Aluminum fluoride market is stable

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable this week, and the market of aluminum fluoride is stable. As of August 20, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8666.67 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on August 13 last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%. The aluminum fluoride Market operated smoothly this week.

Aluminum ingot price high shock adjustment

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on August 19 was 112.30, down 1.49 points from yesterday, down 1.31% from the highest point 113.79 in the cycle (2021-08-18), and up 107.12% from the lowest point 54.22 on November 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). This week, the price of aluminum ingots first rose and then fell. On the 18th, the price of aluminum ingots reached a new high, and then the price of aluminum ingots fell. The price of aluminum ingots increased by less than 0.2% this week. Overall, the price of aluminum ingots this week was relatively stable. The aluminum ingot Market is adjusted at a high level, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride price is still weak.

Hydrofluoric acid maintained an upward trend this week

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose this week, but the overall hydrofluoric acid market was stable. The price increase of hydrofluoric acid in August was less than 0.8%, and the hydrofluoric acid market remained stable. Hydrofluoric acid market is stable, and the cost of aluminum fluoride is stable.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite in the upstream of aluminum fluoride industry chain are basically stable this week, the prices of aluminum ingots in the downstream hit a new high, but they are generally stable, and the aluminum fluoride industry chain is strong and stable. Generally speaking, the rising power of aluminum fluoride still exists, which stimulates the rise of aluminum fluoride price, but the rising support is limited, which is difficult to stimulate the rise of aluminum fluoride price. In the future, the aluminum fluoride market is strong and stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 13, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 14833 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 9 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 15233 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.63% within the week; Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 15100 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 267 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.77%.

This week, affected by the poor transaction of high-end price, the high-end price of n-butanol in domestic Shandong market has been declining since the beginning of the week. On the 9th of the week, the market price of n-butanol in domestic Shandong was around 15000-15400 yuan / ton. On the 13th of the weekend, the market price of n-butanol in domestic Shandong was around 14700-15100 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 300 yuan / ton. At present, After the price of n-butanol went down, the market inquiry atmosphere was good, the low-end price transaction was good, and the downstream butyl users filled their positions at a low price. Most of the purchases were just in need of replenishment. At present, the high-end price transaction in the market is still general. As of the 13th of the weekend, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 14833 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of this week, the average price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.63% during the week.

Upstream, in late July, the domestic propylene oxide price fell. In August, propylene oxide stopped falling and rose, and the market situation continued to rise. As of August 13, the reference price of propylene oxide was 17025 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.45% compared with August 1 (16300 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, after the price of n-butanol goes down, the goods taking situation in the downstream has improved, the transaction atmosphere has improved slightly, the inventory level of some factories has decreased, and the supply pressure has a certain support for the future market of n-butanol. Therefore, the n-butanol analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong can remain stable or slightly callback.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell first and then rose sharply this week. As of August 13, the nickel price rose sharply by 4.49%, the spot price was 148133.33 yuan / ton, up 4.49% from 141766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 15.61% from the beginning of the week and up 29.75% year-on-year. The nickel price has been falling weakly since August, until it rebounded from its low in recent two days, basically recovering its decline since August.

At the beginning of the week, as the US non farm data in July was better than market expectations, the Fed narrowed its expectations, resulting in a general decline in metal prices and a slight decline in nickel prices; Later, as the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, it will boost metal demand and drive the metal rebound.

Supply: in the early stage, the supply of ferronickel was limited due to the counterattack of the epidemic in Indonesia. In addition, due to the lack of transportation capacity, the price of ferronickel directly broke through the high point in 2017, forcing the continuous general rise of global nickel mines and strong cost support. At present, the overseas epidemic is serious, the epidemic in the Philippines and Indonesia affects export transportation, the return of raw materials is reduced, and the overall supply is still tight.

Downstream: in June, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 256000, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times. From January to June, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 2 times year-on-year, and the demand for new energy was at a high level; Downstream domestic stainless steel production and sales continued to rise, driving the demand for nickel. Low nickel inventory also supports nickel prices.

To sum up: Recently, the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which will boost metal demand. The overall supply and demand is in a tight pattern, which has strong support for nickel price. However, there is still some pressure to break through the previous high of 150000. It is expected that the short-term high shock pattern of nickel price will be dominated.

In the second week of August, the focus of Shandong propane market continued to move upward, with an obvious increase. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 4900.75 yuan / ton on August 8 and 4995.75 yuan / ton on August 13. The overall increase rate in the week was 1.94%, an increase of 5.21% compared with August 1.

