This week, the lead market (7.5-7.9) rose and then fell. The average price of domestic market was 15866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 15741.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 0.79%.

On July 10, the lead commodity index was 95.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.51% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.37% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In the first half of the week, affected by the decline of LME lead inventory, Lunzhou lead mainly went up. In the second half of the week, the US dollar index rebounded and Lunzhou lead went down. Overall, LME’s lead inventory fell by 9950 tons this week. Shanghai lead rose first and then fell this week, rising to 16000 yuan / ton and then fell under pressure.

This week, the spot lead market trend close to Shanghai lead trend, the overall high after falling. Affected by the tight supply of upstream lead concentrate, the overall improvement of operation rate is limited. The downstream battery consumption is still weak, the overall consumption is low, and the lead ingot inventory is on the high side.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 27th week of 2021 (7.5-7.9), there were 16 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose month on month, of which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were praseodymium neodymium oxide (8.54%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (8.20%) and neodymium oxide (6.17%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were titanium concentrate (- 2.29%), silver (- 2.02%) and aluminum (- 1.26%). This week, the average rise or fall was 1.61%, and most of the nonferrous metal market prices rose.

The business association predicted that the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and the price of lead ingot will still fluctuate when the consumption side has not improved.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell slightly this week, with the market at 7804 yuan / T at the beginning of the week, and the average weekend price of 7796 yuan / T, or 0.1%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the propylene market this week showed no temperature and no fire, the price change was not large, and the price of individual manufacturers was adjusted slightly. By the end of the week, the mainstream domestic market quotation was 7700-7800 yuan / ton, the low-end price was 7200 yuan / ton, and the downstream was purchased on demand. The market investment was still available and the price was strong.

The risk of oil supply side is prominent this week and the price has fallen sharply. It was supported by the commercial crude oil inventory data released by the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Thursday, and the price rebounded. The crude oil price fell 2.95% this week, which has a great impact on the propene’s profit and air.

This week, PP prices were slightly lower, and consumption was low due to the influence of traditional demand off-season, with a decline of 0.97% in the week.

Acrylic acid prices continued to rise this week. Due to the overhaul of some enterprises, the spot supply was tight, downstream on demand procurement, the market trading and investment rhythm was active, and the price rose steadily. The increase was 2.59% in the week, which supported propylene.

Epichlorohydrin prices rose this week, with a 4.05% increase in the week as part of the decoration and maintenance was stopped and repaired, and the supply reduction supported the market.

In a word, the downstream of propylene shows signs of recovery, and the favorable demand side supports the propylene market to a certain extent.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from chemical branch of business society think: long short game, uncertainty of crude oil market, pay close attention to the future market changes. If the cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the downstream demand supports, propylene is expected to fluctuate upward in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 995 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the week was about 965 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 3.02% and a year-on-year increase of 66.24%. On July 4, the steam coal commodity index was 117.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 162.80% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

In terms of origin: after the end of July 1, the production capacity of limited coal enterprises has been gradually restored, the coal inventory has risen, and the prices of some coal mines have declined. However, considering the impact of environmental protection inspection, some coal mine production capacity has not been fully released.

Downstream power plants: due to the impact of summer peak, the daily consumption of power plants is high, and the coal inventory of power plants remains low. Data show that as of June 25, the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 1.91 million tons, and the available days of coal storage was 13.5 days, at a low level. The power plant still needs to replenish the storage. However, there are not many port resources available for sale, and most terminals hold a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by policies, port prices are declining.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on June 24, the national coal price rose steadily in mid June. The specific price changes of various kinds of coal are as follows: the price of ordinary mixed coal (mixed coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with calorific value of 4500 kcal) is 709 yuan / ton, up 10.9 yuan / ton or 1.6% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahua (better quality blended coal with calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 799 yuan / ton, up 10.9 yuan / ton or 1.4% over the previous period. In addition, in mid June, the national price of coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2626.8 yuan / ton, down 15.1 yuan / ton, or 0.6%, compared with the previous period..

Business analysts believe: origin: after the end of “July 1″, the production capacity of limited coal enterprises has been restored, coal inventory has risen, and some coal mine prices have fallen. However, considering the impact of environmental protection inspection, some coal mine production capacity has not been fully released. Due to the impact of summer peak, the daily consumption of the power plant is high, and the coal inventory of the power plant remains low. The power plant still needs to replenish the storage. However, there are not many port resources available for sale, and most terminals hold a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by policies, port prices are declining. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price is mainly weak in the later period, and the specific situation is the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of June 30, 2021, the domestic reference price of ethylene propylene diene monomer Jihua 4045 remained at 26000.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of the previous working day, the same as the price of last Tuesday, and the price decreased by 1.64% compared with May 30.

