1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, aniline prices stabilized and consolidated after the fall this week. On May 28, the price in Shandong was 9600-9700 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9900-10000 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong was 9100-9200 yuan / ton on June 4; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9200-9300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 5.82% lower than last week, 16.03% higher than the beginning of the year, and 106.77% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene fell first and then rose this week. Driven by the strength of crude oil and styrene, the trading atmosphere of pure benzene market improved, and the inventory of local refining decreased, which led to the continuous rise of pure benzene price. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 300 yuan / ton to 7900 yuan / ton. On Sunday (June 6), the price of pure benzene was 7800-8000 yuan / ton (average price was 7910 yuan / ton), which was 390 yuan / ton higher than that of last week, or 5.19%; It was 116.12% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid this week was flat compared with last week. On Friday (June 4), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2233.33 yuan / ton, up 55.81% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline plant load reduction or shutdown for maintenance in some enterprises resulted in reduced market supply and higher cost, which supported the price of aniline. However, the downstream load reduction operation, weak demand for aniline follow-up, aniline fell within the week after consolidation.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, although the recent rebound of crude oil and styrene prices boosted the pure benzene market. However, as the tension of pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States gradually eased, the external market may continue to fall. Downstream styrene is expected to enter the traditional off-season, with weak demand. Overall, the trend of short-term pure benzene is strong, but the price may still fall in the later period.

Individual units in the site are operating at reduced load, and the market supply is reduced, which is expected to offset the negative effect brought by the weak downstream procurement. Overall, short-term consolidation is mainly wait-and-see. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.