This month, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fluctuated. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China first rose from 3900.00 yuan / ton on August 1 to 4050.00 yuan / ton on August 8, an increase of 3.85%. Then, it opened the falling mode and fell to 3600.00 yuan / ton on August 24, down 11.11%. At the end of the last month, there was a slight increase of 2.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.11%.

On August 29, the calcium carbide commodity index was 96.94, up 1.31 points from yesterday, down 54.32% from 212.23 points (October 26, 2021), the highest point in the cycle, and up 74.70% from 55.49 points, the lowest point on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell slightly this month.

From the K-bar chart of calcium carbide week, the price of calcium carbide fell slightly in August, with the largest drop in the third week, with a drop of 7%.

General upstream support and weak downstream demand

Judging from the upstream and downstream market conditions, the price of calcium carbide upstream blue carbon is temporarily stable this month. This month, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. The market price of PVC in this month decreased from 6775.71 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6510.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.92% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.19% compared with the same period last year. This month, the ex factory price of 1,4 butanediol dropped significantly, from 12420.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 10175.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 18.08%. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide fell sharply this month, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The upstream support has improved, and the downstream purchase is generally calcium carbide, which may rebound slightly in the future

In the middle and early September, the market of calcium carbide rebounded slightly, mainly through consolidation. The price of upstream raw material blue carbon has risen slightly recently, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The market prices of 1,4 butanediol and PVC in the downstream fell sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. In the later market, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in mid to early September, mainly for consolidation.

In August, DOP prices fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of August 31, the DOP price was 10075 yuan / ton, up 12.89% from the DOP price of 8925 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In the first and middle of August, the DOP price fluctuated and stabilized, and the price rose sharply in the second half of August. The plasticizer industry chain is weak in both supply and demand, and the driving force for the rise of DOP is insufficient. However, the short-term shutdown accumulated the rise of raw material prices, which stimulated the sharp rise of DOP prices at the end of the month.

Operation of plasticizer enterprises with high temperature and electricity limitation decreased

Affected by high temperature and drought, factories in Sichuan and Chongqing have been shut down continuously. On August 21, Sichuan launched the first level emergency response of energy supply guarantee for emergencies, and Sichuan Province extended the deadline for limiting power supply and stopping production to 24:00 on August 25. Hubei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Chongqing, Zhejiang and Shanghai all have different power limitation measures. Limited by the impact of the film, the operation of plasticizer enterprises and end users in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased, and the operation rate of plasticizer enterprises was as low as 40%. The start-up of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizer is insufficient, which is good for plasticizer.

With the decrease of temperature and rainfall in some areas, the situation of power shortage in Sichuan has been alleviated. On the 28th, the daily power generation capacity of Sichuan Hydropower Station was 460 million kwh, 9.5% higher than the lowest value in the previous period. As of 12:00 on the 28th, the general industrial and commercial power consumption in Sichuan Province has been restored. With the continuous support of the State Grid, the contradiction between power supply and demand in Sichuan will be basically solved by the end of August and the beginning of September. After the end of power rationing, the supply and demand of enterprises in the plasticizer industry chain returned to normal, and the support for the rise of plasticizer was weakened.

The price of raw materials rose at the end of the month

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated in August, and the price of isooctanol rose sharply at the end of the month. As of August 31, the price of isooctanol was 9133.33 yuan / ton, up by 12.76% compared with the price of isooctanol 8100 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In August, isooctanol enterprises had a lot of maintenance, and with the high power limit, the production of isooctanol enterprises increased, and the start-up of isooctanol enterprises was low. However, compared with the lower start-up of downstream DOP enterprises, the supply of isooctanol was relatively sufficient, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, and the cost of DOP increased. The driving force for future growth still exists.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose in August, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply at the end of the month. The overall market of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. As of August 31, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8725 yuan / ton, up 9.75% from 7950 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In the first and middle of August, the price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly. Affected by the high-temperature power limitation and the rising of the chemical industry, the price of phthalic anhydride increased significantly in the second half of August, the cost of DOP raw materials increased, and the driving force for the rise of DOP increased.

In August, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell in August. As of August 31, the price of PVC was 6474.29 yuan / ton, down 4.45% from 6775.71 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. Affected by the high temperature, power and production were limited in some areas, and the operating rate of PVC enterprises decreased. Although the PVC price rebounded briefly, the overall PVC fundamentals still lacked the support of rising, and the demand for DOP was weak. In the future, the driving force for the rise of DOP was weakened and the downward pressure was large.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analyst of business agency, the supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain in August were weak. In the first and middle of August, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and consolidated. Due to the impact of the high temperature limit, many places stopped production and reduced production. The start of the plasticizer industry chain fell, the demand for plasticizer was weak, the price of raw material isooctanol rose sharply at the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride soared, the cost of plasticizer DOP rose, and the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply at the end of the month. In the future, with the expiration of the power limit, the supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain will recover, and the support for the rise of raw material prices will be insufficient. In the future, the price of DOP will be stable due to the fluctuation, the demand of DOP will be weak, the cost will be stable, and the power for the rise of DOP will be insufficient. It is expected that the price of DOP will be stable in the future.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, as of August 30, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7400.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 22.65% compared with the price on August 1, a year-on-year decrease of 49.20% in a three-month cycle, and a decrease of 51.53% compared with the same period last year.

