441 silicon price trend

On June 15, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) rose. According to business news agency data, on June 15, the average price of domestic silicon metal (441) market was 14141.67 yuan / ton, up 0.59% from 14058.33 yuan / ton before the Dragon Boat Festival, and 0.89% from last week.

On the 15th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port area is 14300-14400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14350 yuan / ton; In Tianjin port area, the price range of silicon metal is 14300-14400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14350 yuan / ton; The price range of ᦇ 441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 13900-14000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13950 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Sichuan is 13900-14000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13950 yuan / ton; Fujian ᦇ 441 metal trading range 13300-13400 yuan / ton, the average price of 13350 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Shanghai is 14800-15000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14900 yuan / ton.

The output of safety inspection in silicon plant decreased slightly

A fire broke out in Xinjiang’s organosilicon plant, resulting in the reduction of organosilicon production capacity. In addition, metal silicon plants in Xinjiang may face parking safety inspection. It is expected that the resumption of production will be in early July. Some markets are anxious about purchasing, which has promoted market transactions, and some silicon plants slightly increased their quotations.

forecast

Analysts from business news agency believe that from the perspective of demand, the parking security inspection of silicone factories in Xinjiang is less likely to resume production in June, so the demand for metal silicon will be reduced; From the perspective of supply, it is reported that the silicon metal inventory in Huangpu port, Kunming port and Tianjin port last week was 25000 / T, a decrease of 2000 / T on a week to month basis. However, with the resumption of production of some silicon factories in Yunnan, the silicon metal inventory is expected to pick up slightly. To sum up, in the situation of two-way weakening of supply and demand, the spot price of silicon metal will mainly fluctuate in the range in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell this week, and the quotation fell from 2730.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2700.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 1.10%, up 61.03% compared with the same period last year. Overall, urea fell this week, with the urea commodity index of 125.58 on June 11.

Lower upstream support, lower demand and tight supply end

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell this week. Urea in yangcoal plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2700 yuan / ton this weekend, which was down 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; No quotation for urea in open water chemical industry this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream urea products in this week generally saw a big decline: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 3633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3546.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 2.39%, up 41.68% year on year compared with the same period last year; The price of power coal fell slightly, and the price fell from 936.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 931.25 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.53%, up 67.72% year on year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, and the quotation rose from 4350.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4366.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 0.38%, up 47.19% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine downstream urea rose sharply, from 9666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10333.33 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 6.90%.

From the aspect of demand: agricultural demand starts to slow down, and industrial demand is steadily followed up; Downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plant started higher, new orders of enterprises were slightly reduced, melamine was produced again, and demand increased further. From the aspect of supply: the unit maintenance of urea enterprises is still in the near future, with an average operating rate of about 75%, a daily production of 160000 tons, and a tight supply end. Overall, the support for urea cost is weakened this week, downstream demand is slowing, urea supply is tight and supply is short of demand.

The price of the later market is still strong, focusing on the dynamic printing mark

In mid June, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly in a small fluctuation. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand has declined, the industrial demand has risen slightly, and the urea supply is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will be in short supply in the short term, but the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was 1828.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1811.67 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 0.91%, and the price rose 35.88% compared with the same period last year. Coking coal prices are weak this week.

The coking coal commodity index on June 10 was 133.70, down 1.23 points from yesterday, down 0.91% from 134.93 (2021-06-09), the highest point in the cycle, and 197.71% higher than the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to September 1, 2012 to present)

According to the business agency, the supply side, the production area, the recent frequent accidents on the mine, the environmental protection inspection efforts are not reduced, the overall supply of coking coal is still tight, and Mongolia has low customs clearance due to repeated epidemic.

Demand: the price of coke market is mainly stable temporarily, coking enterprises have production limit expectations, and have no impact at present, and the expected supply in the future market is tight. On the aspect of steel plant, the coke inventory is rising at present, and affected by the expected supply of coke after the market is tight, the purchasing strength in the near future is increased, and the coke inventory in the plant has been significantly improved compared with that in the earlier stage. At present, the purchasing power of steel plant is increased. Under the support of high coking coal price in the upstream of coke, the coking enterprise mentality is improved. It is expected that the coke price will still be mainly in weak operation in the short term.