2、 Market analysis

On Wednesday, the EPDM production plant was in normal operation, the ex factory price was slightly adjusted without big change, the traders had good inventory and stable quotation, and the price of Jihua 4045 ethylene propylene rubber was stable at 26000.00 yuan / ton; Sinopec Mitsui 4045m, 3092pm, 3062em, 3110m and other specifications of ethylene propylene rubber market quotation is stable 25500.00 yuan / ton; The demand of downstream users is not strong, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The overall market price showed a downward trend of shock.

upper reaches:

According to the price chart of the business club, after the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong propylene market was put into operation, and the market turnover rose to 7600 ~ 7900 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price around 7900 yuan / ton. Mainstream manufacturers offer unchanged, low-end prices increased. Propylene market is expected to rise in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the external market of ethylene has risen recently, the demand of the whole external market of ethylene is good, the purchasing atmosphere is active, the transaction is good, and the focus of ethylene market is gradually moving up. The market is optimistic about the crude oil market, and business community data analysts expect that the external price of ethylene will rise next.

3、 Future forecast

According to EPDM analysts, the driving force of upstream propylene cost is not strong, and the ethylene market is on the rise, but the impact on the price of EPDM is weak due to the weak demand of downstream users; EPDM market trading atmosphere is weak, manufacturers and users are in a stalemate and wait-and-see stage. It is expected that EPDM market will fluctuate slightly and stabilize in the near future.

DOP price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the cost of DOP rebounded this week, and the price of DOP rose. As of June 28, the DOP price was 13033.33 yuan / ton, up 1.82% from 12800.00 yuan / ton on June 21 at the beginning of last week. DOP prices stopped falling this week.

Raw material prices rebound

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded this week, with the price of isooctanol rising by 1.1%. The cost of DOP rose this week, and the price of DOP rose again. The rising power of DOP increased and the downward pressure weakened.

From the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose this week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose by 1.2%, the cost of DOP rose, the price of DOP rose again, and the rising power of DOP increased.

PVC market stops falling

According to the monitoring data from the business community, the PVC market stopped falling this week, and the PVC price rebounded slightly. During the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, it had a certain impact on the construction and transportation. PVC manufacturers prepared goods in advance, PVC prices rebounded briefly, DOP demand was general, and the support for DOP rise was insufficient, and the downward pressure of DOP still remained in the future.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that this week, octanol price rebounded, phthalic anhydride price rebounded, DOP cost fluctuated, DOP price rebounded; On the demand side, the demand for DOP is general, and downstream customers prepare goods in advance during 7.1, so the demand rises briefly. Generally speaking, the prices of raw materials rise in the short term and the cost of DOP rises. However, the support for the rise of raw materials is insufficient and the future rise is weak. The downstream demand of DOP is general and the downward pressure of DOP is large. It is expected that the price of DOP will stabilize in the future.

At the beginning of the week, the price of magnesium was stable at a high level. On the 19th, the mainstream price of magnesium was 19666.67 yuan / ton in cash including tax; On the 25th, the price of magnesium was 19333.33 yuan / ton, down 1.69%. As of the 25th, the specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19500-19600 yuan / ton; In Ningxia, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19500-19600 yuan / ton; In Taiyuan area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19600-19700 yuan / ton; In Wenxi area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19600-19700 yuan / ton.

Market analysis of this week

Due to the sharp rise of magnesium price last week, magnesium price gradually fell this week until the magnesium market stopped falling and stabilized on Friday. The supply and demand side is in a stalemate. Although the supply side is supported by the high cost of raw materials and the shortage of coal supply, some coal plants avoid the magnesium price rise due to maintenance; After the price of magnesium on the demand side rises, the willingness of downstream replenishment weakens, and with the trend of magnesium price rising and falling, the acceptance of downstream customers is low, the purchase is more cautious, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mood.

Short term forecast

Although the cost side support is strong, in view of the weak market transactions, the downstream customers are affected by the falling sentiment, and most of the purchases are just need replenishment, so the cautious wait-and-see mentality is obvious. Business analysts believe that under the pressure of weakening demand, the market will be under pressure in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6500 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 58.54%. The price trend of domestic PX market was temporarily stable this week.

