Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 2800.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 56.42% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market was temporarily stable this week, and the urea commodity index was 130.23 on August 13.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. Yangmei plain urea has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Open water chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this week: the price of LNG fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 5473.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5423.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.91%, a year-on-year increase of 119.57% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell. The quotation fell from 1097.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1057.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3,64%, up 89.26% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 4800.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 55.68% over the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 13366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.75%.

From the perspective of demand: the transaction is mainly just needed, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, the early maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the daily output has increased. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle and late August, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that although the maintenance of urea plant is still tight and the supply is tight, at present, the agricultural demand everywhere is declining, the industrial demand is general, the downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high-priced urea, and the future market price may fluctuate or fall slightly.