1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 9th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1921 yuan/ton, which is 2.49% higher than the reference average price of 1875 yuan/ton on May 5th.
2、 Market analysis
market conditions
This week, the domestic urea market has shown a strong upward trend. As of May 9th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1840-1940 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1870-1970 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1850-1910 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1850-1930 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1860-1910 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the urea market has sufficient supply this week, and inventory pressure is still present, with stable shipments from enterprises. In terms of demand, the market transaction atmosphere is good this week, and downstream demand is still following up. But after continuous increases, the downstream cautious mentality has increased.
3、 Future forecast
The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market trend has been improving recently. At present, the urea market is experiencing smooth shipments and good market trading, awaiting the release of export news. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will remain strong in the short term.

In early April, the supply of epichlorohydrin in the market was tight, and prices showed an upward trend. In mid April, the epoxy chloropropane plant resumed operation, with increased market supply and good downstream procurement demand. Under the favorable supply and demand situation, the price of epoxy chloropropane was raised. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 30th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.12% compared to early April. At the end of April, the market price of epichlorohydrin showed a downward trend, downstream demand was weak, and enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The epichlorohydrin market remained stable. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market will maintain stable operation in the near future.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: In mid April, the market price of glycerol raw material increased, the low-priced supply decreased, and the supply was tight, which provided strong support for glycerol based epichlorohydrin enterprises and led to an increase in prices. In early April, some of the propylene raw material enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in tight market supply and price increases. In late April, the demand for raw material propylene decreased in actual orders, the trading focus weakened, and market prices showed signs of fluctuating decline. Overall, the raw material support for epichlorohydrin has shifted from strong to weak, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will remain stable and consolidate in the near future. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 30th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6610.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -200% compared to the beginning of this month (6745.75 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Last week, overall, the operating rate remained at around 50-60%, and the supply side was slightly loose.
Downstream demand side: In early April, the downstream epoxy resin market supply remained normal, with a capacity utilization rate of over 50%. The overall trading atmosphere has improved, the purchasing atmosphere is positive, and the market is dominated by behavior. In late April, the supply of epoxy resin market was sufficient, and the downward trend of dual raw materials provided weak support for its cost. In addition, the pre holiday stocking ended, overall inquiries decreased, and the trading atmosphere was cold, resulting in a downward trend in the market. Overall, the downstream demand side’s support for epichlorohydrin has shifted from strong to weak, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will remain stable and stable in the near future. More attention should be paid to the market supply and demand relationship.
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that the pre holiday stocking has ended, the market supply and demand support is insufficient, downstream demand is weak, and on-demand procurement is required. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market will maintain stable operation in the near future, and more attention still needs to be paid to market supply and demand changes and raw material market dynamics.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 11766 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12033/ton, with a price increase of 2.27%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have seen some price increases this month, but most have remained stable. Henan Province, as the main production area, has relatively small price fluctuations. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification is between 9500-13500 yuan/ton. Downstream sewage treatment plants, water plants, steel mills, and other chemical enterprises have increased their demand for carbon, and the demand fundamentals have slightly improved, which has slightly boosted the mentality of industry players.
In terms of imports: The price of imported coconut shell carbonization materials has increased, with the Philippines and Indonesia quoting a factory price of 6600-7000 yuan/ton for bulk materials including taxes, and a factory price of 7200-7300 yuan/ton for specification materials including taxes, which is slightly higher in some areas. The transaction volume of shell charcoal in gold extraction, water purification, filter and other applications is light, with more inquiries from African gold charcoal; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal is smooth.
Prediction: The transaction volume in the activated carbon market is accelerating, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of soda ash remained stable this week. As of April 25th, the average market price of soda ash was 1400 yuan/ton, which was the same as the 1400 yuan/ton soda ash price on April 18th and a decrease of 2.37% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the soda ash market has remained stable with small fluctuations, and prices in some regions have slightly decreased during the week. The operating rate of supply side equipment remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and enterprises maintain active shipment. Downstream consumption of inventory is the main factor, and the market buying sentiment is average. The demand for soda ash is limited, and on-site trading is weak. The overall transaction price of soda ash fluctuates slightly.
As of April 25th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1280-1500 yuan/ton for light soda ash, which remains unchanged from last Friday; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1240-1400 yuan/ton for light soda ash, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to last Friday.
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market is running steadily. From April 18th to 25th, glass prices remained at 15.58 yuan/square meter. The capacity utilization rate of the glass market has slightly decreased, downstream demand is poor, market consumption is slow, glass inventory has accumulated narrowly, and market prices are stable and waiting to be seen.
In the future forecast, there will be maintenance plans for some domestic soda ash facilities, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization and an improvement in market sentiment. However, in terms of demand, downstream entry enthusiasm is not high, and the situation of oversupply in the market still exists. It is expected that the soda ash market will operate steadily in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 25th, the average price of acetic acid was 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.83% compared to the price of 2830 yuan/ton on April 19th, and a decrease of 2.14% compared to the beginning of the month.
This week, the acetic acid market has been weak and declining, with enterprise quotations continuously falling. On the supply side, as the acetic acid plant of a large factory in Shandong is increasing its load, the market capacity utilization rate has increased, the pressure on on-site supply of goods has increased, and enterprises are actively shipping. Downstream market sentiment is not high, and a small amount of purchases are being made on demand, resulting in limited business transactions. Under the supply-demand game, the price of acetic acid continues to decline.
As of April 25th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:
Region /April 18th /April 25th /Rise and fall
South China region /2700 yuan/ton /2675 yuan/ton / -25
North China region /2765 yuan/ton /2675 yuan/ton / -90
Shandong region /2780 yuan/ton /2700 yuan/ton / -80
Jiangsu region /2580 yuan/ton /2540 yuan/ton / -40
Zhejiang region /2825 yuan/ton /2750 yuan/ton / -75
The upstream methanol market fluctuates within a certain range. From April 19th to 25th, the average domestic market price increased from 2413.75 yuan/ton to 2417.50 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.16%. The recent demand for pre holiday stocking of methanol downstream in mainland China has provided some support for the market atmosphere, with smooth shipments from enterprises. However, there is still a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, and the overall price changes in the market are limited.
The downstream acetic anhydride market continues to decline, with an average ex factory price of 4737.50 yuan/ton on April 25th, a decrease of 1.04% compared to the price of 4787.50 yuan/ton on April 19th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and declining, with a negative impact on the cost of acetic anhydride. Acetic anhydride companies have a bearish attitude, with prices continuously decreasing. Downstream demand is limited, and market transactions are insufficient. Acetic anhydride prices have been weak during the cycle.
In terms of future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is high, the market supply is sufficient, downstream buyers enter the market on demand, the trading atmosphere in the market is weak, and enterprise shipments are limited. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will operate weakly in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the equipment and downstream follow-up situations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 14th to 18th, the domestic aggregated MDI market accelerated its decline, with an average price of 15116 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 14300 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 5.4% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 15.64%. There is a strong pessimistic atmosphere in the domestic MDI aggregation market during the week, and there is a strong willingness to ship at low prices. The on-site supply is sufficient, but the demand is light, resulting in a wide decline in the aggregated MDI market.

