed. In the off-season of the industry, the start-up of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving stopped around 50%. It is understood that the export foreign trade orders of terminal weaving and texturing enterprises are acceptable, and the number of orders received is generally 20-30 days.

Business analysts believe that the favorable news of PTA supply reduction has been digested due to the decline of international crude oil price, and the supply will be restored with the gradual restart of the overhaul unit, with the cost side dominated by bad news. In the downstream market, August is the traditional off-season of consumption, and the probability of continuous recovery of textile enterprises is relatively low. In the absence of effective improvement in demand, polyester prices will continue to follow the cost side fluctuations.

Zinc price rose on August 9

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose slightly on August 9, and the zinc market stopped falling and recovered. On August 9, the zinc price was 24524 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.10% over the zinc price of 24500 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On August 9, the zinc price stopped falling and rose; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 8.16% year on year.

Key points of analysis

The European energy crisis still exists, the zinc smelting cost remains high, and the supply of zinc is insufficient; Downstream enterprises have resumed production and work, domestic infrastructure projects have started to increase, the supply and demand of zinc market have recovered, the supply and demand of zinc market have not yet recovered to the expected level, and the downward pressure of zinc market still exists and the upward momentum is large.

Future forecast

The supply is insufficient and the demand is warming up. The downward pressure of zinc price still exists and the upward momentum is large. It is expected that the zinc price will rise slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol dropped slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic mainstream market of neopentyl glycol dropped from 11066.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10433.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 5.72%. On August 8, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 48.84, a decrease of 1.44 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, and a decrease of 52.86% from the highest point of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price dropped slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market in China this week decreased from 7266.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6766.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 6.88%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in the middle and early August may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell slightly, the cost support was weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weakened. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly.

The focus of domestic MIBK market negotiation this week is mainly downward. The market negotiation focus in East China dropped to 10000-10200 yuan / ton, and a small number of orders fell below 10000 yuan. The market negotiation reference in South China was about 10300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the acetone market declined slightly. Although the recent overhaul of the acetone plant at the raw materials end increased and the social supply was expected to decrease, the sluggish terminal procurement consumed the good supply side. The acetone market fell significantly at the weekend. The negotiated value in East China was 4850 yuan / t, and the short-term raw materials still showed a narrow downward trend.

The overall change of the downstream demand side is not large, and it has been in a state of insufficient buying for a long time. The carriers have to give up profits to ship. In addition, the market negotiation has been declining under the influence of the external environment.

In August, the operating rate of MIBK increased and the supply increased slightly, while the orders of the largest downstream antioxidant industry were insufficient, so it was difficult to improve the demand for raw materials. Generally speaking, the supply was still sufficient next week, and the demand was sluggish. It is expected that the weak adjustment will be made next week, and it is expected that the price in East China will be about 9900 yuan / ton.