As of August 13, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications August 13th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4750-4950 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4950-5000 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4953-5080 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4810-4910 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4900-5100 yuan / ton

In the second week of August, there was a certain deviation in the trend of propane Market in the South and North. The northern market pushed up obviously. The southern market stabilized first and then consolidated, and the price was loose. However, the overall price of domestic propane market was still at a relatively high level. This week, Shandong propane market rose significantly in the early part of the week, and the price fell slightly by the end of the week, and the mainstream price is still around 5000 yuan / ton. In the early part of the week, the market transaction atmosphere was good, the downstream concentrated on entering the market for replenishment, actively entering the market, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the inventory was mostly at a low level, the mentality was strong, and the price continued to rise. In the later stage, with the end of centralized replenishment, the propane price rose to a high level, the downstream delisting consumed inventory, and the market transaction atmosphere was lighter than that in the earlier stage. In addition, the international crude oil trend fell and the bad market mentality, the propane market price in Shandong fell slightly on Friday.

Saudi Aramco announced in August that both propylene and butane rose. Propane was 660 USD / T, up 40 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 655 USD / T, up 35 USD / T compared with the previous month.

At present, the strong port price has brought some support to the market, but the propane price has risen to a relatively high level, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, and the off-season has not passed, and the terminal demand is still weak, which has significantly restrained the rise of propane. The current trend of international crude oil is weak, which has brought some bad to the market. It is expected that there is no lack of possibility of small decline in the propane Market in the short term, We still need to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 2800.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 56.42% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market was temporarily stable this week, and the urea commodity index was 130.23 on August 13.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. Yangmei plain urea has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Open water chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this week: the price of LNG fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 5473.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5423.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.91%, a year-on-year increase of 119.57% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell. The quotation fell from 1097.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1057.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3,64%, up 89.26% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 4800.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 55.68% over the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 13366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.75%.

From the perspective of demand: the transaction is mainly just needed, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, the early maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the daily output has increased. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle and late August, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that although the maintenance of urea plant is still tight and the supply is tight, at present, the agricultural demand everywhere is declining, the industrial demand is general, the downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high-priced urea, and the future market price may fluctuate or fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on August 13 was 12233.33 yuan / ton, down 1.34% from the beginning of the week, 2.39% from the beginning of the month and 2.91% month on month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the raw material styrene fell on Monday, and the price stopped falling and rebounded in the middle of the week, but the cost support was insufficient. The hips market price continued to fall. The enterprise’s downward range was about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the downward range of benzene market price was small. At present, the demand in the off-season continues to be weak, and the actual transaction atmosphere is relatively flat. The cargo holders reduce prices and ship goods, while the transparent benzene market is supported by supply and has a certain resistance to decline. However, on the whole, the PS market is weak under the guidance of no obvious benefits. So far, the mainstream price of hips is mostly about 11900-12800 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene is mostly about 10550-11000 yuan / ton. The overall market price is down.

In the international crude oil market, on August 12, the international oil price fell slightly. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $69.09/barrel, down US $0.16, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $71.31/barrel, down US $0.13. Previously, the oil price rebounded sharply for two consecutive trading days due to the improvement of U.S. employment data and fuel demand. However, under the background of the accelerated spread of delta virus, the recovery of global oil demand is still dragged down, and the upward resistance of oil price is heavy.

In terms of raw materials, under the influence of the global epidemic, the prospect of crude oil demand is under pressure. Although pure benzene is supported, the profit point of styrene has been opened, and pure benzene can no longer guide the trend of styrene. The maintenance plan of styrene unit began to be implemented gradually in August, and the inventory fell slightly. The downstream will gradually transition to the peak season, and there are plans for new units to be put into operation. With the operating rate rising gradually, The demand for styrene will also increase slightly. On the whole, the supply and demand of styrene in the short term is better than expected, and the price of raw material pure benzene has stabilized, but there is still no strong support point for the rebound. It is expected that the trend of styrene in the short term will fluctuate and rebound.

3、 Future forecast

The business agency believes that the current off-season demand is poor, the actual transaction atmosphere is relatively light, the cost support is insufficient, and there is no obvious positive guidance in the market. It is expected that the hips market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Xinhua news agency, New York, August 10 (reporter Liu Yanan) – international oil prices rose significantly on the 10th.

As of the closing of the day, the futures price of light crude oil for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by US $1.81 to US $68.29 per barrel, or 2.72%; London Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.59, or 2.30%, to close at $70.63 a barrel.

Aluminum fluoride market picked up

Stimulated by the continuous rise in the price of aluminum ingots, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose in August. According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on August 9 was 8666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from 8500 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month.

High aluminum ingot price and strong operation

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on August 8 was 111.40, the same as yesterday, down 0.57% from the highest point of 112.04 in the cycle (2021-05-10), and up 105.46% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). Since June, the price of aluminum ingots has continued to fluctuate and rise, and the aluminum ingot Market has risen strongly at a high level. The aluminum ingot market continues to run strongly, stimulating the rise of aluminum fluoride price, which has a great driving force. In the future, the aluminum price is expected to continue to rise, but the rise is slowing down due to the impact of limited power and trans provincial transportation in the aluminum market.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that: stimulated by the continuous high operation of aluminum ingot prices, the driving force for the rise of aluminum fluoride prices has increased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose in August. In the future, the aluminum ingot market continues to rise, but the rise is expected to slow down, the rising power of aluminum fluoride in the future slows down, and the future price of aluminum fluoride is expected to stabilize.

