Price dynamics: on August 15, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 7950 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 7950 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7950 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 7950 yuan / ton;

Others: the quotation of Jingbo Petrochemical is 8050 yuan / ton, the quotation of HSBC Petrochemical is 8000 yuan / ton, the quotation of Weilian chemical is 8003 yuan / ton, the quotation of Xinhai Petrochemical is 8100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Hongrun Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the market expects that the oil supply in the Gulf of Mexico, which was interrupted before, will soon recover. In addition, the economic recession is expected to continue. The risk of energy demand decline has always covered the futures market, and the short-term oil price is still fluctuating in a long-term stalemate.

Asian American arbitrage window is closed, Asian pure benzene flows to China, imported pure benzene increases, and East China ports are expected to be accumulated. The downstream demand is poor, the supply of pure benzene is increased, and it is expected that the short-term weak operation of pure benzene. Today, the domestic price of pure benzene is 7950-8200 yuan / ton.

During the week, ethylene oxide digested the decline and the price remained stable. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 6300 yuan / ton.

Due to the slowdown of economic growth, high freight and weak global demand, the export of steam cracking unit products is hindered. Therefore, the current demand for spot naphtha is low. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia continues to decline, and has dropped to US $850 / T at present. As of the closing of Asia on August 11, the spot price difference between ethylene and naphtha CFR in Japan was US $135 / T. due to the weakness of ethylene, the price difference decreased, and the economy of naphtha cracking ethylene was poor.

At present, private enterprises mainly deliver orders. Under the pressure of cost, the supply of ethylene oxide continues to be tight. The zhouneselbang unit has been shut down for a short time due to failure, and it is expected that the situation will improve next week. It is reported that Yangzi Petrochemical Company plans to restart the unit on the 20th of this month. Maoming Petrochemical Company plans to restart the unit within this week, and the unit will be discharged soon. Wuhan Petrochemical Company will stop next weekend and restart in September. According to the latest ethylene price in Northeast Asia, ethylene oxide has a loss of about 500 yuan / ton.

The overall demand of the downstream industry continues to be weak, and the improvement power of monomer terminal demand is insufficient, and the demand for raw material ethylene oxide is still difficult to release.

Forecast: temporarily stable. People in the industry generally believe that the tight supply situation is expected to continue until the Yangtze River is started.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate kept a small upward trend this week. On August 11, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 463000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.09% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on August 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 462600 yuan / ton). On August 11, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 480600 yuan / ton, up 0.08% compared with the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on August 7 (480200 yuan / ton).

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate showed a small upward trend this week. At present, the supply of lithium carbonate in the spot market is a little tight. Due to the shortage of raw materials of some manufacturers, the production output of lithium carbonate is less than expected. Most of them are delivered by long orders, and there are relatively few zero orders. Due to the influence of limited power policies of enterprises in some regions, the output cannot be increased, which makes the recent volume of lithium carbonate not good.

On the demand side, the production of downstream enterprises is stable, and the production capacity is gradually climbing, which also leads to a steady increase in the demand for lithium carbonate. However, the price acceptance of high-level lithium carbonate is still low, and most of them just need to purchase, and the upward speed of the price is slow.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is stable, and the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is fluctuating and rising, which has a certain support for lithium hydroxide. The overall supply of the market is mainly stable, the demand side is weak, the shipping atmosphere is flat, and the negotiation focus of the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market is stable.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream has slightly decreased, and the downstream phosphorus source has declined under the downward pressure and the downstream pressure, driving the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate to decline. In addition, the supply growth of iron and lithium terminal is higher than the demand growth, which makes the price slightly lower.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business club, the spot supply of lithium carbonate market has declined recently, which makes the price of lithium carbonate show an upward trend. However, the demand side currently has no large support. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to be stable and small in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market fell slightly this week (August 1-5), of which polyester POY fell by 1.17%, polyester DTY and polyester FDY increased by 0.73% and 0.65% respectively. At present, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7700-8200 yuan / ton, the price of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 9100-9450 yuan / ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 8400-8700 yuan / ton in the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market unit: yuan / ton

Commodities, prices at the beginning of the week, prices at the weekend, weekly rise and fall, year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester FDY., 8570.00., 8514.17., – 0.65%, + 6.07%

Polyester DTY., 9348.64%, 9280.45, -0.73%, – 2.00%

Polyester POY., 8061.11., 7966.67., – 1.17%, + 1.34%

The downside risk of international oil prices has increased, and the cost side has shifted downward. The Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 50 basis points to curb the economic recession that may be triggered by inflation, which continued to be negative for oil prices. This was compounded by the sharp increase in US commercial crude oil inventories last week and the increase in production targets of Oil Producing Countries OPEC. As of August 4, it fell to the lowest level since February. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $88.54/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.12/barrel.

