Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 market was stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products was 5033 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products was 5033 yuan/ton at weekend, which was stable compared with last week.

II. Market Analysis

Product: The domestic market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 has been stable this week. At present, the quotation of the first-class chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that of the second-class chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5100 yuan/ton, that of the second-class chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is 5000-5300 yuan/ton, and that of the second-class chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is 4400-4800 yuan/ton.

International crude oil: Iran’s shooting down of U.S. military UAVs has sharply tightened the geographic situation, the release of easing signals from the global central bank, combined with the decline in U.S. crude oil stocks and the expected extension of OPEC production cuts, and the double-soaring international oil prices. WTI56.65 rose $2.89 per barrel and Brent 64.45 rose $2.63 per barrel. SC crude oil futures in China rose 0.5 to 425.7 yuan per barrel in 1908.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the analyst of chlorinated paraffin of business association, from the point of view of demand, the overall trading atmosphere of the current market is general, the domestic market demand for chlorinated paraffin is still acceptable, and the market holds a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable in the later period.

Price Trend

This week (6.10-6.14) the domestic price of 1_antimony ingot rose by 1.54% with the average price of

On June 14, the Sb Commodity Index was 55.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.09% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 17.41% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 36,000 yuan/ton and 99.8% at 37,500 yuan/ton. The price of antimony trioxide remains stable under the drive of antimony ingots, with limited transactions and mainly downstream wait-and-see.

Domestic market: This week, the major domestic antimony ingot manufacturers have increased the price of antimony ingots, the price of antimony ingots rose steadily by 1.54%, as of Friday, 2_high bismuth antimony ingots 37750 yuan/ton, 2_low bismuth antimony ingots 38750 yuan/ton, 1_antimony ingots 39250 yuan/ton, 0_antimony ingots 40250 yuan/ton. Transaction activity decreased, inquiries were less, wait-and-see was the main.

Non-ferrous industry: On Friday, non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, superimposed inflation was mild, Fed interest rate cut was expected to rise, US dollar was low at 96.451, and domestic top-level announced infrastructure financing incentive program. Although external uncertainties increased, confidence in expanding domestic demand remained unchanged, market sentiment was boosted, and basic metals generally recovered from the low level, but Sino-US economic and trade. Relations are still tense. The G20 summit held at the end of June was the key point. The market waited cautiously. Most of the domestic metals rebounded, blocked and fell back.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, the most sensitive market is the decision of the Federal Reserve Conference on Interest Rate. The market awaits the guidance of the US dollar. When domestic metals enter the June long order delivery period after monthly exchange, the activity of spot futures may be significantly improved. However, the metal items with the risk of squeezing may temporarily subside and return to rationality. If the antimony ingot manufacturers end the bidding situation due to capital pressure, the price of antimony ingot will certainly go down. It is expected that the price of antimony ingot will remain stable in the short term under the support of the bidding price of large factories.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The weekend average price is 2033.33 yuan/ton, which is flat compared with the early price of 2033.33 yuan/ton, down 7.15% from the same period last year.

2. Market analysis:

Product: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is limited and domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is less. However, due to the downstream civil explosion industry shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stocks, and the price trend in the field remains weak. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations ranged from 1900 to 2100 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection and the cancellation of gas limitation, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate in the downstream has decreased. In addition, the market price trend of raw material nitric acid and liquid ammonia in the upstream has remained stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1,560 yuan/ton by the end of the week, and this week’s price trend is temporarily stable; the price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia is rising slightly, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3,470 yuan/ton by the end of the week, and this week’s price trend is rising by 2.32%. The upstream raw material price trend has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate Temporary stability. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased, the market for nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains weak.

Industry: Recently, the market of ammonium nitrate is not good. The downstream explosion industry has stopped completely. However, the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material liquid ammonia market price rise, but the downstream demand is poor, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain low volatility in the later period.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, in January 2019, China imported 12.33 million tons of power coal (including bituminous coal and sub-bituminous coal, but not lignite, the same below), an increase of 570,000 tons, an increase of 4.85%, an increase of 8.33 million tons annually, an increase of 208.25%.

In January 2019, China imported 12.85 million tons of lignite, an increase of 2.65 million tons, an increase of 25.98%, and an increase of 10.1 million tons annually, an increase of 367.27%.

