Domestic cobalt prices stabilized after rising this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, affected by the sharp rise of international cobalt price, the domestic cobalt price continued to rise this week. After that, the cobalt price stabilized and the rise of cobalt Market slowed down. As of September 27, the cobalt price was 381200.00 yuan / ton, up 1.71% from 374800.00 yuan / ton on September 20 at the beginning of last week.

International cobalt prices rose sharply this week

time Category specification minimum price Rise and fall Highest price Rise and fall Company

September 17, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point four five zero point two twenty-five zero point two five USD / lb

September 17, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point four five zero point two twenty-five zero point two five USD / lb

September 20, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point six zero point one five twenty-five 0 USD / lb

September 20, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point five zero point zero five twenty-five 0 USD / lb

September 21, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point nine five zero point three five twenty-five point two five zero point two five USD / lb

September 21, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point eight zero point three twenty-five point two five zero point two five USD / lb

September 22, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-four point nine five 0 twenty-five point two five 0 USD / lb

September 22, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-four point nine zero point one twenty-five point two five 0 USD / lb

September 23, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-five point one zero point one five twenty-five point five zero point two five USD / lb

September 23, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-five point one zero point two twenty-five point five zero point two five USD / lb

September 24, 2021 Standard grade cobalt twenty-five point two zero point one twenty-five point six zero point one USD / lb

September 24, 2021 Alloy grade cobalt twenty-five point two zero point one twenty-five point six zero point one USD / lb

From the data released by LME market, it can be seen that after the closing price of LME cobalt rose sharply this week, the cobalt price stabilized, the international cobalt Market stabilized, and the positive impact on the domestic cobalt Market slowed down. From the trend of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that MB cobalt price continued to rise this week, but the increase slowed down, and the international cobalt market rose, which was good for the domestic cobalt market, but the positive momentum weakened.

Influence of double control power rationing on cobalt Market

Recently, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Anhui, Yunnan, Shandong, Liaoning and other places have introduced power restriction measures. The production of iron and steel, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, textile and other industries in many places has been affected to a certain extent, and production has been reduced or stopped one after another. The national double control large-scale power rationing has a great impact on the production of key energy consuming enterprises such as smelting, and non-ferrous smelting enterprises stop production and reduce production more.

The “power restriction order” in the three northeastern provinces and other places has spread from factories to residents’ lives. According to media reports, recently, many places such as Shenbei New District, Shenyang, Liaoning Province had a sudden “switch off and power failure”, which once led to traffic paralysis and affected residents’ lives. The power shortage has even affected residents’ lives. The growth of electric vehicles is bound to exacerbate the power shortage and increase the pressure on the power grid. In the case of such serious power rationing, it will discourage consumers from buying electric vehicles to a certain extent.

New energy vehicles with soaring costs

Since 2021, the price of ternary materials has increased by 52%, the price of negative electrode materials has increased by 70%, the price of electrolyte has increased by 151%, the raw material cost of lithium battery has increased significantly, and the battery cost has basically increased by 17000 yuan! The price of the whole vehicle has increased by at least 5%. Under the dual influence of the continuous rise of raw material costs and the expansion of market share of new energy vehicle enterprises at this stage, in order to control costs, more vehicle enterprises choose to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. In August 2021, China’s lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 56.9% of the output of power batteries, which has greatly exceeded that of ternary batteries. The fundamental reason may be that the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries can be reduced by 65% – 72% compared with ternary batteries. With the implementation of the “production restriction order”, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery also has an upward trend, and the supply of lithium iron phosphate has long been in an emergency. In the future, the proportion of ternary battery market is expected to slow down, and the demand for ternary battery is expected to rise slowly.

Market overview and future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that stimulated by the rise in international cobalt prices, domestic cobalt prices rose this week. Affected by double control power and production restriction, the domestic cobalt salt price continues to rise, and the rise of cobalt salt price drives the rise of metal cobalt price. However, in the future, with the intensification of power restriction, the commencement of non-ferrous smelting industry decreases, the output of cobalt market is expected to decline, and the power restriction intensifies or affects the sales of new energy vehicles. With the continuous rise of lithium iron phosphate price, the decline in the proportion of ternary battery market slows down, the demand for ternary battery is expected to rise slowly in the future, and the rising support of cobalt market still exists. Overall, the cobalt market has risen recently. It is expected that the cobalt price will stabilize before the festival, and the long-term cobalt price will rise slowly.

