Zinc price fell on May 9

 

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According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price fell sharply on May 9, and the zinc market fell. On May 9, the price of zinc was 26304 yuan / ton, down 2.78% from 27056 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Zinc prices fell again this week; Compared with 2021, the price of zinc increased by 17.24% year-on-year.

 

Key points of analysis

 

The zinc ingot inventory in LME market increased, the supply expectation of zinc market increased, the contradiction between supply and demand of zinc market eased, the rising power of zinc market weakened, and the downward pressure increased; Domestic zinc downstream enterprises started weaker, zinc downstream customers were strongly afraid of heights, the demand of zinc market fell, the recent domestic and foreign economic data were poor, the growth of global manufacturing industry slowed down and the demand was weak. The policies of ensuring supply and smooth, resumption of work and production were promoted in an orderly manner, the domestic control policies were adjusted, the resumption of work in the downstream was accelerated, and the enterprise production was expected to improve. However, the overall downstream demand turned better than expected, the nonferrous metals sector fell, and the downward pressure on the zinc market increased.

 

Future forecast

 

Under the background of weak supply and demand, the supply is expected to increase, the demand is expected to decline, the contradiction between supply and demand is alleviated, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and fall in the future.

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From April 29 to May 5, 2022, the production price of domestic coal tar increased. The price was 5217.5 yuan / ton last weekend and 5467.6 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.79%.

 

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Summary of coal tar bidding price in Shanxi on May 7 (unit: yuan / ton)

 

Region, Market price, Compared with last week’s bidding price

Linfen, 5110.,0

Lv Liang, 5660.,+460

Taiyuan, 5670.,+450

Yuncheng, 5150.,0

From the above bidding price list of coal tar in Shanxi, it can be seen that affected by the May Day holiday, enterprises in some areas will not arrange coal tar auction this week, but will continue the pre holiday price. In areas with auction plans this week, the price will rise sharply.

 

Since late April, the price of high-temperature coal tar has been boosted by the downstream and entered the upward channel. Before the May Day holiday, there is a certain demand for holiday goods in the downstream. Therefore, the auction price of tar has increased significantly. Some enterprises have auctioned the supply of goods after the festival before the Festival, so the overall price is high, which once again boosted the market mentality. After the festival, some enterprises have opened the auction this week. Among them, the auction price in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei and other places has increased significantly, The majority of Shandong province implemented the pre holiday contract of 5350 yuan / ton. The regional difference of tar price is large this week, but the overall trend remains upward. In terms of supply, after the festival, the first round of coke increase and decrease of 200 yuan / ton has been started, and there is basically no suspense about the landing. Therefore, the commencement of coking enterprises may be reduced in the future, and the tar will face a tight supply situation in the later stage. At present, the demand of downstream industries is good, enterprises actively prepare goods, and the demand for tar is OK. With the support of tight supply and good demand in the future, most regions will participate in the supplementary rise of tar price next week. However, tar is currently at a high level as a whole, and it is expected that tar price will continue to strengthen, but the increase range is limited.

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According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 6, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 1 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 9166 yuan / ton), the price increased by 1034 yuan / ton, or 11.27%.

 

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It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that during the May Day Labor Day, the domestic n-butanol market was smoothly sorted and operated. After the festival, the domestic n-butanol market ushered in a wide rise. On the 5th, the n-butanol factories in Shandong generally raised the ex factory price of n-butanol by 300-700 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of more than 8%. On the 6th, the overall market price of n-butanol in Shandong continued to rise, and the low-end quotation in the venue was raised again, with an increase range of 300-500 yuan / ton. The high-low price difference of n-butanol narrowed, and the market price of n-butanol in Shandong broke the 10000 yuan mark, with a reference of 10100-10500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in South China is around 10600-11000 yuan / ton. At present, after the festival, the inventory of n-butanol plants remains low, and the supply side gives support. The n-butanol industry makes a firm offer. In the downstream, downstream factories mostly take the attitude of just in need purchase of raw materials after the wide rise. Some downstream plants have certain raw material reserves before the festival, mainly real and small orders.

 

In terms of upstream propylene, after the May Day holiday, the domestic propylene market in Shandong Province as a whole showed an upward movement. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of propylene was 8660.80 yuan / ton on May 5, up 2.93% compared with 8414.60 yuan / ton on May 1.

 

Future analysis of n-butanol

 

At present, after two days of continuous rise in the n-butanol market, the trading atmosphere on the floor is cautious, and the downstream has also increased the wait-and-see mood towards high prices. The n-butanol data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly focus on high-level consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

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1、 Price summary on May 4:

 

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The quotation of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 7100 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Company is 7150 yuan / ton,

 

Yangba offers 7450 yuan / ton,

 

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan / ton,

 

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7550 yuan / ton,

 

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

 

In terms of crude oil, the EU has formulated a plan to gradually stop importing Russian oil, which has aroused widespread concern in the market and led to a sharp rise in oil prices.

 

Crude oil rose sharply yesterday, and the cost support strengthened; During the festival, the gasoline market is OK and the price rises; Sinopec’s price rose, and the spot market was boosted and actively followed up.