Analysts of coking coal in business society think that the overall supply of coal is relatively tight due to the impact of environmental protection inspection. Mongolia is less open to traffic affected by the epidemic, and the coal source at the port is still tight. The coke inventory in the downstream plant has recovered. At present, the purchasing power of the steel plant is increased. Under the support of the high price of coke coal in the upstream of coke, the coking enterprise mentality is improved, and it is expected that the coke price will still be mainly subject to weak operation in the short term. Coke has a strong attitude towards coke coal. In a comprehensive view, the short-term coking coal is mainly operated in narrow amplitude, and the downstream market demand is seen.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, aniline prices stabilized and consolidated after the fall this week. On May 28, the price in Shandong was 9600-9700 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9900-10000 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong was 9100-9200 yuan / ton on June 4; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9200-9300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 5.82% lower than last week, 16.03% higher than the beginning of the year, and 106.77% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene fell first and then rose this week. Driven by the strength of crude oil and styrene, the trading atmosphere of pure benzene market improved, and the inventory of local refining decreased, which led to the continuous rise of pure benzene price. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 300 yuan / ton to 7900 yuan / ton. On Sunday (June 6), the price of pure benzene was 7800-8000 yuan / ton (average price was 7910 yuan / ton), which was 390 yuan / ton higher than that of last week, or 5.19%; It was 116.12% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid this week was flat compared with last week. On Friday (June 4), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2233.33 yuan / ton, up 55.81% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline plant load reduction or shutdown for maintenance in some enterprises resulted in reduced market supply and higher cost, which supported the price of aniline. However, the downstream load reduction operation, weak demand for aniline follow-up, aniline fell within the week after consolidation.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, although the recent rebound of crude oil and styrene prices boosted the pure benzene market. However, as the tension of pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States gradually eased, the external market may continue to fall. Downstream styrene is expected to enter the traditional off-season, with weak demand. Overall, the trend of short-term pure benzene is strong, but the price may still fall in the later period.

Individual units in the site are operating at reduced load, and the market supply is reduced, which is expected to offset the negative effect brought by the weak downstream procurement. Overall, short-term consolidation is mainly wait-and-see. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises as of June 7 was 14300 yuan / ton, down 8.53% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, 25.65% lower than that on May 7, and 24.60% year-on-year in three months.

In May, the propylene oxide market fell, and the market continued to decline in June. In recent years, the overall operating rate of propylene oxide is high, and the supply side is abundant, but the demand side is not followed up enough. In the process of price decline, the downstream risk aversion mood is heavy, the market is more waiting and waiting, the pace of investment slows down, and the focus of market negotiation gradually decreases. At present, the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market in Shandong Province is about 13500-13700 yuan / ton, while that in East China is about 13700-13900 yuan / ton.

The upstream propylene price rise in Shandong Province decreased by June 4. According to the price chart of the business agency, the propylene price in Shandong Province rose continuously in May, then fell in a shock and fell, and the end of the month continued to decline. The price continued to decline in early June. After a substantial increase of 150-250 yuan / ton on the 3rd, today, the price continued to rise slightly, with the range of 50 yuan / ton. The current market transaction rose to 7850-8250 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of about 8050 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of propylene glycol was 16000.00 on June 4, which was the same as that of June 1; Downstream soft foam polyether, as of June 7, Shandong soft foam polyether market was arranged in horizontal market, with general market investment atmosphere. On July 7, the mainstream quotation of ordinary soft foam polyether market in Shandong was 13800-14000 yuan / ton.

According to the analysts of propylene oxide of business agency, the current cost side impact is limited, and the factory has a strong intention to stop falling. However, the downstream purchasing mentality is cautious and the basic aspect of market supply and demand is still weak. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide Market will be weak and stable operation as the main, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance for specific trends.

The domestic BDO market continued to be weak and the spot talks were light. At present, except that Kaixiang plant has not produced any products after shutdown for maintenance and Tianye restart, other plants have stable operation and abundant supply. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of June 7, the average producer price of domestic BDO was 19600 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 25.76% and a year-on-year increase of 137.29%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is 17800-18200 yuan / ton, while the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 18000-18200 yuan / ton.

The domestic BDO market continued to be weak and the spot talks were light. At present, except that Kaixiang plant has not produced any products after shutdown for maintenance and Tianye restart, other plants have stable operation and abundant supply. Demand side: the main downstream PTMEG started at a high level, PBT, TPU and other loads increased slightly, and multi-dimensional held contract procurement. Most terminals are still resistant to high price raw materials. Therefore, BDO’s downstream multi industry offers are lowered for promotion, and the profit mentality drives the purchase of raw materials to lower the price seriously. Traders trading enthusiasm is not high, bearish atmosphere is strong, let profit shipping mentality mainstream, negotiation focus down.

