According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid dropped slightly this week. By the end of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid was 8112.5 yuan/ton, 1.37% lower than the price of 8225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, unchanged year-on-year.

 

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Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

 

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is around 60%. The supply of goods is normal, and the situation of phthalic anhydride delivery is poor. The market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

 

Cost end: price trend of o-benzene market declines

 

This week, the price trend of domestic ortho benzene declined. By the end of the week, the price of ortho benzene was 8500 yuan/ton, down 3.41% from the price of 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the crude oil price fell sharply during the holiday, the pressure on the decline of ortho xylene cost increased, the demand for ortho xylene was weak, and the price of ortho xylene in the external market fell. The decline of ortho xylene price had a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride market fell slightly.

 

On the demand side: DOP market trend is rising, with on-demand procurement being the main focus

 

The price trend of downstream DOP market is rising, with a sharp rise of 10.72% this week. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10750 yuan/ton, and domestic DOP enterprises are starting stable. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand, and the mainstream price of DOP is 10700-10900 yuan/ton. The main reason for the sharp rise of DOP price is the sharp rise of the price of raw material isooctanol. On the whole, the demand of plasticizer industry is poor, and the price of phthalic anhydride market has declined slightly due to this.

 

In the future, the price trend of o-xylene has declined slightly in the short term, but the demand of downstream plasticizer industry has not improved significantly. The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the effect is general. It is expected that the price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market in the later period will be mainly volatile.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene showed a trend of first rising and then falling this month. On April 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7570 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price was 7830 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.43% compared to the beginning of the month.

 

2、 Analysis and Review

 

In terms of crude oil, on April 2nd, OPEC+member countries suddenly announced a collective reduction in oil production. On the 6th, OPEC+member countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, and Russia announced that they would further reduce production. Starting from May, OPEC+will further reduce production by about 1.15 million barrels per day compared to April; Many countries have announced the implementation of voluntary oil production cuts, and global crude oil demand remains growing. The possibility of a significant drop in oil prices is low, and oil prices may fluctuate among the main players; The additional reduction in OPEC+production will exacerbate the oil supply shortage in the second half of 2023, and the situation of crude oil supply exceeding demand is approaching.

 

In terms of economy, in the second half of the month, US economic data showed that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again. The Fed’s rate hike is nearing its end, and the US economy is inevitably entering a recession. The rise of the US dollar and investors’ concerns about the economic outlook have led to pressure on oil prices; There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. US anti inflation concerns have increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in May, leading to a strengthening of the US dollar and rising market concerns, putting pressure on oil prices.

 

The crude oil price fluctuated and showed an inverted “V” trend in April. On April 28th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in the trading company was 74.30 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -0.09% compared to the beginning of this month (74.37 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.72 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -1.12% compared to the beginning of this month (78.60 US dollars per barrel).

 

On the downstream side, domestic PX prices rose slightly in the early stages of this month, remained stable in the middle, and fell at the end of the month. On April 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price rose to 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27%. In the short term, the downstream market support for px gradually weakens, and the market lacks support.

 

In terms of OX, the price of OX continued to show a ladder like upward trend this month. On April 1st, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, and on April 28th, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.33% compared to the beginning of the month. The cost of mixed xylene upstream of OX is stabilizing; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market is weakening. There is still downward pressure, and the adjacent benzene market will temporarily stabilize in the future.

 

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fluctuated and fluctuated this month. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8412.6 yuan/ton. On April 28th, the price was 8648.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 236 yuan/ton or 2.81% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market still lacks demand support, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the sales pressure of main units at the end of the month is high, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, there is uncertainty in the outlook for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, with the strengthening of the US dollar and an increase in market risk aversion. Optimistic Chinese economic data and a positive outlook for energy demand provide support for oil prices, waiting for new guidance in May; As the weather warms up and the May Day holiday approaches, people’s willingness to travel and activity radius increase, and gasoline demand gradually increases. However, downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support, and gasoline demand is unstable. It is expected that participants in the refined oil market will operate cautiously after the holiday. Affected by fundamentals, the mixed xylene market is operating weakly, and it is expected that the mixed xylene industry will mainly consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.

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