The acrylic acid market fell in August. At the beginning of the month, the market price of raw material propylene fell, the cost support weakened, the demand side was in the off-season, the high temperature and the environmental protection inspection in some areas affected, the trading atmosphere of the acrylic acid market was weak and the market was weak. Around the middle of the year, with the rise of raw material propylene price and cost support, the market atmosphere was improved compared with the previous period. The price was stable and slightly increased. After the rise, the market was mainly stable and wait-and-see. Some units were overhauled and the operating rate declined. The market transaction was mainly just needed, and the market negotiation was mild. In the second half of the year, the fundamentals were weak as a whole, the prices fell, and the downstream inquiry and purchase were just needed. Near the end of the month, the market was stable and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

As for upstream propylene, according to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to fluctuate downward in August, and the price further declined. The market was at 7348 yuan / ton at the beginning of August, and the average price at the end of the month was 7036 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of 4.25%. The average price within the month was the lowest 6834 yuan / ton.

According to the acrylic acid analyst of business club, the price of raw material propylene is rising, the cost support is strengthened, and the Jinjiu is coming, and the market atmosphere is warming up. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, so we need to pay more attention to the changes of market news.

Near the end of the month, the overall weakness of the domestic EVA market is difficult to change, and the price is still down. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 19733.33 yuan / ton on August 21 and 18866.67 yuan / ton on August 29, with a decrease of 4.39% in the week and 2.92% compared with the same period last year.

As of August 29, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

Product, manufacturer, model, ex factory price

EVA, Yanshan Petrochemical, 18j3., 18300 yuan / ton

EVA, Beijing Organic, y2022, 18800 yuan / ton

EVA, BASF Yangzi, v5110j, 19500 yuan / ton

This week, the weak trend of domestic EVA market is difficult to change, and the price continues to fall. During the week, the ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises was still reduced, with a range of 1200-1400 yuan / ton. At present, the market demand is not significantly improved, and the downstream is mostly replenished according to demand, which just needs to be followed up. In terms of cost, the price of international crude oil fluctuated and rose during the week, bringing limited support to the market. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the attitude of the merchants is not optimistic. The transaction is dominated by single negotiation.

At present, the support brought by the cost is limited, the ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises is still reduced, the consumption of goods in the market is slow, the improvement of terminal demand is not obvious, and the downstream mainly maintains replenishment according to demand. The market trading atmosphere is general, but near the end of the month, the possibility of price adjustment of petrochemical enterprises is unlikely. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will mainly be subject to horizontal adjustment in the short term.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the price of tetrahydrofuran increased slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran was 14800.00 yuan / ton, and on Friday, the average price of tetrahydrofuran was 14850.00 yuan / ton, up 0.34%.

At present, the quotation of tetrahydrofuran enterprises is temporarily stable. The BDO of raw materials is on the sidelines for the time being, while the support of the cost side is temporarily stable, while the terminal demand remains weak, the downstream just needs orders to follow up, the trading atmosphere in the market is light, the supply and demand negotiation game continues, the market shipping mentality is obvious, the narrow margin profit concession negotiation is the mainstream, and the market negotiation focus is weak and stable.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of tetrahydrofuran in some enterprises in the near future (for reference only, the actual transaction prices of different brands, different specifications and products are mainly negotiated).

According to the tetrahydrofuran analyst of business society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran cost has stabilized, the downstream ptemg spandex is still in a weak operation, and the manufacturer’s quotation follows the market. In the short term, the market as a whole still has room for decline.

On August 25, the price of o-benzene was temporarily stable

It can be seen from the price trend chart of o-benzene in the business community that the price of o-benzene was temporarily stable on August 25. As of August 25, the price of ortho benzene was 8000 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of ortho benzene on August 24, the previous trading day. The price of o-xylene industry chain is temporarily stable, and the market of o-xylene is strong and stable.

Key points of the market

The price of crude oil fluctuates and rises, the price of mixed xylene fluctuates and rises, and the cost of o-xylene rises; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased, and the demand for ortho benzene recovered. The rising cost and the warming demand have caused the external price of adjacent benzene to fluctuate and rise, and the positive effect on the domestic market of adjacent benzene has increased and the downward pressure still exists.