This week (September 20-26), the price of domestic liquid ammonia continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of liquid ammonia increased by 4.76% this week. As of Sunday, the price of liquid ammonia has increased by 26.92% since September. At present, the market has recovered all the decline in August, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has reached 4700-4800 yuan / ton, mainly due to the reduction of supply caused by enterprise maintenance, the boost of high cost, and the expectation of peak season demand for agrochemical fertilizer.

On the supply side, the market supply remains tight. The units in northwest, Hubei, Hebei, Shandong and other main producing areas were shut down for maintenance or started with load reduction, the market supply continued to decline, the domestic urea output decreased significantly, and the price began to rise continuously. However, some ammonia enterprises switched to urea, which exacerbated the contradiction of shortage of liquid ammonia supply, and the price of liquid ammonia also rose moderately, Especially from the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, manufacturers in Shandong, Hebei and other regions continuously raised their ex factory prices, and the market was stable at the weekend.

On the cost side, the coal price continued to rise, and the cost prompted the market price of liquid ammonia to rise. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of power coal at the beginning of the week was about 1407.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1525 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 8.35% and a year-on-year increase of 155.98%. Affected by the environmental protection policy and the recent dual control policy of energy consumption, some coal mines are still in the shutdown stage, and the overall supply of power coal is tight. In addition, the peak period of civil power has passed, but the downstream demand is still hot, and the available coal storage days of the power plant are at a low level. The power plant just needs to purchase and passively accepts the high price. (see figure above)

On the demand side, under the background of frequent maintenance by downstream urea manufacturers and significant decline in daily average urea output, large plants in Xinjiang and Shandong have been overhauled or reduced load this week, affecting the daily output of more than 4000 tons. The shortage of supply has led to the soaring price of urea. According to the monitoring of business society, urea rose by 9.27% this week. Although there is no fundamental improvement in downstream demand, the shortage of goods in the market leads to tight terminal procurement. The domestic compound fertilizer market is generally stable, but the “ensuring supply and stabilizing price” has affected the market mentality to a certain extent. The rise of urea price slowed down over the weekend, and the market rigidity is expected to be mild before the festival.

In terms of export, the import and export quarantine policy with high market attention has an obvious impact on the market. The change of China’s export inspection mode has an adverse impact on China’s exporters’ enthusiasm for purchasing ports, and the export increment in the later stage may be restrained.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the short-term market is still good. Although the recent resumption of work by enterprises will bring new output, it is difficult to reach the level of the same period last year in the short term, and the downstream procurement is expected to rise near the peak season of Wheat Fertilizer in autumn, which will make the price of liquid ammonia easy to rise but difficult to fall. At the same time, it is difficult for the market to rise sharply under the background of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price”, In particular, liquid ammonia has reached an all-time high, and the market is expected to maintain a high and narrow fluctuation in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2375 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2837.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 19.47%, an increase of 73.72% over the same period last year. On September 23, the commodity index of light soda ash was 130.13, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 106.06% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash is strong this week. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2800-3000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is relatively strong, and the mainstream price of light soda ash is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term high price of soda ash is dominated. Affected by the dual control policy, there are many manufacturers’ parking, the overall supply of soda ash is reduced, and the delivery of early orders is mainly. According to the data, the overall operating rate of soda ash this week was 72.5%, which was 79.33% last week, and the operating rate decreased. Soda ash inventory is small, and some enterprises do not pick up goods smoothly.

In terms of upstream raw salt, affected by the dual control policy, the price rises and the market trading is OK. Demand: the price of glass spot market is weak. In Shahe, North China, production and sales are weak, inventories rise, manufacturers mainly ship at stable prices, and traders ship flexibly. The trend in East China is weak, with many limited films, obvious wait-and-see mood in the downstream and declining focus. The glass market in Central China has a downward focus, lower prices and general shipments. Glass shipments in South China are generally stable, with manufacturers shipping at stable prices, and the downstream just needs to purchase. Forecast: Glass spot market is weak in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 37th week of 2021 (9.13-9.17), there were 4 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (37.16%), PVC (2.66%) and calcium carbide (1.23%); The average rise and fall this week was 8.32%.

Business analysts believe that the domestic soda ash price is strong, the market is running, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. However, the downstream glass price is still in conflict with the high price soda ash, the glass price is weak, and the soda ash is mostly purchased on demand. There is still demand in the market as a whole, but the supply is small and the supply is difficult to find. In addition, considering the impact of policies, soda ash is still strong in the short term, mainly market operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

Market price trend chart of nitric acid

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in China was 3100 yuan / ton on September 23 and 3090 yuan / ton on September 16, an increase of 0.32%.