In recent years, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably, the Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, and the Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. However, some overseas plants are still under maintenance, and the domestic price of p-xylene remains high due to the impact. The recent rise in the international crude oil closing price has affected the PX external price trend. As of the 24th, the closing prices in Asia were 896-898 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 914-916 US dollars / ton CFR China. The recent change in the operating rate of PX units in Asia was small. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia was more than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia was general, and the PX external price rose, The price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil continued to rise this week, with the international oil price rising. The settlement price of the main contract in WTI crude oil futures market of the United States was at US $73.30/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $74.81/barrel. The oil price continued to consolidate at a high level. At present, the price has reached a high point in the past three years, mainly due to the support of US commercial crude oil inventory data and the delay of Iranian oil’s return to the market, Supported by favorable factors, international crude oil prices continue to rise. This week, crude oil prices continued to rise, which is good for domestic petrochemical products prices, and the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

The price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches rose this week. As of the 25th, the average price of PTA market was 4950-5000 yuan / ton, up 4.31% this week. The international crude oil price rises, and the cost support is obvious. The PTA plant has been running stably in the near future, and the supply side has performed normally. This week, the PTA operation rate is about 84%. The PTA delivery situation is general, and the on-site delivery situation is general. However, the pressure of new production capacity is still huge, and the price is lack of action on the trend. Polyester production and marketing has little change, the international epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, but the follow-up orders of the textile industry are weak. The profits of domestic textile industry are concentrated in the spinning process. The lower reaches of the textile industry do not have a high acceptance of the fabric price rise, and the price transmission is not smooth. There is still downward pressure on the yarn price, which may further affect the price performance of the raw material end. Recently, the domestic PTA market price continues to rise, the downstream market is general, and the price trend of p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

Business community PX analyst Chen Ling believes that the current strong performance of the cost side, short-term crude oil prices have a supporting role, coupled with the downstream PTA and textile market trend has risen, it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will rise later.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of iron and lithium phosphate, the domestic power-based superior products, was 50000.00 yuan / ton by June 22, with stable market operation as the main part. In recent years, lithium iron phosphate was narrow and the downstream was just purchasing, and the atmosphere of negotiation was flat.

The market of lithium iron phosphate is mainly stable, the price is stable, supply and demand are balanced, the upstream lithium carbonate operates smoothly, the rising trend is slowing down, the main supply contract customers are the main customers, and the number of new customers is limited. At present, the main quotation range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 48-5200 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage lithium phosphate is RMB 42-46000 / ton, The price range of upstream battery grade lithium carbonate is between 87-91000 yuan / ton, and that of industrial lithium carbonate is 8-85000 yuan / ton. The upstream lithium carbonate operates stably and the trend is relatively stable.

On June 21, the chemical industry index was 1041 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 3.97% from 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 74.08% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Analysts of the business agency think that lithium iron phosphate will operate smoothly and fluctuate in a limited range in the short term（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the trend of toluene first fell and then rose this week. On June 13, the price of toluene was 5801 yuan / ton; On this Sunday (June 20), the price was 5801 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.51% compared with last week; It was up 63.41% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil continued to rise in the week, with good external news support, but domestic toluene market demand remained weak, and prices remained weak and volatile. In terms of external market, as of June 18, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 730 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton or 0.54% from June 11.

In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand, and the overall trend of international oil prices is upward. However, the strong US dollar exchange rate during the week depressed oil prices.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, with domestic goods at 13666.67 yuan / ton, up 7.89% over the beginning of the year and 18.84% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6500 yuan / ton, up 58.54% year on year. As of June 18, closing prices in Asia were 846-848 USD / T FOB Korea and 866-868 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, supporting the price of toluene; The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. Overall, toluene remained weak in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, this week, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market was stable, with the average market price stable at 7927 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business club, Shandong propylene market was reorganized and operated this week after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the prices of individual manufacturers were slightly adjusted. Now the market turnover has risen to 7600 ~ 7900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7900 yuan / ton. The market operates smoothly, the quotations of mainstream manufacturers remain unchanged, and the low-end prices rise.

Recently, the international crude oil market rose slightly, with a price increase of 0.23%, which has limited effect on propylene market.

PP prices rose this week, or 0.8%, with little impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid prices rose by 3.88% this week, supporting propylene.

This week, the price of propylene oxide remained unchanged, with little impact on the propylene market.

Epichlorohydrin rose slightly this week, or 0.51%, with limited impact on propylene.

The domestic n-butanol price remained stable this week.

This week, the price of isooctanol fell more, with a weekly decline of 4.59%, which had a negative impact on the propylene market.

Isopropanol prices rose this week, or 2.9%, with limited impact on propylene.

This week, the phenol Market Price in East China went down, with a weekly decline of 4.27%, which had a small inhibitory effect on propylene.

This week, the quotation of acetone manufacturers in East China market continued to decline, with a decrease of 2.13%, which also had a greater effect on propylene suppression.

Acrylonitrile market price continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 5.17%, boosting the propylene market.

On the whole, the upstream and downstream products of propylene showed moderate performance without significant rise and fall. In terms of the lower reaches, the rising products increased and the lower reaches showed signs of warming up.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: the supply and demand of propylene market is stable at present. With the improvement of downstream demand, the propylene market is expected to rise in the near future.