In 2022, the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate widely. It will decline in the early stage, rebound in the late stage, and weaken again in November. The price at the beginning of the year was 14560 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 10940 yuan/ton, down 24.86% from the beginning of the year; During the year, the highest point was 14560 yuan/ton, the lowest point was 8900 yuan/ton, and the amplitude was 38.87%.
The market trend of acrylonitrile in 2022 can be divided into five stages:
The first stage: rapid decline stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acrylonitrile was 14560 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022, and 11800 yuan/ton as of January 17, a decline of 18.96% in the cycle. The supply side pressure is expected to increase significantly due to the high load start of acrylonitrile and the launch plan of Lihuayi’s new units. In addition, the downstream stock preparation near the Spring Festival has basically ended. The acrylonitrile market is light and the price drops rapidly.
The second stage: narrow amplitude oscillation stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of May 30, the price of acrylonitrile was 11520 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from 11800 yuan/ton on January 17. During this period, the high point was 11920 yuan/ton, the low point was 11260 yuan/ton, and the amplitude was 5.86%. Since the commissioning of new acrylonitrile units totaling 1.04 million tons/year such as Lihuayi and Selbang in the second half of 2021, the supply side of acrylonitrile has been under pressure. However, since the Spring Festival in February, downstream ABS and others have started to improve, and the demand side of acrylonitrile has been supported; In addition, since March, Kroer and Shandong Haijiang have shut down 390000 t/a units for maintenance, and Shanghai Secco has reduced the load of 520000 t/a units to 50%, reducing the pressure on the supply side. At the same time, the price of raw propylene has greatly increased the cost of acrylonitrile. The weak balance between supply and demand and the strong support of costs have led to narrow fluctuations in the domestic acrylonitrile price.
The third stage: sharp decline stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acrylonitrile fell from 11520 yuan/ton on May 30 to 8900 yuan/ton on August 31, a decline of 22.74%. During this period, the price of propylene as raw material decreased significantly, and the cost of acrylonitrile decreased significantly; Downstream ABS, acrylic fiber, nitrile and other industries are in low season, and the demand side is insufficient; In addition, the impact of Tianchen Qixiang’s 130000 t/a new acrylonitrile unit being put into production has resulted in sufficient supply of acrylonitrile, which has led to a sharp decline in acrylonitrile prices.
The fourth stage: rebound stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 15, the price of acrylonitrile rose to a stage high of 11590 yuan/ton, up 30.22% from 8900 yuan/ton at the end of August. Mainly due to the strong downstream demand, the downstream ABS, acrylic fiber and other industries have significantly increased their demand for acrylonitrile; In addition, the price of raw materials rebounded slightly, and the cost of acrylonitrile rose, driving the acrylonitrile market to rebound significantly.
The fifth stage: the stage of falling after rising. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the price of acrylonitrile was 10940 yuan/ton, down 5.61% from 11590 yuan/ton on November 15. Mainly affected by the supply and demand side: on the one hand, Liaoning Jinfa’s 260000 t/a acrylonitrile new capacity was put into production at the end of October, which impacted the supply side; On the other hand, with the end of peak season and the impact of epidemic situation on downstream construction, the high level of construction fell slightly, and the demand support weakened.
The new capacity of the industry is large, and the supply side of acrylonitrile continues to be under pressure
Since the second half of 2021, the acrylonitrile capacity has entered the capacity expansion cycle. Under the pressure of supply side, the price of acrylonitrile in 2022 will be lower than that in 2021 as a whole.
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According to the business community, 650000 tons of new capacity will be added in the second half of 2021 alone; In 2024, more than 1 million t/a acrylonitrile units will be put into operation. The production capacity of acrylonitrile has risen straightly, coupled with the difficulties in increasing short-term demand, if the acrylonitrile enterprises do not take measures such as load reduction and maintenance, the pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile will be huge.
The downstream peak season starts to increase, and the demand is obviously supported by acrylonitrile.
The main downstream consumption industries of acrylonitrile are ABS, acrylic fiber industry and acrylamide (including polyacrylamide).
