Price trend: first rising and then falling, dominated by supply and demand game
Rising at the beginning of the month (7.1-7.14):
Tightening supply: Some enterprises in Shandong have shut down for maintenance due to equipment failures, and the overall operating rate of the industry has dropped to around 70%. The market supply has decreased, and inventory is low.
Price increase: Downstream companies have slightly restocked in anticipation of price increases, driving the average price of bulk water in the Shandong market to 2237.5 yuan/ton, reaching a high point for the month with a growth rate of 6.04%.
Late fall (7.15-7.28):
Supply recovery: Parking facilities are gradually restarting, industry operating rates have rebounded to 75%, and market supply has increased.
Weak demand: Downstream consumers are resistant to high prices and only maintain essential purchases, resulting in accumulated inventory and price pressures leading to a decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 28th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province has fallen to 2097 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% for the month.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Device fluctuations dominate short-term market trends
Device dynamics: Due to unexpected maintenance at the beginning of the month, the supply was tight. In the later part of the month, as the device resumed, the supply pressure eased.
Inventory pressure: Low inventory supported price increases in the first half of the month, while weak demand in the second half led to inventory accumulation and suppressed prices.
Cost side: Raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine both fell, with insufficient support
Methanol: With loose supply and weak demand, prices have fallen. As of July 28th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2399 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.16% for the month.
Liquid chlorine: The demand recovery in the Shandong market is slow, and the center of gravity for liquid chlorine has shifted downwards.
Impact: Weakening cost support, narrowing profit margins for dichloromethane, and increased willingness of enterprises to lower prices for shipments.
On the demand side: seasonal suppression, with rigid procurement as the main focus
Traditional downstream (coatings, adhesives): Due to high temperatures, rainy seasons, and environmental inspections, the operating rate is low and demand is weak.
Refrigerant (R32): Both production and sales are strong, but the proportion of dichloromethane produced by the enterprise is high, and the increase in external procurement is limited, resulting in insufficient market pull.
Overall procurement model: Downstream suppliers tend to restock at low prices, with low acceptance of high prices, which suppresses the potential for price increases.
Outlook for the future: The supply-demand game may continue, or maintain a narrow range of fluctuations
It is expected that the supply-demand game will continue in August. If there is no significant improvement on the demand side, prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. If companies continue to reduce negative control volume, the downward trend may be delayed. Pay attention to the equipment situation, inventory changes, and raw material price trends of the enterprise.