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In April, the domestic ethanol market continued to rise slightly, with different increases in various regions. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the price at the beginning of the month was 7300 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7437 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.88% within the month and a year-on-year increase of 12.26%.

 

Annual comparison chart of ethanol price from 2018 to 2022:

 

At the beginning of the month, the rise in domestic ethanol prices slowed down. The price of raw corn is still high, and the transportation in some areas is still poor, resulting in insufficient operating rate of ethanol manufacturers. The shutdown of individual factories in Henan, the main production area, led to a rise in prices at the beginning of the week, but the high price fell with the recovery of supply. The lower reaches have a mentality of resistance to high price goods, and most of them just need to purchase.

 

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic ethanol price fluctuated slightly, the price of raw corn was still at a high level, and the current price of ethanol was also at a quite high position. The units in some areas could not be started, the downstream demand was weak, and the logistics and transportation were limited, so the ethanol market fell into a stalemate.

 

In mid June, domestic ethanol prices recovered slightly, with slight differences among regions: the offer of ethanol market in Henan rose, the offer of large factories continued to rise, the price in Henan was not high, and the production and sales of large factories were good. There is no start-up plan for the equipment of Jilin large plant, and the superior enterprise starts to deliver goods with normal orders. Large factories in Heilongjiang deliver goods with orders, and there are few new orders. At present, the factory inventory has increased slightly, the logistics has been liberalized, some factories in the market have low prices, and some excellent factories have short-term maintenance plans.

 

In late June, the price of raw corn fluctuated slightly, and the price of ethanol remained at a high level. The demand for downstream Baijiu and chemical industry remained just in need of purchase. If the high level of ethanol was difficult to fall, the downstream demand would be difficult to improve significantly. With the temperature rising, the market off-season gradually came, and the demand side could not have obvious support. Therefore, the recent domestic ethanol market is dominated by narrow consolidation,

 

At the end of the month, the price of ethanol remained high, and the demand of downstream Baijiu factories and chemical industry felt high cost pressure. As the demand side gradually enters the off-season, the demand after the festival will continue to maintain rigid demand procurement and wait and see the price trend.

 

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of ethanol:

 

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Weekly K column chart of ethanol domestic production price of business society:

 

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of bulk commodity prices in March 2022, there were 74 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, of which 37 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 34.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were ammonium sulfate (57.60%), formic acid (53.79%) and sulfuric acid (42.86%). A total of 32 commodities fell month on month, and 16 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 14.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were organosilicon DMC (- 24.23%), glycine (- 22.60%) and DMF (- 12.08%). The average rise and fall this month was 4.8%.

 

Comparison chart of corn (upstream raw material) and ethanol price trend of business society:

 

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) in business society:

 

As of April 29, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

 

Region, Category, Price

Guangxi region, Honey alcohol, 7650-7900 yuan / ton

Guangxi region, Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol, 7650-7900 yuan / ton

Guangxi region, Anhydrous ethanol, 8450 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong Province, Corn alcohol, 8000 yuan / ton, Dongguan self delivery

Guangdong Province, Rice / Cassava general ethanol, 7700-7800 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong Province, Anhydrous cassava ethanol, 8500 yuan / ton, Dongguan self delivery

Sichuan region, Corn alcohol, 7600 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Yunnan Province, Molasses alcohol, 7200-7250 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan Province, Superior, 7350 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan Province, Anhydrous ethanol, 8100-8150 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei Province, General, 7350 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei Province, No water, 7600 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, Wheat general grade, 7400-7450 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, Superior corn, 7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, Corn has no water, 8300 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu, General, 7700-7800 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, General, 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, Superior, 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, No water, 8300-8450 yuan / ton

Anhui Province, General, 7500-7600 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui Province, No water, 8350-8400 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jinzhou area, Liaoning Corn alcohol general grade 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region General level 6850-7050 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang Region Absolute ethanol 7850-7950 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 7000-7100 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin Region Premium alcohol 7100-7300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin Region Absolute ethanol 8000-8200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

 

The price of raw materials is strong and supported by high cost. In terms of downstream demand for Baijiu, the demand decreases with the warming of the weather. After the implementation of the policy, the demand is bound to be frustrated. In terms of chemical industry, it basically maintains the rigid demand for procurement, and there is more support for goods preparation before the festival. It may be light procurement in early May. The ethanol analyst of business society predicts that the domestic ethanol market will mainly be sorted out at a high level in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell slightly this week. As of April 29, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 11500.00 yuan / ton, down 1.43% from the average price of 11666.67 yuan / ton on April 24 and 5.48% from the same period last month.

 

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On April 29, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 108.33, the same as yesterday, 34.91% lower than the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and 111.66% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline. In the near future, the downstream unsaturated resin market has been basically stable, dominated by rigid demand. As of the 29th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 10500 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 10500 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 10500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 10500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11000 yuan / ton.