At present, there is no good support from the supply and demand side. The industry is mostly bearish, and small orders need to be closed. The game between supply and demand continued, and the focus of negotiation continued to decline. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market is in a downturn in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell first and then rose this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in Shandong Province first dropped from 14666.67 yuan / ton on May 31 to 14066.67 yuan / ton on May 31, a sharp increase of 4.09%, and then rose to 14633.33 yuan / ton on June 4, an increase of 4.03%, a year-on-year increase of 115.72%. On the whole, the market of isooctanol fell slightly this week, and there was an upward trend in the single weekend. The commodity index of isooctanol on June 4 was 109.80.

Maintenance is later than expected, supply is still insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong’s mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of ISO octanol this weekend was 14600 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Lihuayi’s offer of ISO octanol this weekend is 14600 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 14700 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. The maintenance of ISO octanol plant is later than expected, the overall operation rate of ISO octanol industry is insufficient, and the spot supply of ISO octanol is in short supply.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol rose sharply this week, with the quoted price rising from 7781.27 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8034.91 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.26%, and a year-on-year increase of 16.34%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose sharply, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, DOP factory price high consolidation this week. DOP quotation fell from 12700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12650.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.39%, up 77.34% over the same period of last year. The downstream DOP price was high, the downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for octanol procurement, and the demand for isooctanol was strong.

Short supply and bullish outlook

In early June, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong may rise slightly. Overall, the recent resumption of production of ISO octanol plant is later than expected, the overall operation rate of ISO octanol industry is insufficient, the spot supply of ISO octanol is in short supply, and the downstream market is good, the demand is strong, and the supply exceeds the demand. As a result, isooctanol analysts from business news agency believe that the domestic market of isooctanol may rise slightly in early June.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the market of dichloromethane rose this week (5.31-6.4). As of June 4, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 4006 yuan / ton, up 4.52% from 3833 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the overall operation rate of domestic methane chloride plants increased slightly. According to the business news agency, this week, the Jinling Dongying plant was in high load operation, the Dongyue methane chloride plant was in full load operation, the Jinmao methane chloride plant was in shutdown, and about 90% of the projects were started in Luxi, Jiangsu Liwen methane chloride overhaul was completed, and Jiangxi Liwen started at full load, The construction of Meilan Juhua is about 70%.

The price of raw material liquid chlorine is at a high level, the price of methanol is slightly down, and the cost side is still supported. According to the business news agency, as of June 4, the price of methanol was 2672 yuan / ton, down 1.87% from 2622 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; As of June 4, the main factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was about 2100 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business community methane chloride data analysts believe that after a sharp fall in prices in the early stage, there is a rebound demand for dichloromethane. In addition, the downstream demand still has some support, and the price of raw material liquid chlorine also returns to a high level. On the whole, the price of dichloromethane will remain high and firm in the short term.

1、 Chart of the price trend of nitric acid Market

Price curve of nitric acid

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas at the beginning of this week was 2250 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2233 yuan / ton, down 0.74%.

2、 Market analysis

On May 25, Anhui Jinhe quoted 2100 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton lower than the previous one; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd., the price of concentrated nitric acid is 2200 yuan / ton, and that of dilute nitric acid is 960 yuan / ton, and the price of concentrated nitric acid is the same as that of the last time; Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid quoted 2400 yuan / ton, the price was the same as the last time; Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 2100 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which is the same as the last one. The nitrate Market is generally shipped.

Upstream liquid ammonia, Shandong region this week, the price of liquid ammonia producers rose 3.36%. Downstream aniline, week aniline market continued to decline, prices fell broadly. On May 21, Shandong price was 10700-11000 yuan / ton, Nanjing aniline price was 11100 yuan / ton, May 28, Shandong price was 9600-9700 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9900-10000 yuan / T / T, with the average price falling 11.25% from last week and 9.32% lower than that at the beginning of the month. TDI’s East China market rose 1.43 percent this week.

3、 Future forecast

The nitrate Market is generally shipped, and business agency nitric acid analysts expect nitric acid to decline slightly.

Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong fell this week, from 233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 226.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.85%. Overall, hydrochloric acid market fell this week, with hydrochloric acid commodity index at 59.65 on May 28.

quotations analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation is temporarily stable, the overall market is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; At the end of the week, the price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wenshui was 230 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid at the weekend is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 150 yuan / ton over the weekend, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the market prices of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream are high, which has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole fell slightly this week, hydrochloric acid shipment is still a big problem.

Future forecast

Upstream liquid chlorine Market in the near future general, downstream silica, ammonium chloride market high consolidation. Business community analysts believe that hydrochloric acid in the recent small shocks.