According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of steam coal was weak this week. On November 6, the energy index was 1159 points, unchanged from yesterday, 25.75% lower than the highest point 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and 126.81% higher than the lowest point 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of production area, the price of steam coal is weak, and its operation is affected by public health events and safety production reduction, so the price of steam coal drops slightly. Affected by public health events, prices in some areas of Shanxi have risen and fallen at the same time. At present, there are few long-distance coal hauling vehicles, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

In terms of downstream ports, traders’ quotations are weak, and they mainly take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the shipment volume of Daqin Line is still limited due to maintenance. Downstream customers are generally motivated to pick up goods, with few deals, and generally accept high prices. Prices are under pressure.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 4, the trend of national coal prices in late October was divided. The specific price changes of various coals are as follows: the price of anthracite (washed block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) is 1937.1 yuan/ton, down 3.6 yuan/ton from the previous period, or 0.2%. The price of ordinary blended coal (the blended coal of Shanxi pulverized coal and lump coal, with calorific value of 4500 kcal) is 1183.8 yuan/ton, up 36.7 yuan/ton or 3.2% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dahun (blended coal with good quality and calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 1378.0 yuan/ton, up 35.9 yuan/ton or 2.7% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (a high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal) was 1583.8 yuan/ton, up 38.8 yuan/ton or 2.5% from the previous period.

According to the analysts of the business community, the market transaction of steam coal in the origin area is relatively ordinary due to the impact of safety inspection and public health events. In terms of downstream ports, the downstream is still mainly wait-and-see for steam coal, generally accepting high prices, and the market is deadlocked. It is comprehensively predicted that the price of steam coal will be dominated by weak operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 3900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3766.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decline of 3.42%. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3660-3880 yuan/ton. On November 6, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 99.12, unchanged from yesterday, 31.52% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 2.49% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 9250.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9237.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 0.14%, up 14.75% year on year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 6162.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6075.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 1.42%, 4.29% higher than the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The overall trend of potassium chloride market in the middle and late November may be dominated by narrow shocks. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened, mainly for the purchase of steel. International potash fertilizer prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite continued to fall this week. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2533.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2466.67 yuan/ton, down 2.63% during the week.

The overall situation of sodium metabisulfite market this week was average. Influenced by the continuous weak cost, some enterprises lowered the factory price slightly again in November. The market price range of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite was 2400-2500 yuan/ton. The inventory of enterprises was about 30%. The increase of new orders was limited. Enterprises mainly completed orders from old customers.

In October, the price of domestic soda ash fell by 0.75%, the price of sulfur fell by 11.88%, and the cost of raw materials fell again, which will suppress the market price of sodium metabisulfite in the future.

Future market forecast

According to the analysts of the business community, the cost is falling again, and the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the short term, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price is under pressure.

In October, the fundamentals of ammonium chloride market continued to be weak, and the price of ammonium chloride fell slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of ammonium chloride was around 1012 yuan/ton at the beginning of October, and 980 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 3.21%. In October, the ex factory price of ammonium chloride enterprises was basically stable, and the offer of merchants to increase shipment decreased slightly. By the end of October, the factory price of ammonium chloride dry ammonium was around 900~970 yuan/ton, and the market mainstream price was around 950~1000 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand: On the one hand, the commencement of downstream compound fertilizer in October continued at a low level of 3 to 4, and the winter storage has not yet started, so the demand for ammonium chloride continues to be weak. On the other hand, about 80% of the domestic soda ash was started, and the supply of ammonium chloride was sufficient; Ammonium chloride is mainly weak under the pressure of oversupply.

In October, the price of raw material liquid ammonia fell sharply, and the cost support was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 30, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4113 yuan/ton, 5.95% lower than the price of 4373 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The amount of ammonia released in the main production area has only increased. Since the middle of October, Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian and other places have seen large shipments. With the effect of manufacturers’ successive price reductions, more efforts have been made to ship. Moreover, due to the continuous weak fluctuation of urea price, many enterprises have switched to liquid ammonia production recently. The ammonia volume in the second half of the month remains high, and the price is suppressed by loose supply.

Future market forecast: Ammonium chloride analysts from the business community believe that in October, when the supply and demand of ammonium chloride were weak, the price of liquid ammonia was low, and the cost support of ammonium chloride was weak. It is expected that the price of ammonium chloride will continue to be weak in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of activated carbon was 10866 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and 10666 yuan/ton at the end of this month, down 1.84%.

At present, the price of domestic activated carbon fell in October. At present, the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton; The activated carbon market is dominated by rigid demand, and the downstream demand performance is poor. There is a lack of cooperation in buying, business confidence is insufficient, and the market shipment rhythm is slow. Focus on the market transaction.

Activated carbon raw materials are rich in sources, including coal, wood chips, fruit shells, straw, etc. Activated carbon suitable for water treatment has been prepared through a series of processes. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and can effectively adsorb and purify wastewater.

Forecast: The trading volume in the activated carbon market is light, and the merchants may yield profits for shipment. It is expected that in the short term, the price of activated carbon will be mainly volatile and weak, and the specific price will be mainly negotiated.

1、 Price trend of tetrahydrofuran

(Figure: P value curve of tetrahydrofuran product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of tetrahydrofuran in this month rose first and then fell. The overall price of tetrahydrofuran was slightly reduced. At the beginning of the month, the average price of tetrahydrofuran was 17800.00 yuan/ton. In the middle and late of the month, it rose to 18675.00 yuan/ton, and then fell to 17725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 0.42% from the beginning of the month. The BDO on the raw material side was shocked and declined, the support on the cost side was weakened, the supplier’s attitude of keeping prices was dominant, the downstream maintained the follow-up of just needed orders, the overall inventory in the market was high, and the manufacturers of the goods gave way to profits for discussion, so the focus of delivery and investment did not fluctuate much.