 

Upstream, pure benzene rose in shock this week. The average price of pure benzene was 8460 yuan / ton on April 25 and 8590 yuan / ton on April 29, up 130 yuan / ton, or 1.54%. At present, pure benzene is obviously affected by the fluctuation of crude oil trend, some downstream purchase intentions have rebounded to a certain extent, and the demand support is obvious. Superimposed on the pre holiday replenishment demand, the price of pure benzene has risen recently. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose this week. The average price of hydrogenated benzene was 8425 yuan / ton on April 25 and 8550 yuan / ton on April 29, up 125 yuan / ton, or 1.48%. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 6600 yuan / ton as of April 29.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is mainly sorted out, and the downstream resin manufacturers are mainly in need of purchase. Affected by the domestic epidemic, transportation is limited, and the atmosphere of goods preparation in the downstream before the festival is light. In May, the maleic anhydride shutdown units were restored one after another, and the supply increased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine price was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of industrial grade glycine was 22333 yuan / ton, with no rise or fall.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glycine was temporarily stable this week. The mainstream market quotation was around 21000-22000 yuan / ton. About 50% of the construction started in Hebei. Some factories in Shandong stopped and the overall market supply was sufficient. Affected by the decline in the price of raw materials and downstream glyphosate, the price of glycine was weak.

 

Downstream products: the mainstream price of downstream glyphosate technical drug is around 64000 yuan / ton. It is understood that the current market price is high, the rising power is insufficient, the supply of foreign manufacturers returns to normal, the tight supply of glyphosate has been effectively alleviated, and the future rising space of glyphosate is limited.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current glycine market is lack of positive factors to boost, and the price is expected to be adjusted and operated in a narrow range.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6700 yuan / ton on April 1 and 6687 yuan / ton on April 28. The price of chlorinated paraffin fell by 0.19% this month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Chlorinated paraffin rose first and then fell this month. The price of chlorinated paraffin increased slightly in early April. The cost support is good, the demand for chlorinated paraffin is general, and the downstream operation is low. The price of chlorinated paraffin in Anhui, Henan, Hebei and Shandong increased, and the market in other regions was stable. The price of chlorinated paraffin fell steadily in the middle and late April. The supply of chlorinated paraffin is acceptable, but the downstream demand is general and the raw material market is stable. The price of chlorinated paraffin in Shandong decreased, and the market in other regions was stable. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation situation is not smooth, and some enterprises stop production. The downstream demand weakened, the exchange trading volume decreased, and the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased slightly. As of April 28, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 7000 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6700 yuan / ton, that in Northeast is about 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 6350 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose steadily in April, and the enterprise shipped steadily. The market trading is active, and downstream manufacturers actively purchase. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the market weakened after the price of liquid chlorine rose steadily in April. Due to the epidemic situation, the transportation was blocked and the atmosphere in the venue was weak. The overall demand is weak and the transaction volume is reduced.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business society believe that the price of raw liquid wax rose this month, which is a favorable support for the cost of chlorinated paraffin. However, the demand side follows up slowly, the supply and demand of chlorinated paraffin are weak, and the pressure is large. Due to the epidemic, some enterprises have stopped production. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin will operate weakly and stably in the short term, and the site will mainly wait and see carefully.

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According to the bulk list data of business society, as of April 27, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 9666.67 yuan / ton, up 36.15% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, 113.24% year-on-year in a three-month cycle and 297.26% compared with the same period last year.

 

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In April, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid rose sharply. In the first half of the month, the price of the main raw material methanol weakened, but the cost support remained. A large factory on the supply side was overhauled, the market supply contracted, the export market orders on the demand side increased, and the domestic main downstream just needed to follow up. The market inquiry and procurement atmosphere was positive, which had a certain impact on the transportation in some regions, and the price of formic acid rose sharply. In the second half of the month, the impact of changes in the cost side was small, the market supply was tight, the export market support was good, the main downstream formate was mainly purchased on demand, the demand of the downstream pesticide and pharmaceutical industry was good, the market trading was orderly, the support of supply and demand was stable, and the high level of formic acid market operated firmly.

 

In terms of cost, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 1274.00 on April 26, an increase of 13.35% compared with April 1 (1124.00); Upstream liquid ammonia, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong rose slightly on April 27; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable on April 27; Upstream methanol, according to the bulk list data of business society, the reference price of methanol was 2805.00 on April 26, down 8.63% compared with April 1 (3070.00).

 

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that at present, the main raw material methanol market is reorganized and operated, and the cost impact is general. The downstream needs replenishment just before the festival. The market atmosphere is mild and orderly. It is expected that the formic acid market will mainly operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

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441# silicon price trend

 

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Market analysis

 

Today, the price of metal silicon maintained stable operation. According to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of domestic metal silicon market on the 20th was 20860 yuan / ton.

 

From the perspective of supply and demand, the market confidence of metal silicon has warmed up, and the inquiry has increased. Near the May Day holiday, the demand for goods preparation before the holiday has increased. At present, the supply has not changed significantly. The overall furnace has been started in more than half. As of the 21st, the overall furnace opening rate is 50.10%, with a month on month increase of 0.39%. Compared with the downstream market, the sentiment of the upstream and downstream aluminum alloy manufacturers continued to decline, but the demand for DMC continued to increase.

 

Business analysts believe that the decline of metal silicon has stopped and stabilized as a whole. Under the macro positive and high cost, the short-term price is expected to remain stable.

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