1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine has slightly increased this week. On July 3rd, the average market price of bromine was 18000 yuan/ton. On July 7th, the average market price of bromine was 18200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 68.75%. On July 6th, the bromine commodity index was 63.86, an increase of 0.7 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 73.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 8.38% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have slightly increased this week. The mainstream market price in Shandong region is around 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the overall market is stable with minor fluctuations. A large bromine enterprise in Shandong province has been shut down for one week for maintenance. However, the overall trading atmosphere in the bromine market is light, with no significant increase in downstream support. Recently, the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand, and the attitude of the bromine industry is generally average. The price adjustment of bromine enterprises is mainly supported by costs, and downstream manufacturers are buying at a moderate price.

In terms of raw materials: The domestic sulfur market is on the rise, with an average market price of 713.33 yuan/ton on July 3rd and 730 yuan/ton on July 7th, with a price increase of 2.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 76.95%. The inventory of manufacturers is maintained rationally, downstream demand is insufficient, and the enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is not good. A small amount of trading is followed up according to demand, and the market negotiation atmosphere is weak. The sulfur market is on the sidelines.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will stabilize slightly in the near future, and the upstream sulfur price will rise. The demand for downstream flame retardants and intermediates in the bromine industry will continue to be average in the near future. Bromine enterprises will adjust their prices slightly due to cost support, and the overall operation of the industry will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis. Based on the comprehensive supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term bromine price will consolidate and operate, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining and hydrogenation Naphtha mainstream was 7729.00 yuan/ton, up 1.81% from 7589.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local refining and hydrogenation Naphtha fell after rising.

As of June 30, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run Naphtha mainstream was 7611.50 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from 7334.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local straight run Naphtha fell after rising.

On June 29, the Naphtha commodity index was 96.62, down 0.96 points from yesterday, down 20.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and up 128.74% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In June, the price of locally refined Naphtha rose first and then fell. At present, the mainstream price of locally refined hydrogenated Naphtha is about 7700-7900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run Naphtha is about 7600-7800 yuan/ton. In the first ten days of June, the terminal was reformed and ethylene was released in a centralized way. The terminal of Naphtha market just needed support. The market turnover was good and the refinery actively pushed up. In late June, the restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with light market trading and refineries reducing prices for shipments. As of the week ending June 27th, Singapore’s fuel inventory increased by 1.859 million barrels, reaching a two-week high of 20.394 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory increased by 248000 barrels, reaching a two week high of 7.98 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory decreased by 105000 barrels to a nearly six-month low of 14.626 million barrels.

Upstream: The international crude oil market fluctuated in June. On the one hand, based on the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rate hikes have not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure has increased, putting pressure on the oil market. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China’s refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted.

Downstream: The price of toluene fluctuated and declined in June. On June 1st, the price of toluene was 7150 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 7060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. In June, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and decreased. On June 1st, the price of mixed xylene was 7430 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21%. The price of P-Xylene rose slightly in June. As of June 30, the ex factory price of P-Xylene in China was 8250 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from 8200 yuan/ton on June 1.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business society, recently, Naphtha terminal of local refining has been restructured, ethylene demand has continued to be weak, market turnover has been light, and refineries have reduced prices for shipment. It is expected that Naphtha of local refining will decline slightly in the near future.

In June 2023, the price of viscose staple fibers remained stable and slightly decreased, and the entire industry chain was operating in a weak position. Prices fell, resulting in poor demand performance. Downstream cotton yarn factories had weak purchasing power, and bearish sentiment continued to decline. There were not many actual transactions, and the overall market was waiting for the introduction of price policies from high-end manufacturers. Except for some factories with inventory pressure, other manufacturers are relatively controllable. The price of raw material Dissolving pulp has weakened, and the overall cost support has weakened. The downstream cotton yarn trading has slowed down, and the production enthusiasm of the yarn factory is not high due to losses. The price center has slightly declined, and the overall operating load has a downward trend.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable and slightly decreased in June. As of June 30th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly decrease of 1.05%.

Raw material market

In June, the price center of raw material Dissolving pulp weakened. Domestic Dissolving pulp: two manufacturers in Shandong and Hunan produced broadleaf Dissolving pulp. The price of imported Dissolving pulp has been lowered. The transaction of broad-leaved Dissolving pulp is 870-880 dollars/ton, and that of coniferous Dissolving pulp is 880 dollars/ton.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Chart of the price trend of human cotton yarn

The downstream demand for human cotton yarn is light, and the shipment of yarn factories is slowing down, especially for ring spinning and vortex spinning. The overall negotiation space has increased, the market has weakened, prices have declined, and transactions are average. The pressure on product inventory is gradually increasing, and the overall operating load has a downward trend. Under inventory pressure in some enterprises, there is a phenomenon of price reduction and promotion. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class products) was 17400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the textile terminal market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

Future Market Forecast

The overall buying and selling atmosphere in the short-term market is difficult to improve, and costs are weakening. Without significant improvement in terminal demand, the market will enter a wait-and-see adjustment period. The market is bearish in July, and analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be weak, stable, and volatile in the short term.