On the supply side, the 1.2 million tons/year MDI plant of Wanhua Ningbo in China began rotating between two sets of plants on March 20th, while other plants were running smoothly. BASF and Huntsman have maintenance plans in May. There is a maintenance plan for the 400000 tons/year MDI plant in Tosa, Japan in May.
On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: After the continuous decline in the pure benzene market, there has been a slight rebound in prices recently, but due to the uncertainty of tariff policies, the future market is not optimistic. Raw material aniline: Aniline continues to fall sharply, with mainstream prices ranging from 7500-7600 yuan/ton. The overall shipment of aniline factory is not smooth, with accumulated inventory and insufficient confidence in the field.
On the demand side, downstream demand follow-up is poor, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the market is in a stage of oversupply.
Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is greatly affected by policies, and the mentality of industry players is relatively pessimistic. At the same time, under the further pressure of weak supply and demand, the price of aggregated MDI has fallen to a low level. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak trend in the short term and the decline will decrease.

The domestic fluorite price trend has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3743.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the beginning of the week price of 3775 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 5.46%.
Supply side: Some manufacturers have started production, and the supply of fluorite has increased
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. However, as the temperature rises, the previously suspended enterprises gradually start working, and the supply of fluorite enterprises on site has increased. This week, the fluorite market has slightly declined.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid negotiations in various regions of China is 11700-12200 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. They are not actively purchasing raw material fluorite, and the fluorite price market has slightly declined due to this news.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry are being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry’s inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market is temporarily stable, while there is little change in the fluorite market.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, the supply of domestic fluorite mines is difficult to improve, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, downstream resistance to high prices is serious, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand without actual demand increase. Overall, the fluorite market price is mainly fluctuating in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market experienced a volatile decline in February 2025. From March 1st to 31st, the domestic butadiene market price dropped from 11462.5 yuan/ton to 11000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.03% during the period.

