1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda increased in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 822 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 844 yuan/ton. The overall price increased by 2.68%, and the price decreased by 23.13% compared to the same period last year. On November 29th, the chlor alkali index was 1074 points, an increase of 9 points from yesterday, a decrease of 49.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 50.84% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has risen this month. At the end of the month, there was a slight increase in caustic soda prices in Shandong region. Currently, the prices of caustic soda in Shandong region have stabilized, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 810-850 yuan/ton, and the prices of caustic soda in Jiangsu region have stabilized, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 820-890 yuan/ton.

The price of liquid alkali has been fluctuating, and the supply has increased. The actual shipment of enterprises is average. Downstream alumina mainly purchases caustic soda according to demand, and the downstream support for caustic soda is average, resulting in a consolidation of caustic soda prices.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 47th week of 2023 (11.20-11.24), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (5.02%), baking soda (1.14%), and caustic soda flakes (0.27%); The main commodities falling are PVC (-0.90%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.79%.

Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, there has been an increase in supply, and downstream demand is mainly cautious, with more purchases made according to demand. It is expected that the trend will be mainly consolidation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.