Weak stability of ethylene oxide prices in June

According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic Spot market will be 6000 yuan/ton on June 29, 2023, which will be the same as that at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer prices have slightly increased, and market participants believe that the price increase may stimulate the enthusiasm of monomer enterprises to start construction, thus providing some positive support for the ethylene oxide market.

Overview of Fundamentals

At the end of last month, large factories lowered their prices by 500 yuan/ton. In June, epoxy ethane basically maintained a horizontal operation of 6000 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, Taixing Jinyan underwent maintenance, Liaoyang Petrochemical temporarily suspended production, Sanjiang Chemical, Yangzi Petrochemical and other companies reduced production and operation; Due to the force majeure, the load of Zhongke device dropped to a low level, resulting in the gradual tightening of supply in South China. After returning to Taixing after the holiday, Jinyan began to resume production, and the overall capacity utilization rate of ethylene oxide slightly improved.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic asphalt market fluctuated and sorted out in June. From June 1st to 28th, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province dropped from 3774 yuan/ton to 3769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. The maximum amplitude for the month was 0.92%, and the price decreased by 18.52% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, international crude oil was operating weakly, coupled with rainfall in various regions, resulting in slightly flat demand and limited support for spot asphalt prices. There are differences in the situation of local refining, and the prices are mixed. In the first half of this month, international crude oil was relatively strong, but downstream demand remained sluggish in recovery. The transmission of cost benefits is not smooth, and the upward momentum of the asphalt market is insufficient. The ups and downs in different regions are slightly different, and the overall fluctuation is not significant. In the latter half of the month, international crude oil remained mainly volatile, with varying regional demand performance. Asphalt in the northern region requires some support, and shipments are relatively smooth, with prices slightly increasing.

On the cost side, the crude oil market price range fluctuated in June. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.37 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.35 per barrel. On the one hand, from the perspective of the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rate hikes has not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure is increasing, and the oil market is under pressure. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China’s refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises will resume asphalt production. Drive an increase in construction within the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The demand in the northern region is still acceptable, while the rainfall in many southern regions and the rainy season in eastern China are important factors limiting market demand. The overall demand side of the asphalt market is biased towards bearish effects.

As of the close of June 28th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2310 opened at 3562 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3580 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3532 yuan/ton. It closed at 3562 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27% or 0.75% compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 257373 lots, a holding volume of 244084 lots, and a daily increase of 9782 lots.

In the future market forecast, supply continues to rebound and the market atmosphere is weak. Downstream demand is weak and actual demand is weak. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Chlorinated paraffins rose slightly this month. On June 1, the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5266 yuan/ton, and on June 27, the average price of domestic Chlorinated paraffins 52 market was 5283 yuan/ton. The price of Chlorinated paraffins rose 0.32% this month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, domestic Chlorinated paraffins prices rose and fell with each other, shaking the finishing operation. This month, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has increased, while the price of raw material liquid wax has decreased, and cost support is still acceptable. In the first half of June, the price of Chlorinated paraffins fell. Downstream demand is relatively low, with primary demand orders. In the second half of June, the price of Chlorinated paraffins rose and fluctuated along with the trend of raw material prices. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, and market transactions are improving. As of June 27, the ex factory quotation of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 5600 yuan/ton, that of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Northeast China was about 5000 yuan/ton, and that of Chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong was about 5250 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from March 27, 2023 to June 19, 2023, it can be seen that domestic Chlorinated paraffins rise and fall in the cycle. There was a significant increase in June, with the highest increase of 2.88% in the week ending June 19th.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has fluctuated and fallen this month, and the market trend is weak. Liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated this month, with an overall upward trend. The market transaction is acceptable, and the manufacturer has stable shipments.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Chlorinated paraffins from the business agency believe that the price of liquid chlorine and liquid wax of raw materials has dropped recently, weakening the cost support. Market wait-and-see sentiment has increased, and manufacturers are stabilizing their shipments. It is expected that the price of Chlorinated paraffins will be stable and weak in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong fell in June. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 4850.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 4662.50 yuan/ton, down 3.87% and 13.39% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: In June, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. The reason for the decline was due to the lower coal prices, weakened support for methanol production costs, weak demand for traditional demand entering the off-season, and the recovery of some methanol parking devices. In addition, new investment devices such as Xuzhou Longxingtai and Jiyang New Energy Source have production plans in the near future, and overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient. The reason for the increase in late October is the rebound in coal prices, good cost support, and the methanol market following the cost increase.