Early month: At the beginning of the month, the butadiene market continued to show a weak trend, and the overall supply in the spot market was loose. The spot market was under pressure, and although the holders had a bullish attitude, the market atmosphere was difficult to support. The demand side synthetic rubber market trend remained weak within the week, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the butadiene market continued to delay its weak operation this week.
Mid month: The butadiene market first fell and then rose, but overall it remained weak. At the beginning of the week, the overall trading trend continued from the previous period, and the market was weak. Later, as the downstream synthetic rubber futures market began to improve and mainstream enterprises in East China temporarily shut down, the dual factors led to holders holding up prices and being reluctant to sell, driving the atmosphere of the spot market to improve and market prices to slightly rebound.
Late month: The performance of the domestic butadiene market remains weak, with a slight decrease in spot market prices and a weak market operation. This week, the spot market supply is relatively loose, and the supply side is slightly short. On the demand side, the synthetic rubber market has slightly weakened, and there is a need to replenish raw materials as needed. The mentality of the spot market is weak due to weak supply and demand, and the overall market operation is weak.
Cost wise: The international oil price trend in March has declined. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.36 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.76 per barrel. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the United States will also ease its oil sanctions against Russia, causing international oil prices to fall. Overall, the trend of international oil prices has declined.
Supply side: The listed prices of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec have overall declined this month, with a price of 11100 yuan/ton as of the 31st. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.
Demand side: The butadiene rubber market in March first fell and then rose, with an overall downward trend. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 13920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% from 14090 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, and the low point during the cycle was 13830 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly fallen, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased compared to the end of February, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased; In March, downstream tires started operating at a high level, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of March 28th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 13800-14100 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: In terms of supply, there will be less maintenance of butadiene enterprises in the near future, and the subsequent arrival at ports will be better. The market expects good supply of butadiene, but the supply side is relatively empty. In terms of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has recently shown weak performance, with demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, the supply and demand performance of the butadiene market is bearish, and it is expected to be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 21 to March 28, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 11037.5 yuan/ton to 11000 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.34% during the period. This week, the performance of the butadiene market remains weak, with a slight decrease in spot market prices and a weak market operation. This week, the spot market supply is relatively loose, and the supply side is slightly short. On the demand side, the synthetic rubber market has slightly weakened, and there is a need to replenish raw materials as needed. The mentality of the spot market is weak due to weak supply and demand, and the overall market operation is weak. As of March 28th, the delivery price in Shandong region is between 11200-11250 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: International crude oil futures closed higher on March 27th, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $69.92 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.34 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 11100 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged this week.
Demand side: During this cycle, the butadiene rubber market first fell and then rose, with a slight overall decline. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 26, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 13920 yuan/ton, with stable raw material butadiene prices and weak support for butadiene rubber costs; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and the pressure on the supply side still exists; The downstream construction is basically stable, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber, and there is a slight consolidation of merchant offers. As of March 28th, mainstream prices for butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are reported at 13550-13700 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The crude oil market trend this week is stable, moderate, and strong, providing good support for the market. In terms of supply, there have been few maintenance visits to butadiene enterprises recently, and the subsequent arrival situation at the port is good. The market expects a good supply of butadiene, but the supply side is relatively empty. In terms of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has recently shown weak performance, with demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, the supply and demand performance of the butadiene market is bearish, and it is expected to be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.

The butadiene rubber market in March first fell and then rose, with an overall decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 13920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% from 14090 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, and the low point during the cycle was 13830 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly fallen, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased compared to the end of February, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased; In March, downstream tires started operating at a high level, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of March 28th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 13800-14100 yuan/ton.

Since March, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the price of butadiene was 11000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03% from 11462 yuan/ton at the beginning of March.
The construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants in March showed a slight increase compared to February, with an overall construction rate of around 6.90%. At present, Zhejiang Chuanhua’s 150000 tons/year high Shun butadiene rubber plant will be shut down for maintenance for 25 days starting from March 26th. In addition, Shandong Yihua’s 100000 tons/year Shun butadiene rubber plant has maintenance plans in the later stage, and the supply of Shun butadiene rubber is expected to decrease.
Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of March 21st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate weakly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; The temporary stability of downstream construction provides some support for Shunding Rubber. With some equipment maintenance plans in the later stage, the supply pressure of Shunding Rubber is expected to slightly decrease. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding Rubber market will consolidate in the later stage.