Domestic cobalt price wants to rise

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the cobalt Market “wants to rise and rest” in July, the cobalt price fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall cobalt price rose slightly. As of July 30, the cobalt price was 376333.34 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from the cobalt price of 366000 yuan / ton on July 1. Why is there a “cobalt price difficult to rise” market in the cobalt spot market? Let’s interpret the recent cobalt Market from the two aspects of supply and demand!

There are still risks in the steady rise of demand

On July 28, according to the report released by International Data Corporation (IDC), in the first half of 2021, the overall domestic market shipped 164 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. In the second quarter of 2021, the domestic smartphone market shipped about 78.1 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%. The growth driving force of the market in the first half of the year came entirely from the better market environment in the first quarter compared with the epidemic period in 2020. With the advent of the second quarter, the existing products failed to fully stimulate the replacement demand of most users, and the terminal flow rate continued to be lower than expected. Many head manufacturers had to slow down the pace of shipment in the second quarter. The mobile phone market generally rose in the first half of the year, the demand of cobalt market increased, the shipment decreased in the second quarter, the demand of cobalt market is expected to decline, the expected rise in the future will slow down, and the support for the rise of cobalt price in the future is insufficient.

According to the survey results released by SNE research on July 29, the cumulative installed capacity of global electric vehicle batteries in the first half of this year was 114.1gwh, a year-on-year increase of 153.7%. According to the data previously released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in the first half of the year, China’s power battery loading volume accumulated 52.5gwh, a year-on-year increase of 200.3%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary battery is 30.2gwh, accounting for 57.5% of the total loading volume, with a cumulative increase of 139.0% year-on-year; The cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery was 22.2gwh, accounting for 42.3% of the total loading volume, with a year-on-year increase of 368.5%. In the first half of the year, the sharp rise in the loading volume of power batteries stimulated the rise in the demand of cobalt city and the rise in the price of cobalt. However, it can be seen from the increase in the loading volume of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries that the increase in the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was much greater than that of ternary batteries. Cobalt market demand rose less than expected, and the future cobalt price may be difficult to support the continuous rise.

On July 16, honeycomb energy held the first mass production offline ceremony of cobalt free battery in Jiangsu. This means that the world’s first cobalt free battery has officially achieved mass production, and honeycomb energy is actively promoting the expansion and construction of cobalt free battery. According to the plan, the cobalt free battery will be mass offline in its Ma’anshan base before the end of the year. The production of cobalt free batteries is bound to lead to a decline in the demand of cobalt market, which is bad for the cobalt market. There are great risks in the rise of cobalt market.

Shortage risk in sufficient supply

According to the latest data of the customs network, in June 2021, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 7700 tons of metal tons, an increase of 6% month on month and 76% year-on-year. From January to June 2021, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 47000 tons of metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The import of cobalt raw materials has increased greatly, and the supply of cobalt city is sufficient. Due to the port outage and railway outage caused by the riots in South Africa in July, the domestic enterprises received the notice of cobalt raw material delay, the expected shipping schedule delay ranged from 1 to 2 weeks, and the import of cobalt raw materials was expected to decrease in August. There is a short-term shortage risk in cobalt market.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business society, believes that the entry of hot money in cobalt market will decrease in 2021, and the cobalt market will more reflect the supply-demand relationship and expectation of cobalt market. On the demand side, the demand of cobalt market has maintained a stable rise recently, but the rise of cobalt market may be less than expected, which is difficult to support the continuous and substantial rise of cobalt price. Moreover, the introduction of cobalt free battery is bound to affect the demand of future cobalt Market and weaken the driving force of cobalt price rise; On the supply side, the import of cobalt raw materials has increased greatly, and the spot supply of cobalt market is sufficient. However, the turmoil in South Africa has increased the risk of short-term shortage of cobalt raw material transportation. It is expected that the risk of supply shortage of cobalt market will increase in August. Overall, the growth on the demand side was less than expected, and the rising power of cobalt market still existed, but it was difficult to support the continuous rise of cobalt price, and the cobalt price fluctuated and adjusted. There is a shortage risk in the future cobalt market, and the cobalt price is expected to rise; However, the cobalt market demand with relatively slow growth does not support the sharp rise of cobalt price. It is expected that the cobalt price will rise violently in August, but the cobalt price exceeding 400000 has great resistance, and 430000 is the short-term cobalt price ceiling.