In January 2019, China imported 7.37 million tons of coking coal, an increase of 44.1% over the same period last year, and an increase of 4.24 million tons annually, an increase of 135.46%. In addition, in January 2019, China exported 190,000 tons of coking coal, an increase of 23.5% over the same period last year.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market first fell and then stabilized in January, and then rose. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 3533 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it fell to about 3183 yuan/ton, a drop of 9.91%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2850-2950/ton; in Shandong is about 3100-3200 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3150 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2650 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 3150-3250 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3250-3350 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton, which is 32.86% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: This month, due to the downstream acetate, vinyl acetate Market and other industries started to slump, the demand for acetic acid is weak, due to the approaching Spring Festival holidays, domestic acetic acid enterprises mostly to reduce storage pressure and low-cost shipments, the export market negotiations are flat, many factors lead to domestic acetic acid prices continue to fall; near the end of the month, due to long-term enterprise warehousing and some enterprise overhaul and other factors, acetic acid goods. Source tension and low inventory, combined with pre-holiday stocks and other factors, on-site quotations began to warm up. In terms of start-up, Longyu 400,000 tons/year plant in Henan Province was stopped short, Yima 250,000 tons/year plant in Henan Province was stopped short, and Yangtze 400,000 tons/year plant in Nanjing was repaired at the beginning of the month. So far, Soap 1.2 million tons/year plant in Jiangsu Province has reduced its load, and the overall start-up rate is about 86%.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the methanol market in the first ten days of this month under the drive of pre-season inventory, the overall warehousing rhythm is still acceptable, northwest, Shandong and central China mainland homeopathy in varying degrees slightly increased; but in the second ten days, with the high inventory of terminal raw materials in Shandong and Huazhong consumer markets, downstream enthusiasm gradually slowed down, methanol quoted 2188 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and methanol price 2212 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of acetate industry in downstream acetic acid is still relatively low this week. Traders are cautious in purchasing and wait-and-see attitude. PTA spot market is affected by enterprise overhaul and futures upstream. The price fluctuation in the month is 7.24%, up 14.51% compared with the same period last year.

International: This month, the North American acetic acid market was affected by demand, and continued to decline in the month, now about 600 US dollars/ton; the Asian acetic acid market was affected by the Chinese market, falling first and then rising in the month, and the current quotation is 390-440 US dollars/ton; the European acetic acid market fell sharply in the month, about 705 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, domestic acetic acid enterprises have low inventory and normal start-up of production. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market gradually enters the shutdown period, and the intentions of reserve before the Festival are strong, but the actual turnover is flat.

Acetic acid analysts of business associations expect that the acetic acid market will be mainly stable in the near future, with an upward trend.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 29, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2212 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market was running steadily.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic methanol market is running steadily, and the port is slightly down with futures. However, some operators have entered a semi-holiday state. In addition, the upstream stocks are basically over. New orders are limited and most of them are on the lookout. Shandong, North China and Huazhong in the Mainland are more stable, with partial contract execution being the main factor; the new price in Northwest China is not yet clear. It is worth mentioning that with the approaching of the Spring Festival holidays, transportation capacity has further tightened, and freight prices have also increased. This factor will once again suppress upstream factories and pay attention to the implementation of local new prices. In addition, part of the atmosphere in Sichuan and Chongqing has been restarted/planned to restart, and MTO in Zhejiang has also been restored in advance. However, due to the weakness of the current product fundamentals and the increasingly strong influence of holidays on the market trading atmosphere, the above factors should be paid close attention to the impact of the substantive fermentation of the market or postponed to the end of the festival.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: With the approaching of the Spring Festival, most of the local formaldehyde factories in Linyi have stopped working and withdrawn from the market, and the market turnover is light; the raw material methanol finishing has limited boost to formaldehyde, subject to the downstream downturn demand, Shandong formaldehyde light finishing mainly. Zibo and its surrounding prices are around 1150-1200 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is steadily rising. Most enterprises are short of stock, so the offer is firm. The downstream demand is gradually decreasing, and there are still some short-term stocks in some areas, but they will gradually decrease within a week. Long-distance transportation capacity gradually vacation, limited vehicles. Dimethyl ether: The enthusiasm of end users to enter the market gradually weakens, sellers continue to rise insufficiently, the overall price gradually tends to be rational, the recent domestic trend of dimethyl ether or will continue to collate horizontally.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, transportation: near the Spring Festival holidays, the transportation capacity situation in various parts of the country is becoming tighter, which will normally lead to relatively high freight rates and support the cost of arrival at consumer sites; olefins: the current price of methanol is at a low level, and the economic recovery of olefins is still possible, some shutdown projects are expected to strengthen, Xingxing 600,000 tons MTO has been put into operation, and the demand for raw material methanol Quantification or amplification. Attention should be paid to MTO start-up action. On the negative side, demand: near the Spring Festival holidays, most of the stocks in the middle and lower reaches have ended, some traders have withdrawn from the market one after another, the delivery atmosphere continues to weaken, and the new single negotiations are limited; ports: recent arrivals of ships are relatively concentrated, port inventory is still accumulating, need to pay close attention to the outflow situation; futures: the futures market has fallen sharply, and the focus of spot delivery of port paper has fallen to varying degrees. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that short-term domestic methanol market or narrow-band consolidation will dominate.