Future outlook

The rising cost and the demand are warming up, and the downward pressure of the good neighbor benzene is still there. In the future, the neighbor benzene market is strong and stable temporarily.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 24, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in the mainstream areas in China was around 1086 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100 yuan / ton), the price decreased by 14 yuan / ton. Compared with July 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1066 yuan / ton), the price increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 1.81%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business association that in the middle and early ten days of August, the domestic medium and high-grade phosphate ore market continued to be consolidated at a high level, the on-site supply was still tight, and the downstream demand was mainly based on demand purchase. Near the end of the month, after the downstream phosphate fertilizer market turned cold, the terminal demand support of the phosphate ore market was loosened, and the market price in the field was weaker than that in the previous period. On August 22, some mining enterprises with higher prices in the previous period slightly reduced the price of 30% phosphate rock by 50-80 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the field was narrowed. As of August 24, the market price of 30% phosphate ore in China was around 1050-1100 yuan / ton, The specific price is also related to factors such as powder to block ratio. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 850-980 yuan / ton. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. At present, the market of phosphate rock quarry is light, and the downstream purchase is moderate, and the transaction is generally general.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, from August to August (August 1-August 23), the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been on the rise as a whole. According to the data of business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 32000 yuan / ton on August 23, up 17.43% compared with August 1 (27250 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the supply side of the phosphate rock quarry is still slightly tight, and the demand side is generally supported. The phosphate rock data analyst of the Business Association believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock Market in China will mainly be adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 23, the average price of PMMA of general transparent grade and excellent products in China this week was 16425.00 yuan / ton. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the price of the same period last week, the price fluctuation range was small. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained around 16500 yuan / ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable. The focus of negotiation was stable. The price range of this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent grade excellent products is 16425.00 yuan / ton. The overall market is stable, and the price change is not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is around 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants are actively shipping and giving up orders. Compared with the price of last week, the price of PMMA is stable, the overall supply and demand is balanced, and the purchase is just needed. At present, the negotiation focus is stable and the supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on August 22, the rubber and plastic index was 695 points, which was the same as yesterday, down 34.43% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 31.63% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that the stable operation of PMMA price is expected in the short term and the stable operation of PMMA market in the short term. (if you want to obtain more commodity information and master commodity prices, please subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3516 yuan / ton on August 15, and 3466 yuan / ton on August 21. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 1.42%.

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4425 yuan / ton on August 15, and the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4425 yuan / ton on August 21. The market price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the center of gravity of ammonium phosphate market continued to move downward, and the trend was weak. The market confidence was insufficient, and the operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises decreased. The high level of raw phosphate rock is stable, and the price of raw sulfur is stable after the price rebound last week. The market is still in a wait-and-see mood. The operating rate of the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises rebounded, and the raw material monoammonium was purchased on demand. Domestic demand for diammonium is weak and export volume is poor. At present, most manufacturers of ammonium phosphate have suspended their quotation, and the quotation of traders is chaotic. This week, the factory price of 55% powdered ammonium monohydrate in Hubei is about 3000 yuan / ton, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium monohydrate in Sichuan is 3000-3700 yuan / ton, and the market price of 73% powdered ammonium monohydrate is 6050-6550 yuan / ton. This week, the factory price of 64% of diammonium in Hubei is about 4100 yuan / ton, the market price of 64% of diammonium in Yunnan is about 4200-4700 yuan / ton, the market price of 64% of diammonium in Guizhou is about 4150 yuan / ton, and the market price of 57% of diammonium is about 3750 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the sulfur price in East China was stable this week, and the average price was 1163.33 yuan / ton on August 21. The sulfur quotation of refinery enterprises in Shandong Province is stable, and the mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 1120-1290 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1050-1150 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual transaction price shall prevail. The downstream sulfuric acid is weak, the demand for sulfur is limited, the enthusiasm for entering the market is general, the refinery shipment is acceptable, the inventory is rational, and the attitude of the operators is mainly wait-and-see.

In terms of raw phosphorous ore, the domestic phosphorous ore market has been consolidated at a high level this week. At present, the domestic phosphate rock supply is still tight, and the spot circulation is small. Some large phosphate rocks continue to be mainly used for their own use, while some other mining enterprises continue to receive pre-sale orders. The details are discussed in a single way according to the regional volume and other factors. For some enterprises that need to purchase phosphate ore as raw material, the continuous high price of phosphate rock and tight supply have brought certain pressure to the enterprises. As of August 19, the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate ammonium analyst of the business community believes that the recent trend of raw materials is volatile and the cost support is general. The downstream demand is low, the purchasing enthusiasm is not good, and the on-site trading volume is low. It is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 19, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17500.00 yuan / ton, up 2.94% from the price of 17000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 5.00% from the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 19, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24333.33 yuan / ton, up 8.15% from the price of 22500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 17.74% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of refrigerant R22 increased slightly, and the price offered by enterprises increased slightly. The price of raw material chloroform rebounded and rebounded as a whole in the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid continued to be weak and stable. The raw material cost rose slightly. Under the support of cost, the price of R22 rose slightly this week.

Since August, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid has been generally weak and stable, and the price of trichloroethylene has continued to rise. In addition, some regions have limited power supply and some manufacturers have shut down for maintenance. The market supply of R134a has decreased slightly. Meanwhile, summer is the traditional peak season for refrigerant demand. Supported by cost and demand, the price of refrigerant R134a has risen this week.

3、 Future forecast

The refrigerant analysts of business club believe that the domestic R22 and R134a prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term under the support of cost and demand.