1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 72576.67 yuan / ton, up 2.02% from 71136.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 20.35% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 5 and fell by 6 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is strong.

In terms of supply and demand: the mining end disturbs investors’ concerns about the tightening of global copper inventories. At present, there is no obvious driving force for the fundamentals, the overall supply and demand are weak, and the price fluctuates in the range. At present, the macro situation has improved, the domestic interest rate has been cut, the special debt has increased significantly, and the LME copper inventory has remained stable at a low level.

To sum up: with the resumption of enterprises after the festival, the downstream demand increases slowly. Tight supply supports copper prices. The short-term copper price shock is expected to be strong.

Zinc prices rose sharply on February 10

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose sharply on February 10, and the zinc market rose. On February 10, the price of zinc was 25620 yuan / ton, up from 25196 yuan / ton on February 9 of the previous trading day. Zinc market picks up.

Key points of analysis

After the festival, the zinc market rose, the willingness to replenish stocks in the downstream increased, the construction of downstream galvanizing enterprises was low, and the demand of zinc market warmed up; High electricity price supports smelting cost and spot zinc price. London zinc night market prices rose sharply, which was good for the domestic zinc market.

Future forecast

Demand returned to cost support, and the zinc price fluctuated and rose in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of February 9, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 17000 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 6, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 15633 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 1367 yuan / ton, or 8.74%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that during the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic propylene glycol market kept stable, the downstream demand was basically suspended, and the on-site trading performance was calm. After the Spring Festival, the domestic propylene glycol units resumed operation one after another. The overall operating rate of the site was low, the supply pressure was small, the downstream started to improve after the festival, the demand side performed well, the replenishment atmosphere after the festival was good, and the trend of raw material propylene oxide after the festival was also strong. With the dual support of raw materials and demand, the domestic propylene glycol market rose significantly for the first time after the festival on the 9th, The biggest increase in a single day is 1600 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong is around 16600-17700 yuan / ton. Some factories are closed and do not report, and the center of gravity of propylene glycol is strong and runs upward.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, after the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic propylene oxide market generally rose. After the festival, the downstream demand side returned to work and production one after another. In the middle and lower reaches, just in need of replenishment was maintained, and the on-site trading atmosphere was acceptable. According to the data monitoring of business society, the reference price of propylene oxide was 11366.67 yuan / ton on February 9, up 0.59% compared with February 1 (11300 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

Future forecast: at present, after the Spring Festival, the propylene glycol factory has a compact order arrangement and the market is improving. The propylene glycol Data Engineer of the business society believes that the propylene glycol market is mostly high and strong in the short term. The specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the basic changes of supply and demand, the commencement of various units and the follow-up of new orders of the factory.

Product Name: n-propanol

Latest price (February 7): 8033 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on February 7, the overall domestic n-propanol market moved downward slightly. The average ex factory price of n-propanol was 8033 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 67 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. The decline was 0.82%. On the 7th, the domestic market of n-propanol in Shandong was weak. After the festival, some cargo holders slightly reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by 100-200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 7300-7700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was around 9000-9500 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: after the Spring Festival, the domestic downstream demand for n-propanol has not been significantly opened, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8460 yuan / ton on January 27, up 140 yuan / ton compared with 8320 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 1.68% during the month and 19.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In January, the PVC market fluctuated downward, the price rose sharply in the middle of the month, remained basically stable in the latter ten days, and the overall trend in the month was roughly in the shape of √ by the end of the year. This month, the PVC market was mainly driven by the favorable interest rate cut of the central bank, crude oil and coal. The disk surface was strong, and the equipment in some areas was shut down for maintenance. There was some support at the supply side. The PVC market broke the continuous falling market for more than a month, and the futures price continued to rise above 8800, boosting the offer of the spot market. In the first week after returning from New Year’s day, the disk was strong, PVC opened and rose slightly, superimposing the problems of Zhonggu mining equipment in Inner Mongolia, so as to strengthen the confidence of cargo holders in offering. In the second week, PVC futures rebounded strongly, driving the spot market to actively follow the rise. The enterprise’s offer rose about 100-200 yuan / ton within the week, and the market rose. In the third week, the rise did not stop, and the transaction atmosphere was good. The pre-sale of PVC enterprises before the festival was good. Most of them had completed their tasks and made firm offers. Near the end of the month, the Spring Festival is approaching, the transportation capacity is limited, and the downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode. The demand is reduced. There is basically no market in the market, and the price is mainly sorted out.