PTA followed the decline in crude oil. As of August 5, the average market price was 5825 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from the beginning of the week and up 10.86% year-on-year. However, in August, the maintenance of PTA units increased. In the parking of 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo, 1.5 million tons of Jiaxing petrochemical and 2.2 million tons of Hengli Dalian, the load of 700000 tons of Yadong petrochemical and 2.5 million tons of Baihong dropped to 80%, and the load of 2.25 million tons of Yisheng Dalian dropped to 60%. The load on the supply side decreased significantly, and the industrial operation dropped to around 66%.

July August is the traditional off-season of the textile and garment industry. Domestic terminal orders are still weak, and the market mentality is wait-and-see. Only a small amount of purchase is needed. In the off-season of the industry, the start-up of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving stopped around 50%. It is understood that the export foreign trade orders of terminal weaving and texturing enterprises are acceptable, and the number of orders received is generally 20-30 days.

Business analysts believe that the favorable news of PTA supply reduction has been digested due to the decline of international crude oil price, and the supply will be restored with the gradual restart of the overhaul unit, with the cost side dominated by bad news. In the downstream market, August is the traditional off-season of consumption, and the probability of continuous recovery of textile enterprises is relatively low. In the absence of effective improvement in demand, polyester prices will continue to follow the cost side fluctuations.

Zinc price rose on August 9

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose slightly on August 9, and the zinc market stopped falling and recovered. On August 9, the zinc price was 24524 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.10% over the zinc price of 24500 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On August 9, the zinc price stopped falling and rose; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 8.16% year on year.

Key points of analysis

The European energy crisis still exists, the zinc smelting cost remains high, and the supply of zinc is insufficient; Downstream enterprises have resumed production and work, domestic infrastructure projects have started to increase, the supply and demand of zinc market have recovered, the supply and demand of zinc market have not yet recovered to the expected level, and the downward pressure of zinc market still exists and the upward momentum is large.

Future forecast

The supply is insufficient and the demand is warming up. The downward pressure of zinc price still exists and the upward momentum is large. It is expected that the zinc price will rise slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol dropped slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic mainstream market of neopentyl glycol dropped from 11066.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10433.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 5.72%. On August 8, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 48.84, a decrease of 1.44 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, and a decrease of 52.86% from the highest point of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price dropped slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market in China this week decreased from 7266.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6766.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 6.88%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in the middle and early August may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell slightly, the cost support was weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weakened. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly.

The focus of domestic MIBK market negotiation this week is mainly downward. The market negotiation focus in East China dropped to 10000-10200 yuan / ton, and a small number of orders fell below 10000 yuan. The market negotiation reference in South China was about 10300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the acetone market declined slightly. Although the recent overhaul of the acetone plant at the raw materials end increased and the social supply was expected to decrease, the sluggish terminal procurement consumed the good supply side. The acetone market fell significantly at the weekend. The negotiated value in East China was 4850 yuan / t, and the short-term raw materials still showed a narrow downward trend.

The overall change of the downstream demand side is not large, and it has been in a state of insufficient buying for a long time. The carriers have to give up profits to ship. In addition, the market negotiation has been declining under the influence of the external environment.

In August, the operating rate of MIBK increased and the supply increased slightly, while the orders of the largest downstream antioxidant industry were insufficient, so it was difficult to improve the demand for raw materials. Generally speaking, the supply was still sufficient next week, and the demand was sluggish. It is expected that the weak adjustment will be made next week, and it is expected that the price in East China will be about 9900 yuan / ton.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the POM market rose this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of August 4, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 18566.67 yuan / ton, up or down +2.77% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, Shandong formaldehyde market fluctuated this week, with spot prices rising and falling. The price of upstream methanol is high and low, and the support for formaldehyde is general. The downstream plate plant is not well started, the demand continues to be weak, the overall inventory is high, and the stock removal is slow. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall in the short term.

The upstream formaldehyde market is volatile and has risen recently. POM cost side support is acceptable. In terms of industry load, recently, domestic POM enterprises have a high load and increased competition. POM rose in the short term due to the small rise in the upstream, but the inventory of manufacturers and midstream was high, the operating rate of terminal enterprises was generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate narrowed, the consumption of POM in the field was slow, and the off-season market was difficult to change. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly taking small orders, and have a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a certain contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the spot price is under pressure and stagnant. The mentality of merchants is general, and the offer is mainly to follow the enterprise or follow the market.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, while the upstream formaldehyde market rose in the second half of the week, and POM cost support was acceptable. The load of POM industry is high, and the support of supply side is poor. The consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the rise of POM price may be blocked due to the contradiction between supply and demand.