On September 22, Anhui Jinhe offered 3000 yuan / ton, an increase of 50 yuan / ton over last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 3100 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than last week. The production is limited in the factory and is ready for maintenance; The ex factory quotation of Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical concentrated nitric acid is 2650 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week. The nitric acid plant is shut down for maintenance; Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 3500 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, an increase of 500 yuan / ton compared with last week. Anhui Aodeli concentrated nitric acid quoted 3050 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. The goods in nitric acid market are generally sold, industrial power is limited, the supply of nitric acid may be tight, and the price of nitric acid may rise.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (September 22): 24666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 22, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid remained stable and the price of methane oxide was corrected, but the cost support was still in place, the start-up of refrigerant enterprises was still low, the on-site supply was tight, there was no sign of correction, and the market continued to operate strongly.

It is expected that R22 price is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

DOP prices fell all the way this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell this week, and the DOP market fluctuated and fell. On September 10, the DOP price was 14575.00 yuan / ton, down 1.10% from 14737.50 yuan / ton on September 1. DOP prices fell in September, and the overall DOP market was weak.

DOP Market Overview

DOP prices were weak this week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.10%. Downstream users had limited intention to receive orders, weak demand side support, insufficient enthusiasm of end users to enter the market, and strong market wait-and-see sentiment. This week’s drop in DOP prices led to a decline in theoretical profits. Theoretical profits in some regions were negative, DOP profits were upside down, and there was limited room for future decline. This week, the operating rate of DOP enterprises was about 50%, and the operating rate rebounded slightly.

Downstream market recovery

As can be seen from the PVC price trend chart, the PVC market continued to rise this week, up 3.8%, which was good for the DOP market. With the advent of the traditional peak domestic demand season “golden nine and silver ten”, the PVC market has improved, but due to multiple factors, the downstream demand side has not improved greatly, the demand performance of DOP is relatively cold, and the PVC market is rising, which is good for the DOP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that PVC prices rose this week, and the downstream market recovered, driving the resumption of DOP enterprises, the operating rate of DOP enterprises rose and DOP prices fell; In terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride increased, the overall DOP cost stabilized, and the negative impact on DOP in terms of raw materials was limited. Although the downstream demand has warmed up, the overall demand is relatively cold, which has limited benefits for DOP, and the DOP price approaches the cost line, with limited room for decline. In the future, the rebound pressure of DOP bottomed out has increased. However, due to the great resistance of downstream to high price DOP, the support for DOP rise is insufficient. Overall, DOP prices tend to be stable and the upward momentum increases. It is expected that DOP prices will be strong and stable in the future.

This week (9.6-9.10), the market of nitrile rubber was stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 10, the price of nitrile rubber was 23900 yuan / ton, mainly stable.

The ex factory price of domestic nitrile rubber was partially adjusted. According to the monitoring of business society, Lanzhou Petrochemical reported 20800 yuan / ton of nitrile n41e as of September 10; 3305e reported 21900 yuan / ton, stable; Ningbo shunze 65000 T / a unit operates normally. The ex factory price of nitrile 3355 / 3365 is 22300 yuan / ton, increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 3380 is 23000 yuan / ton, which is stable. Some manufacturers control orders, the market supply is tight, traders are reluctant to sell, and the market offer is firm. This week, the downstream rubber products industry started stably, and the demand for nitrile rubber was rigidly supported.

The raw material butadiene fell sharply, and the cost was short of the impact of nitrile rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 10, the price of butadiene was 9117 yuan / ton, down 6.27% from 9727 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that the cost side is bad, but the market supply is relatively tight. In addition, there is still rigid support for demand. It is expected that the high level of NBR market will be strong in the short term.

The decline of domestic butadiene market slowed down slightly this week. As the market fell to a low level, the downstream just needed to enter the market for replenishment. In addition, some factories replenished before the holiday, which formed a certain support for the northern spot market.

According to the sample data monitored by the business society, from September 6 to 13, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 9727 yuan / ton to 9091 yuan / ton, with a price decrease of 6.54% during the cycle, a price decrease of 15.02% month on month and a price increase of 51.68% year-on-year. In terms of price, the delivery price in central Shandong is 9400-9500 yuan / ton, and the negotiation range of self delivery price in East China is about 9000-9100 yuan / ton.

The decline rate of domestic butadiene market slowed down. In terms of supply, the export of goods was blocked, and the inventory rose slowly. In terms of demand, the downstream replenishment before the festival and the restart of Shandong Weite and Qilu Petrochemical units are expected. The external market fell sharply, the supply pressure dragged the supplier’s prices down continuously to stimulate transactions, and the focus of the market continued to decline.