The tetrahydrofuran analysts of the business community believed that the domestic tetrahydrofuran cost support was weakened. Although the downstream market of PTEMG spandex was strong, the downstream maintained the demand for orders to follow up, and the manufacturer’s quotation followed the market. In the short term, the overall market still has room for decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 31, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and 29.11% lower than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 31, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25833.33 yuan/ton, 0.64% lower than the price of 26000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 49.01% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The refrigerant R22 fundamentals did not fluctuate much in October, and the enterprise’s offer was stable as a whole. The price of raw material trichloromethane fell by 7.36% in the month, and the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded by 4.72% in the month. The overall cost of raw materials fluctuated slightly. In addition, the demand for refrigerant in the fourth quarter decreased year on year. The small rise in the price of hydrofluoric acid played a limited role in supporting the domestic R22 price. In October, the domestic R22 market price kept stable as a whole.

In October, the price of trichloroethylene was weak as a whole and stabilized, falling by about 5% in the month. In October, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price rebounded slightly, rising by 4.72% in the month. In general, the upstream raw material cost is still at the bottom of the market, which fluctuates slightly. In addition, the overall demand for refrigerant turns weak in winter, and the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude. The R134a price is in a dilemma, and the R134a price is stable and weak in Ouyue.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that the overall position of the cost of domestic upstream refrigerant raw materials in October moved forward slightly, and the prices of some raw materials fell slightly. Affected by the weakening of refrigerant demand in the fourth quarter, it is expected that the overall prices of domestic R22 and R134A will fall to varying degrees in November.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine rose in October. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 42600 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 49800 yuan/ton. The price rose 16.9%, down 28.47% year on year. On October 27, the bromine commodity index was 174.74, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.73% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 196.57% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine price rose this month, and now the mainstream bromine price in Shandong is about 48000-53000 yuan/ton. Now the bromine manufacturers are approaching the off-season of production. The manufacturers have no inventory, so the inventory pressure is low. The main manufacturers’ offer is rising. However, there is resistance in the downstream, and the supply and demand game, the price of sporadic transactions. The purchasing enthusiasm of bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry is relatively general in the near future.

In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur rose first and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 1486.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 1350 yuan/ton. The price fell 9.19%, 36.42% lower than the same period last year. At present, the domestic sulfur market is waiting for consolidation and operation. Although the port market is strong, and the attitude of the shippers to support the market is obvious, the refinery shipments are poor, and the market demand is limited. Later, the winter storage market opens, and the sulfur demand may increase. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will consolidate and operate, with specific attention paid to the downstream follow-up.

Analysts from the business community believe that the bromine price has risen recently, and bromine enterprises intend to increase it, but the enthusiasm of bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry is not very good in the near future. The supply and demand of both parties play a game, and the downstream is under pressure. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will run better, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the hydrogen peroxide market declined in October. At the beginning of this month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 920 yuan/ton. On October 27, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 863 yuan/ton, down 6.16%.

The terminal demand was flat. The hydrogen peroxide market declined in October

During the National Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide terminal printing, paper industry and other manufacturers stopped for maintenance, terminal demand turned weak, manufacturers were not confident in pricing, and they lowered the factory price one after another. The hydrogen peroxide market fell, with the mainstream quotation dropping to 890 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 2%.

After the festival, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in terminal printing, paper industry and other industries decreased, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to weaken. There is a big difference in the domestic market in major production areas. The hydrogen peroxide market in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream quotation drops to 600 yuan/ton; The market of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui Province is relatively stable, lasting 1100 yuan/ton. The domestic hydrogen peroxide market continues to be weak, led by bad news.

At the end of the month, the market of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline. The mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong Province fell to 640 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation in Anhui Province remained at 1100 yuan/ton. The terminal demand has not yet recovered, and hydrogen peroxide continues to be weak.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst from the business agency, believes that since November, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have restarted their devices, increasing market supply, and the future market will still weaken.

Overview of ethylene glycol price trend

According to the data of the business society, on October 26, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4133.33 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from Friday and 35.16% year on year.

Glycol Fundamentals Overview

Supply side: the supply starts to increase. With the restart of early maintenance devices, the domestic ethylene glycol supply has increased.

Demand side: On October 25, the operating rate of polyester was 82.37%, a small increase compared with the previous month. The production and sales of polyester filament were 49.6% (- 0.5%).

According to the inventory data, the ethylene glycol inventory at the main port of East China on October 24 was 811000 tons, 36100 tons more than that on October 20. From October 24 to October 30, the arrival volume of East China’s main port is expected to be 208000 tons.

Import and export data:

From January to September, the cumulative import volume of ethylene glycol was 5808300 tons, down 8.13% year on year; In September, the import volume of ethylene glycol was 618400 tons, up 3.38% month on month and 2.91% year on year, and the dependence on imports decreased slightly to 61%.

From January to September, the cumulative export volume of ethylene glycol was 33500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 71.49%; Among them, the export volume of ethylene glycol in September was 1300t, down 69.62% month on month and up 50.78% year on year.

Future market forecast

In the short term, there is a strong expectation of weak supply and demand. Under the expectation of new capacity, the pressure on the supply side is significantly increased. In terms of demand, the main downstream polyester products in the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyinshi are flat, and the future market is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation. The expected price fluctuation range is 3800-4150 yuan/ton. In the future, we will wait and see the maintenance continuity of Coal Chemical and the follow-up of terminal orders.