By the end of the month, the price of raw calcium carbide had fallen to around 4150-4450 yuan / ton. The quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8100-8800 yuan / ton. The price of pvc5 calcium carbide delivered in Tianjin was 8600-8650 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou was 8750-8850 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Changzhou was 8650-8800 yuan / ton, Market prices all over the country have risen.

According to the weekly rise and fall from November 1, 2021 to January 23, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic PVC mainly fell during the cycle, with the largest decline of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price has fluctuated little, with the range of less than 3%. It is now falling and then rising in January.

region workmanship 1 / 27 (yuan / ton) 12 / 31 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 8650-8850 8300-8500 + 350/+350 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 8750-8900 8400-8650 + 350/+250 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 8550-8700 8150-8400 + 400/+300 Deliver

southwest Calcium carbide method 8600-8800 8350-8500 + 250/+300 Deliver

For the external price, Formosa Plastics announced the PVC quotation in February, which was reduced by 70-100 US dollars / ton, FOB Taiwan was reduced by 70 US dollars / ton, CIF China was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, CIF India was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, and CIF Southeast Asia was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton.

International crude oil prices continued to rise on January 26. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $87.35/barrel, up US $1.75 or 2.04%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.74/barrel, up US $1.66 or 1.90%. Brent crude oil contract in March rose above $90 for the first time since 2014. The main reason is that the supply tension is expected to continue to rise and boost oil prices, the tension between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, and the output increase of OPEC of the organization of petroleum exporting countries is lower than expected.

In January, the price of ethylene in the external market fluctuated and rose. At the beginning of the month, the average price of ethylene was 1245.25 US dollars / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of ethylene was 1262.00 US dollars / ton, an increase of 1.35%. The current price increased by 0.90% month on month, and the current price increased by 23.73% year-on-year.

On January 26, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4316.67, a decrease of 6.5% compared with January 1 (4616.67). In late January, the market of calcium carbide mainly fluctuated and fell slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was good, but the increase was small. It was mainly consolidation, the downstream PVC market weakened, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that PVC was first restrained and then raised in January, and rose strongly in the second half of the month. Near the Spring Festival holiday, transportation capacity is limited, downstream demand is reduced, there is little market trading, and the market is in a situation of price without market. It is expected that the PVC market will be stable and small in the short term, mainly consolidation.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of January 26, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8100 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8883 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 783 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.82%.

In early January, after the new year’s Day holiday, the domestic n-propanol market temporarily operated stably. After the n-propanol unit of a large factory in Shandong was put into operation, the tension on the supply side in the field was relieved, the supply in the field increased, and the downstream demand performance was average. From the 7th, the domestic n-propanol market started to decline, and the demand side before the holiday was not boosted well, Suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong Province have successively reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol. As of January 15, the ex factory price of domestic n-propanol is around 7400-8000 yuan / ton, with a cumulative reduction range of 500-700 yuan / ton in half a month.

In late January, the domestic n-propanol market continued to decline. Some suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong continued to reduce the ex factory price of n-propanol by 100-200 yuan / ton. As of January 19, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 7400-7800 yuan / ton, and the quotation including package was around 8700-9000 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the domestic n-propanol market stopped falling and stabilized, and it was weak. At present, as of the 26th, the ex factory price of domestic n-propanol is around 7400-9500 yuan / ton. The market of n-propanol in Nanjing is running stably for the time being. The ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in specific negotiations. There are also differences in each region. It is mainly based on actual negotiation, and we will see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external market of ethylene fluctuated frequently in January. As of January 26, the reference price of ethylene was 1262 yuan / ton, down 1.35% from January 1 (1245.25 yuan / ton).