In terms of enterprises, the listed price of butadiene of Sinopec’s sales companies has been reduced by 900 yuan / ton, and the executive price was 9100 yuan / ton as of September 13. Shandong Wanhua 50000 T / a butadiene extraction unit has been shut down for maintenance since September 1. The 120000 T / a butadiene extraction unit of North Huajin was shut down for maintenance on July 14 and restarted on September 1.

In terms of external market: as of September 10, the external price of butadiene in Asia fell: FOB Korea closed at US $945-955 / T, down US $300 / T; CFR China closed at US $995-1005 / ton, down US $270 / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe fell: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1875-1885 / T, down US $20 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1545-1555 euros / ton, down 30 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Korea 945-955 USD / ton – $300 / ton

Asia CFR China USD 995-1005 / ton – $270 / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam USD 1875-1885 / ton – USD 20 / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1545-1555 euros / ton – 30 euros / ton

Rigid demand has limited support for the domestic spot market, and the external market has fallen sharply, dragging down the mentality of merchants. The supply side of the global market is under pressure. Under the influence of the imbalance between supply and demand, butadiene analysts of business society expect that there is still some downward space for the domestic butadiene market in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose, some prices of the domestic praseodymium neodymium rare earth market rose, and the price of the heavy rare earth market rose. According to the rare earth sector index of the business society, the rare earth index was 587 points on September 12, the same as yesterday, down 41.30% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), It is 116.61% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the prices of rare earth in China have risen recently, the prices of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have risen recently, and the rare earth market has risen. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide is rising, and the price trend of metal neodymium, metal praseodymium neodymium and metal praseodymium is temporarily stable. As of September 13, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth is 622500 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.22% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 640000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.4% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 602500 yuan / ton, with a rise of 0.84% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 740000 yuan / ton, which is flat this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 815000 yuan / ton, and the price trend is stable this week; The price of neodymium was 765000 yuan / ton. The price trend was stable this week, some prices rose, and the light rare earth market recovered.

The trend of products in the domestic rare earth market is rising, the structural change of supply and demand is small, and the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal. In the near future, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may be steadily increased, and the supply rigidity is optimized. In addition, with the implementation of the new energy efficiency standards, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners for domestic household appliances, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side is relatively normal. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxide is rising. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on waiting and watching, and the procurement is more cautious. The main rare earth raw materials of high-performance Nd-Fe-B are light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are OK. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”) released the latest production and sales data. In August, 307000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in China, with a month on month increase of 19.8% and a year-on-year increase of 193%. The cumulative sales from January to August were 1.704 million. Recently, the downstream demand is OK, and the market price of light rare earths has increased slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China has increased. As of the 13th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.6 million yuan / ton, and the price trend this week increased by 1.17%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.59 million yuan / ton, the price trend is up 1.97%, the price of metal dysprosium is 3.37 million yuan / ton, and the price is up 1.51% this week. The price of domestic terbium is the president of doctor mountain, the price of domestic terbium oxide is 8.25 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 10.4 million yuan / ton. The transaction in the domestic rare earth market is normal, and the leading magnetic material factory purchases actively, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market price rise slightly. Recently, the political situation in Myanmar is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the domestic supply is tight, and the risk of production reduction of separation enterprises using Myanmar mines in the south is increased. Affected by this, the domestic heavy rare earth market price rises.

The recent notice on carrying out industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021 emphasizes the comprehensive sorting and investigation of enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, nonferrous metal smelting, petrochemical industry and building materials, and the special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product, so as to finally realize the full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In addition, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of industry and information technology, said at the video conference on industrial policies and regulations of industry and information system last week that efforts should be made to optimize the development environment of industrial enterprises, accelerate the legislation of telecommunications law, and promote the promulgation of rare earth regulations as soon as possible. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products is OK, the downstream demand is normal recently, and the price of domestic rare earth market has warmed up.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply has started normally, the on-site transactions have increased recently, and the goods are actively prepared. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that the market price of rare earth may rise in the later stage.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to rise this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.12% during the week.

In September, the high price of domestic soda ash sulfur continued to rise, and the raw material cost continued to rise. Supported by the cost, manufacturers successively raised the ex factory price in early September, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price to continue to rise. This week, the domestic market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 2500-2800 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise continues to be low, the overall supply of sodium pyrosulfite market is tight, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

In August, the price of domestic soda ash and sulfur continued to rise sharply, with soda ash rising by 8.19% and sulfur rising by 16.6%. In September, the price of domestic soda ash continued to rise. As of September 10, the price of soda ash rose again by 2.16%, the price of sulfur rose by 1.56%, and the high raw material cost continued to rise. The cost will further support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Business analysts believe that under the dual positive support of cost and demand, it is expected that the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will continue to be strong in the short term.