In 2021, the market price of domestic cotton yarn fluctuated greatly and showed an upward trend. The market fluctuated from high to low, with two prominent peaks, 19750 yuan / ton in March and 19233 yuan / ton in October. By the end of the year, the benchmark price of cotton yarn market was 18266 yuan / ton, an increase of about 3000 yuan / ton or 19.91% over the beginning of the year.
According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) fluctuated greatly in 2021, with two waves of rising prices. From January to March, due to the sharp rise of raw materials in the upstream and strong demand in the downstream, the price of man-made cotton yarn increased from 15233 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 19750 yuan / ton, an increase of 4500 yuan / ton or nearly 30% over the beginning of the year. In late October, inflation was high and commodity prices generally rose. Driven by cotton yarn prices, the price of human cotton yarn quickly rose to 19233 yuan / ton. From November to December, relevant departments repeatedly stressed the importance of ensuring supply and price stability. In addition, the systemic risk was high, the price of bulk commodities fell sharply, the consumer terminal continued to lack power, and the price of human cotton yarn also continued to fall. By the end of the year, the price of cotton yarn was 18266 yuan / ton, an increase of about 3000 yuan / ton or 19.91% over the beginning of the year.
Price of raw viscose staple belt and cotton yarn
Comparison chart of price trend of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn in 2021
In 2021, the market price of domestic viscose staple fiber fluctuated greatly, showing an overall trend of two rises and two falls. The market fluctuated from high to low, with two prominent peaks respectively, 15860 in March and 14700 in October. By the end of the year, the benchmark price of viscose staple fiber market was 12180 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 11.64%.
| Thiourea |
In the first stage (from January to March), the price of domestic viscose staple fiber increased from 11000 yuan / ton to 15860 yuan / ton, up 44% from January to March, 2001, with strong downstream demand in late March. Since January 2021, viscose staple fiber has continued its upward trend at the end of 2020. When it returned to the market after the new year’s day, viscose staple fiber manufacturers have moved up the price and controlled the signing volume. Even if the downstream stocks are sufficient, it has not stopped the upward movement of viscose staple fiber. The specific reason is that the dissolved pulp held by the factory can only ensure its own production within two months, As for the purchase volume and price of dissolved pulp in March, the contract is limited temporarily, and the rising trend is also moderately stimulating some customers who just need to make up orders. After the Spring Festival (mid February), the viscose staple fiber market continued to rise sharply. In just January, the price focus of viscose staple fiber moved up again by 2500 yuan / ton. In late February, the price above 15000 yuan / ton continued to rise, and the strength has slowed down significantly.
In the second stage (October), the price of domestic viscose staple fiber increased significantly, from 12240 yuan / ton to 14700 yuan / ton, with an increase of 20.1% in October 2001, driven by the cotton price and the downward impact of the limited electricity operating rate.
In terms of output demand: the output and consumption of human cotton yarn in 2021 increased slightly compared with that in 2020, but lower than that in 2018 and 2019. It is preliminarily estimated that the output of human cotton yarn will be 2 million tons in 2021, an increase of 8.1% over 2020; The consumption is 1.841 million tons, an increase of 4.7% over 2020; The ending inventory is 120000 tons, an increase of 33.3% over 2020.
Human cotton yarn inventory: the rising market continued from January to March, and the finished product inventory of the enterprise was near 12 days, at a low level. From May to July, the turnover of human cotton yarn market was less than that in the early stage, and the enterprise inventory increased slowly. During this period, the human cotton yarn inventory reached 26.5 days, higher than the level in the same period in 2018 and 2019. Subsequently, many enterprises took the initiative to go to the warehouse, and the human cotton yarn inventory showed a downward trend. As of mid December, the human cotton yarn inventory was 17.67 days, at a medium level.
In terms of man-made cotton yarn load: the man-made cotton yarn load will run in the range of 40% – 65% in the next year, which is at a medium level as a whole. At the beginning of October, due to the sluggish demand side and the “double control” policy, the human cotton yarn load fell to around 40%, far lower than the level in the same period of previous years. After the power restriction was relaxed, the weak market continued at the demand side, and the human cotton yarn load recovered slowly. As of mid December, the human cotton yarn load was 50.83%, which was at a low level.
In terms of human cotton yarn profit: human cotton yarn basically remained profitable in 2021. In the first half of the year, although the immediate profit was negative, there was little loss in the actual purchase of low-cost raw materials. The production capacity of viscose staple fiber is large, so it is easier for spinning mills to reduce costs when preparing goods. The inventory of human cotton yarn finished products is in a medium position throughout the year, and there is little pressure in the sales link. After August, the spot profit of human cotton yarn became positive. As of mid December, the spot profit of human cotton yarn remained at about 1090 yuan / ton.
Annual comparison of cotton yarn prices
Future forecast:
In the domestic textile market, with the Spring Festival approaching, the transaction atmosphere in the human cotton yarn market has gradually weakened, the delivery speed has slowed down, and the inventory of textile enterprises is still at a relatively high level. With the completion of goods preparation by downstream customers, many weaving factories and cloth stores in coastal areas plan to have a holiday in mid January. Some yarn factories can arrange orders for individual popular yarn varieties after the Spring Festival, and most manufacturers have insufficient orders. At present, the market orders are in the closing stage, the stock market around New Year’s Day is basically over, and the textile factory holiday plans are released one after another.
In the short term, the price focus of human cotton yarn is relatively stable, and it will be stable before the Spring Festival. In the medium and long term, the consumer end deposit is expected to decline, and it is predicted that the price focus of human cotton yarn will move downward in 2022.
| http://www.thiourea.net |