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

Approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream demand of domestic n-propanol is cautious and the preparation of goods is basically over. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will be stable and run, and the fluctuation of the market before the festival is limited. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 25, the average price of domestic power type high-grade lithium iron phosphate was 124000.00 yuan / ton, and the market price of lithium iron phosphate increased slightly by 5.26% compared with the same period last week. The overall market negotiation focus was high, the inventory was low, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere was acceptable.

The price trend of lithium iron phosphate is relatively strong. At present, the mainstream price is 124000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturers are actively shipping. At present, the supply side is tight, the negotiation focus is high, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is OK. The focus of the upstream market is high, and the price rises. The lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is relatively strong.

On January 24, the chemical index was 1206 points, up 88 points from yesterday, down 13.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 101.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell slightly this week. The average price of Shandong market on January 23 was 3220.00 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from 3266.25 yuan / ton on January 17.

On January 23, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 250.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 4.48% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 274.42% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the shipment of refineries slowed down, the transaction was general, the supply of some refineries increased, and the price fell slightly.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the oil price reached a nearly seven-year high, mainly due to the expectation of tight supply. Previously, the transportation was temporarily interrupted due to the fire of the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for oil growth in 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, with investors believing that the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, and the oil price continues to rebound. The survey results released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the eighth consecutive week last week. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates supply concerns, and oil prices are supported.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; The market price of metal silicon decreased slightly; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of January 23, the price was 21370.00 yuan / ton.

The petroleum coke analyst of business society believes that: the supply of local refineries has increased recently, the shipment is general, the price has dropped slightly, the procurement of downstream terminals before the festival is about to end, and the logistics is about to have a holiday. At present, the price of local petroleum coke is high, and it is expected that the price of petroleum coke may fall slightly in the near future.

Acetic anhydride prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell this week. As of January 21, the price of acetic anhydride was 9425 yuan / ton, down 2.58% from 9675 yuan / ton on January 14. The actual transaction price of some customers fell below 9000 yuan / ton. Costs fell, traders shipped actively, and acetic anhydride fell.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell

 
As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 1.01% this week, the price of acetic acid fell this week, the market of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business society believe that the price of acetic acid fell this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly; During the Spring Festival, acetic anhydride manufacturers and traders had a strong willingness to clean up inventory, while downstream customers had relatively cold purchasing enthusiasm, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is insufficient, and the price of raw materials falls. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Futures market: on January 20, the main pf futures contract closed at 7516, down 0.40% from yesterday’s settlement price, and the settlement price was 7554; The trading volume is 130554 hands; The position was 116171, the position decreased by 750, and the basis was – 31. Domestic polyester staple fiber raw material futures closed mixed today, with PTA down 0.63% and ethylene glycol up 0.39%.

Spot price: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on January 20 was 7485 yuan / ton, up 2.98% from last week and 16.08% year-on-year. East China’s firm offer was around 7250 yuan / ton.

Analysis: in terms of cost, the U.S. stock market fell sharply, IEA reported cooling to the excited crude oil market, and WTI New York crude oil CFD fell 1.00% overnight. Some PTA units are expected to restart, and the new unit is planned to be commissioned. The supply is expected to increase, and the PTA price decreases slightly. In terms of demand, the overall production and sales of the factory declined slightly and the atmosphere weakened.

Forecast: in the short term, geopolitical tensions reappear, global supply is tight, the impact of Omicron variant on demand is weakened, crude oil is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and short fiber cost support is strong. However, the downstream spinning and weaving demand is still expected to be weak, and the upward space of staple fiber is limited. Staple fiber market is short-term or strong in shock.