In the first quarter of 2022, the ABS industry will start to operate at 90% or even full capacity. After the Spring Festival, the demand will be significantly supported by acrylonitrile. Later, at the end of March and the end of June, there were two centralized maintenance periods, and the commencement was as low as 70% and 60% respectively, which was insufficient to support acrylonitrile; Since the beginning of August, ABS started to operate at a high level to nearly full load, and the demand for acrylonitrile was again supported. According to the business community, a total of 1.05 million tons/year of new production capacity of ABS, such as Lihuayi, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Ningbo Taihua, is planned to be put into production, which may form a certain support for acrylonitrile in the later period. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the domestic ABS price was 12050 yuan/ton, down 18.86% from 14850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The highest point in the year was 15250 yuan/ton on April 6, and the lowest point in the year was 11700 yuan/ton at the end of August, with an amplitude of 23.28%.
Acrylic fiber terminal products are mainly sweaters, blankets, carpets, etc., while the peak demand season for sweaters, blankets, etc. is concentrated in cold winter. In the first quarter of 2022, the construction of domestic acrylic fiber will be around 60%, and in April, the construction will be below 40%. The output in the first quarter will be about 133674 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.71%. In the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, the industry started at a low level in the off-season. After September, the domestic acrylic fiber plant Jilin Chemical Fiber Acrylonitrile Plant was restarted to normal operation, and the domestic acrylic fiber construction started from 30% to more than 60%. Later, with the increase of demand in peak season, the construction started for more than 70% at one time, and the demand for acrylonitrile increased significantly.
In recent years, the acrylamide/polyacrylamide industry has greatly increased, and the proportion of acrylonitrile application has gradually increased. According to the business community, the market size of acrylamide in China in 2017 was 4.35 billion yuan; In 2021, the market scale of acrylamide in China will be 7.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2%; In 2017, China’s polyacrylamide production was about 750000 tons, and in 2021, China’s polyacrylamide production was about 1.26 million tons. In recent years, the demand for acrylonitrile continues to grow.
In addition, with the increase of acrylamide/polyacrylamide investment and production capacity, the pressure on the supply side of polyacrylamide is gradually emerging, and the commencement of polyacrylamide is maintained between 50% and 70%, which still has a strong need to support acrylonitrile. However, the downstream growth of polypropylene is insufficient, and the price of polyacrylamide will fall slightly in 2022. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the price of domestic polyacrylamide was 15514 yuan/ton, down 10.54% from 17342 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The starting of polyacrylamide is maintained between 50% and 70%, which still supports acrylonitrile.
The price of raw propylene fluctuated widely, with obvious early support.
According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 21, the domestic propylene price was 7306 yuan/ton, down 3.21% from 7548 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The highest point in the year was 9314 yuan/ton on March 8, and the lowest point in the year was 6834 yuan/ton on August 24, with an amplitude of 26.62%. In the first half of the year, the price of acrylonitrile was at a high level from January to May. Especially in March, as the situation in Ukraine remained tense, the market became more worried about the risk of energy supply interruption. As the international oil price continued to rise significantly, the rise of propylene increased, with the price reaching 9314 yuan/ton, and the cost support was obvious. In the second half of the year, the crude oil surge was weak. In addition, new units were put into operation and maintenance units resumed production, the supply of propylene increased, market competition intensified, and propylene prices fell all the way; During the golden nine and silver ten years, it rebounded slightly, but the overall situation was still weak. In the second half of the year, the cost support for acrylonitrile was obviously insufficient.
Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that after a year of concentrated capacity expansion, acrylonitrile is currently in a state of overcapacity; If the new capacity of ABS can be put into production on time in the later stage, the demand will be supported by acrylonitrile. If the new capacity is delayed, the supply of acrylonitrile will still exceed the demand in the short term; In the near future, the US dollar will continue to maintain its strength. There is a risk that the international oil price will continue to decline. The propylene price may decline, and the acrylonitrile cost support will continue to weaken; At present, acrylonitrile has declined slightly since the middle of November. In summary, the rebound of acrylonitrile in the short term is expected to be difficult to sustain. In the long run, acrylonitrile will still be consolidated to seek a new balance point between supply and demand.
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