Price Trend
According to the sample data monitored by business associations, as of January 22, the average price of domestic BDO market was 10,087 yuan/ton, which was 9.47% lower than that of the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic BDO market is weak downward. The downstream demand is weak, the market fundamentals are general, the mindset of the traders is weak, some traders have closed the market, the atmosphere of market negotiations on the eve of the Spring Festival is light, and the follow-up is not good. It is expected that the short-term BDO market will still be dominated by weak consolidation. In terms of price, the mainstream offer in East China and North China is 9600-10000 yuan/ton, the real unit price is 9300-9500 yuan/ton, and the barreler negotiates 10300-10500 yuan/ton. South China offers 9600-10000 yuan/ton, real unit price 9300-9600 yuan/ton, barreler bargaining price 10300-10600 yuan/ton.

On the market side, the BDO market in North China declined slightly. The overall fluctuation of market supply and demand is not large, downstream purchasing intention is near the low end, high interest in receiving goods is limited, sellers’quotations are stable, merchants replenish goods on demand, and large orders are limited. The BDO market in East China declined narrowly. Active inquiries downstream less, more to maintain just need to take goods, factory shipments are not smooth to make more concessions, buy more to suppress, on-site high-end source shipments are not smooth, negotiations tend to be low. The market of BDO in South China is weak. Downstream still maintained on-demand delivery, on-site actual single volume is general, middlemen tend to low prices and fast delivery, negotiation interval continues to decline.

Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, the calcium carbide Market in Northeast China has a steady trend. The downstream enterprise purchases the first-class carbide and delivers it at the price of 3000-3025 yuan/ton. The arrival of goods in this area is still acceptable, most of them are ready to use and pick up, and they are more wait-and-see mindset.

3. Future Market Forecast

Just need to deal with the main; downstream inadequate start-up, low production and marketing. Business agency BDO analysts predict that short-term weak operation of the BDO market is dominant.

Russia’s energy minister Alexander Novak said Thursday that due to cold winter weather and geological conditions, Russia could not cut production too quickly, according to oil and gas news reports. Novak reiterated Moscow’s commitment to stick to the new OPEC + agreement and gradually reduce production.

Novak pointed out that Russia will strive to cut oil production faster.

A few days ago, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, said that Russia’s production cuts were “slower than I hoped”.

“Russia has started, slower than I hoped, but they have started, and I believe they will catch up and make a positive contribution to rebalancing the market as they did in 2017,” al-Falih told CNBC on Sunday.

Under the new OPEC+agreement, Russia will cut its crude oil production by 228,000 barrels a day within six months from January 1, 2019, and may assess it in April.

After agreeing in December last year, Novak said that Russian oil companies would cut production in the first quarter of 2019.

Novak has said that as part of the OPEC+New Agreement, Russia plans to cut oil production by 50,000 barrels to 60,000 barrels a day in January, and will not directly reduce production by 228,000 barrels at the beginning of the agreement. Novak said Russia has drafted a timetable to determine how much oil production Russia will cut monthly before reaching the OPEC/non-OPEC reduction ratio. Novak reiterated Moscow’s position that Russia’s output cuts would be gradual, just as the previous agreements reached between OPEC and Russia’s non-OPEC members.

Novak said on Friday that Russia has cut its output by about 30,000 barrels a day compared with the October cut benchmark and still intends to achieve 50,000 barrels a day by the end of this month.

Today, Novak told the Russian news agency Agence Novosti that he would meet with al-Falih at next week’s World Economic Forum in Davos to discuss joint projects, cooperation and the implementation of the OPEC+agreement.

The Indian phenol market closed stable on January 18, with CIF prices ranging from $1013 to $1016 per ton.

On January 18, the phenol Market in the U.S. Gulf closed steadily with the latest offer of $1088-1108 per ton FOB in the U.S. Gulf.