Recently, the domestic methanol market is dominated by narrow range consolidation, and the cost support is poor. The transaction of Paraformaldehyde is light. The Paraformaldehyde analysts of the business community predict that the price may fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the isopropanol market has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6420 yuan/ton, while on Sunday it was 6460 yuan/ton. The price increased slightly during the week, with a range of 0.62%.

The isopropanol market slightly increased this week. At present, the market situation is average. The upstream acetone market price rose first and then fell, while the price of propylene rose, and cost support was still acceptable. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with on-demand orders being the main focus, and many businesses maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Overall, it is relatively stagnant. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 6200-6500 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6700-7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw acetone, the upstream acetone market price rose first and then fell this week. The average price of acetone at the beginning of the week was 5550 yuan/ton, while the average price on Sunday was 5482.5 yuan/ton. The price has been reduced by 1.22%. This week, downstream demand for acetone was average, and the market atmosphere was relatively weak, resulting in a decline in prices.

In terms of propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has slightly increased this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 6243.25 yuan/ton, and the average price on Sunday is 6425.75 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.92%. Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that due to the low price of propylene and the active entry of downstream markets, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the inventory pressure of propylene enterprises has relatively decreased, leading to a slight increase in prices. It is expected that the propylene market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the upstream acetone market price of raw materials first rises and then falls, while the price of propylene increases, with average cost support. In addition, downstream demand is still average, and overall, the trading situation is relatively light. It is expected that the isopropanol market will temporarily stabilize and operate in the short term, with the possibility of a decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently dropped first and then increased. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7695.00 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 7481.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77%. The lowest price is on the 15th, at 7335.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.68%. The price has decreased by 33.68% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has dropped first and then increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and declining in the past two months, with prices dropping sharply this week and then rebounding slightly. After the significant decline in international crude oil prices, it also rebounded and increased. Styrene mainly fluctuated with cost fluctuations. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, and spot transactions are poor. Overall, the styrene market is at a low level.

In terms of raw materials, international oil prices first fell and then rose. On June 16th, the NYMEX crude oil futures contract 07 rose by 71.78 US dollars per barrel, or 1.64%; ICE oil futures contract 08 rose by $0.94 per barrel, or 1.24%, at 76.61. This week, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased, and the prices in the East China pure benzene market have fluctuated and fallen. Several new supply units are about to be put into operation, and businesses are still worried about oversupply in the future. Holders will ship at high prices, and the demand side will restock smoothly. The price increase momentum is insufficient. The spot transaction of pure benzene in East China was between 6100 and 6170 yuan/ton, while the transaction in Shandong was between 6050 and 6100 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream market, the three major downstream markets of styrene are basically stable. The average price of PS this week was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.85% compared to the same period last year. Weak follow-up on transactions, average transaction in the PS market, with little fluctuation in the market

The EPS market is stable this week, and according to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, the average price of ordinary materials is 9437.50 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not good, and it is expected that the market may be mainly volatile and weak in the short term.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been stable, and the upstream three materials of ABS have weakened, which has not provided sufficient support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has slowed down, and the market supply of goods has begun to decrease. The pressure on on-site inventory has eased, but the demand side support is limited, maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern overall. It is expected that the ABS market may form a weak supply and demand trend in the off-season, with limited decline.

The main trend of crude oil is a strong rebound, with low short-term styrene inventory. The Dragon Boat Festival holiday and the end of the month are about to come, and downstream may seek bargains to replenish, with decent support. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will fluctuate and rise mainly.

The price of O-Xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of O-Xylene was 8100 yuan/ton as of June 16, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of O-Xylene 8100 yuan/ton on June 9 last weekend; Compared to June 1st at the beginning of the month, prices have stabilized. The price of mixed xylene fell in shock, the downstream market of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, and the market of ortho benzene industry chain remained weak. The price of O-Xylene was temporarily stable this week.

This week, the raw material mixed xylene market fluctuated and fell

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of June 16, the price of mixed xylene was 7210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton or 2.04% compared to the price of 7360 yuan/ton on June 9 last weekend. The price of mixed xylene dropped sharply this week, the cost of raw materials dropped, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene market remained.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the market analysis system of phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of June 16, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% compared to the 7687.50 yuan/ton price of phthalic anhydride on May 31 last weekend. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped slightly and the price of plasticizer rose. The downstream demand is expected to recover. The upward momentum of O-Xylene market remains.

Future prospects

Analysts of O-Xylene data from the business agency believe that the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride fell in shock this week, but the decline slowed down. The industrial chain of O-Xylene remained weak, and the downward pressure on o-xylene remained. The price of plasticizer fluctuated and rose, the downstream market recovered, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene weakened. In the future, the decline in the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride has slowed down, and the downstream market of ortho benzene has rebounded. The downward pressure on the ortho benzene industry chain still exists, and the ortho benzene prices are temporarily stable in the future.