In July, the domestic MTBE market fell significantly due to the low-level fluctuation of crude oil. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE at the beginning of the month was 8610 yuan / ton, and the market price of MTBE at the end of the month was 7330 yuan / ton. The price fell 14.87% in the month, up 26.74% year-on-year.

Trend chart of average price of domestic MTBE producers in Shandong in July 2022:

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, concentrated in chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic MTBE market rebounded at a high level. The specific reasons are: crude oil was first suppressed and then increased, but the price is still at a high level, giving the market a certain psychological support; Gasoline prices have also followed the upward trend, with a slight increase in capacity utilization and an appropriate increase in demand for raw materials; Outlet support.

In the middle of August, the domestic MTBE market fell significantly, with crude oil prices rising first and then declining, and finally fell sharply compared with last week, which was a bad market mentality; The gasoline market entered a downward trend, lacking interest in high priced MTBE raw materials, and the overall transaction was poor.

In late August, the domestic MTBE market fell significantly, and the crude oil price fell sharply, and fell below the 100 yuan mark again, giving the market a heavy blow; The external market of MTBE continued to decline, and the export demand decreased; The initial overhaul factories have resumed operation one after another, and the overall supply has increased with it, highlighting the sales pressure of businesses.

At the end of the month, the MTBE market was suppressed first and then increased. Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil, the market has a strong pessimistic atmosphere. However, as the price fell to a low level, and the rebound of crude oil stopped falling, some downstream businesses replenished at a moderate amount of bargain hunting, business sales improved, and actively followed the rise to explore the market. The price is reduced by about 50 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, as of the close of July 28, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by $22.50 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $1089.99-1091.99 / ton. The closing price of MTBE in Europe fell by $1.50 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at $1514.74-1515.24 / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by 21.94 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at 1342.03-1342.39 dollars / ton (378.04-378.14 cents / gallon).

Region, country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia, FOB Singapore, 1089.99-1091.99 US dollars / ton, 22.5 US dollars / ton

Europe, FOB ara., 1514.74-1515.24 dollars / ton., -1.5 dollars / ton

United States, FOB Gulf, 1342.03-1342.39 dollars / ton, -21.94 dollars / ton

For enterprises, as of July 29, Shandong Chengtai new material MTBE quoted 7350 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally. Shidashenghua MTBE is stable, with a quotation of 7350 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally. The 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. operates smoothly, MTBE is reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the external quotation is 7300 yuan / ton. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical was reduced by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton. 125000 T / a isomerization MTBE unit operates normally. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 150 yuan / ton to 7250 yuan / ton.

Market demand is difficult to be greatly improved, and sales pressure remains in some regions. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may still decline in the short term.

According to the sample data monitored by business club, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 18400 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 16160 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 12.17% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 19.00%.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, concentrated in chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of July 29:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

In South China, 16000 yuan / ton, 15800-15900 yuan / ton

In East China, 16000 yuan / ton, 15800-15900 yuan / ton

16000-16200 yuan / ton in North China and Shandong, 15800-16000 yuan / ton nearby

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market was depressed, and the follow-up of actual orders was very limited, and the trading atmosphere in the trade market was cold. The monthly listing of major production enterprises has been announced one after another. The listing price was mostly stable in July. Traders were generally bearish on the aftermarket, and the market was sold at a low price.

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell significantly, the price fell broadly, the actual order of the terminal contributed to difficulties, the trade atmosphere weakened, and the low price was heard more. The stalemate and weak market continued, and the actual order of the terminal contributed to difficulties.

In the middle of August, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to decline, and traders adjusted prices sharply for many times, bearish on the future market. At present, the sluggish demand is still the main reason for limiting the market price of MDI.

In late August, the domestic aggregate MDI market atmosphere was still poor. Although towards the end of the month, manufacturers had taken measures to reduce supply and improve the market, insufficient demand has always restricted the rise of the domestic aggregate MDI market.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: crude oil fell continuously, and the support of external news was weak. Downstream purchasing turned weak, and the price of pure benzene fell.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

In terms of aniline, domestic aniline fell weakly, pure benzene fell weakly, and aniline cost support weakened. Aniline downstream delivery sentiment is general, and the factory delivery is less than expected.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a device operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; Shanghai kesichuang 600000 T / a unit operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the overhaul to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the overhaul to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; Dongcao Ruian 80000 T / a unit operates normally.

The MDI device has a multi storage maintenance plan, and the supply is expected to shrink. However, the downstream demand is restricted for a long time. The MDI analysts of the business community aggregate expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is dominated by low-level consolidation.