Merck phase II has not been restarted. Lanshantun River and Xinye have been shut down for maintenance and Shanhua has replaced the catalyst. Due to the impact of rainstorm and epidemic situation, the transportation in some areas is slow, the supply of goods is tightened again, and the domestic BDO market continues to rise. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of July 30, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 24500 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 40.12% and a year-on-year increase of 217.69%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is around 25000-26000 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, Merck phase II has not been restarted. On the 25th, Lanshan Tunhe and Xinye were shut down for maintenance and Shanhua replaced the catalyst; In addition, due to the impact of rainstorm and epidemic situation in some areas, the transportation is slow, the supply of goods is tightened again, the reluctance of main manufacturers to sell is strengthened, the main contract orders are delivered, and the spot offer is rare. In terms of demand, there are differences in the ability of downstream industries to accept high price raw materials. Among them, the cost transmission of PTMEG spandex and gbl-nmp industrial chain is OK. However, some PBT plants are expected to reduce negatively due to raw materials or cost constraints. PBAT industry also has low enthusiasm for starting losses, delayed production of new capacity, increased resistance to high prices in the downstream, and the mentality of chasing up is slightly rational.

In terms of devices, the BDO capacity of Fuhua industry and trade (Meizhou Bay, Fujian) is 40000 t / A. the device is in normal operation. It was shut down for maintenance on July 7 and is planned to be restarted. BDO is mainly for its own use. There is no offer for external use, but it is subject to negotiation. The 100000 ton unit of Inner Mongolia Dongyuan Technology Co., Ltd. operates stably, and there is no spot quotation. It is planned to replace the catalyst from July 20 to 30.

Next week, the supply decreases, the demand side increases slightly, the on-site spot supply is tight, and the operators are reluctant to sell. BDO analysts of business society expect that the domestic BDO market will operate strongly.

In July, the overall focus of the domestic dimethyl ether Market shifted upward, dominated by favorable factors in the month, and the prices in the main production areas of Henan exceeded the mark of 3500 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3345.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 3512.50 yuan / ton on July 31. The overall increase in July was 5.01%. As of July 30, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% July 30th 3480-3780 yuan / ton

Hebei region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% July 30th 3620 yuan / ton

Henan region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% July 30th 3500-3530 yuan / ton

In July, the dimethyl ether Market as a whole can be divided into the first half of the month and the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, there were many horizontal adjustments and the fluctuation range was limited. The price rose significantly in the second half of the month, and the price rose as a whole in July. In the first half of the month, the market was mixed with good and bad. The introduction of CP in July at the beginning of the month led to the rise of civil gas. In addition, with the end of the party building day, transportation resumed, there was a certain replenishment demand in the downstream, and the price rose strongly, but the good time did not last long. In the later stage, the decline of international crude oil, the reduction of raw methanol and weak terminal demand all brought bad to the market. The price rise at the beginning of the month did not continue, The market fell. It was not until the second half of the month that the dimethyl ether Market in Henan rose significantly. The overhaul of some manufacturers in Henan, the main production area, brought some benefits to the market. In addition, the civil market of raw methanol and liquefied gas increased significantly in the second half of the month, the price difference of gas ether gradually opened, and the enthusiasm to enter the market under the mentality of buying up in the downstream was OK. The overall shipment of manufacturers was relatively smooth, the mentality was strong, and the price continued to rise, Shandong and Hebei regions were positive by the rise in the main production areas, following the behavior of the main producers. Although the dimethyl ether market fell briefly on the 25th, it returned to the upward trend again at the end of the month.

In terms of cost methanol market, in July, the methanol market was low first and then high, and the overall fluctuation range was limited. As of the 28th, the methanol market has been on the sidelines as a whole. The shipments of upstream enterprises are different, and the mentality of traders is unstable. Most underground tourism enterprises such as Lubei purchase on demand. The crude oil fluctuates, and the coal price is strong. The methanol market in major regions in China is dominated by consolidation, the downstream receiving is limited, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the shipments of production enterprises are stable, and the downstream purchasing is on demand. The spot transaction of methanol in the port area is light. Although delivery has been resumed in Taicang and Zhangjiagang reservoir areas, spot gas buying is still light because some expressways are still restricted.

At present, the price of dimethyl ether mostly rises above 3500 yuan / ton, the price is relatively high, and the off-season has not passed, the overall market demand has not improved significantly, it is still weak, and the market negative factors still exist. Although the civil market of raw methanol and liquefied gas did not continue to rise, the price was relatively strong, and CP still rose in August, which brought some support to the market. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will still rise in August, but the range may be limited.