Under the influence of poor domestic textile terminal demand and weak global economy, the domestic viscose staple fiber market in 2022 will rise first and then fall. According to the data of the business community, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in domestic areas was 12180 yuan/ton on January 1, 12900 yuan/ton on December 30, and the overall price of viscose staple fiber will rise 5.91% in 2022. The lowest point in the year was 12180 yuan/ton in January at the beginning of the year, and the highest point was 15660 yuan/ton in late June. The amplitude in the year was 28.57%.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber in 2022

The price change in 2022 can be divided into three stages:

The first stage (January 1 to June 1): The price of viscose staple fiber rose rapidly at this stage, from 12180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 15500 yuan/ton, up 3320 yuan/ton, up 27.26%. The main driving force is the substantial upward movement of the cost side, the high global commodity prices, the rising raw material costs of pulp mills and the rising pulp prices, and the high price of imported dissolved pulp. At this time, the cost logic dominates, and the cash flow of viscose staple fiber industry fluctuates with the price of raw materials in a long-term negative situation.

The second stage (from June 1 to July 6): The price of viscose staple fiber in this stage still keeps rising, but the rising trend has slowed down significantly, from 15500 yuan/ton to 15660 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton. The main reason is the terminal consumption demand, the transfer of the inventory of the later spinning link to the downstream is blocked, and the market is not enthusiastic enough to continue to pursue growth. The sharp drop in the price of related competitive cotton caused a negative effect, which was transmitted to the shrinking demand for viscose staple fiber and the accumulation of cautious wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The third stage (July 6 to December 30): The price of viscose staple fiber in this stage declined from 15660 yuan/ton to 12900 yuan/ton, down 2760 yuan/ton, or 17.62%. 7. In August, the turnover of terminal textile clothing orders in the high temperature off-season was light, and there was no obvious improvement in the traditional peak season in September. Downstream demand continued to be weak since October, while the compression of cotton viscose price difference led to the loss of some viscose staple fiber orders. In summer, under the situation of power rationing in most regions, the cotton yarn opening rate once reached a low level within the year, and the inventory of viscose staple fiber industry rose. At this time, the viscose staple fiber manufacturers repeatedly gave up prices and exchanged quantities at the downstream stocking nodes.

Cotton yarn market of downstream people

Trend Chart of Human Cotton Yarn Price in 2022

In 2022, the downstream human cotton yarn market followed the viscose staple fiber first to rise and then to fall. According to the data of the business community, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first class) on January 1 was 18266 yuan/ton, and the quotation on December 30 was 17466 yuan/ton. The overall price of human cotton yarn fell by 4.38% in 2022. The lowest point in the year was 17466 yuan/ton at the end of the year, and the highest point was 19233 yuan/ton in late June, with an annual amplitude of 9.19%.

Future market forecast

In 2022, affected by such negative factors as macro pressure and sluggish domestic and international textile demand, viscose staple fiber will fall from a high position. With the favorable policies at the end of the year, textile enterprises will resume their work in an orderly manner. The market generally believes that the consumption of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn will improve in 2023. In the long run, the supply of viscose staple fiber is loose, and the pattern of weak downstream demand has not changed. Analysts from the business community believe that it is unlikely that the market of viscose staple fiber industry chain will rise significantly in 2023.

In the short term, the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream signing of orders has been basically completed in the near future, the factory orders are mainly delivered, some yarn enterprises and terminal weaving factories have been closed for holidays, and the market demand for raw materials is further reduced. The analysts of the business community predict that the price of viscose staple fiber may be weak and stable, and the market will wait until the end of the year.

The price of domestic fluorite declined. As of the 29th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3300 yuan/ton, with a half month decline of 2.58%. Downstream procurement is not active in the near future, and the high price of fluorite has fallen back.

Supply side: normal production of fluorite enterprises

Recently, the operating rate of domestic supply side is relatively normal. Although mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, the commencement of fluorite mines is still insufficient, but the recent commencement of fluorite flotation in the south is normal, the spot supply of fluorite is relatively sufficient, and some fluorite enterprises in the north have stopped working. On the whole, there are few new fluorite orders, the situation of goods delivery is weaker, and the high price of fluorite on the market falls back.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid market declines, refrigerant remains low

The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market fell. As of the 29th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12500 yuan/ton, with a half month price decline of 2.02%. The domestic market trend of hydrofluoric acid declined, and some hydrofluoric acid plants were shut down, reducing the enthusiasm for upstream fluorite procurement. The decline in the price of hydrofluoric acid market had a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite market declined.

The market of terminal downstream refrigerant products remains low, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, the demand for R22 market applications is low, and the R22 market quotation is in the range of 18000-19000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much, the trichloroethylene price remains unchanged, and the R134a trading center remains low and stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is between 23000-25000 yuan/ton. Recently, the downstream refrigerant industry procurement is not active, and the refrigerant market is sluggish. For the upstream raw material procurement is limited, the price trend of fluorite has fallen back.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: The supply of raw material fluorite ore is still tight in the near future, but the purchasing sentiment of downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises is not high. In addition, some downstream enterprises will stop production for holidays in the short term, and the price trend of fluorite market will fall back in the short term. In the long term, the new energy, semiconductor and new material industries will develop rapidly, which will support the demand for fluorite in the long term, and the price decline of fluorite market will be limited.

DOP price consolidation this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the DOP price was 9920 yuan/ton, down 0.40% from 9960 yuan/ton on December 18. The price of raw materials was consolidated, and the DOP market was adjusted.

Price consolidation of raw material isooctanol

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the price of isooctanol was 9833.33 yuan/ton, up 1.72% from 9666.67 yuan/ton on December 18. The price of isooctanol rose in shock, the cost of DOP raw materials was adjusted in shock, and the momentum for DOP to rise remained.

Price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-benzene method was 8150 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the price of 8175 yuan/ton on December 18. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell, the operating rate of ortho phthalic anhydride was stable, the supply of phthalic anhydride was stable, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell, and the cost of DOP fell.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business agency, the price of raw material isooctanol rose in shock this week, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, the DOP cost was adjusted in shock, and the downward pressure on DOP remained weak. In the future, the DOP cost shock consolidation demand remains weak, and it is expected that the future DOP price shock will stabilize.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. As of the 16th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12,757.14 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the price of 12,757.14 yuan/ton on the 5th, with a year-on-year increase of 0.29%.

The price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remains high. Recently, the temperature in the north has dropped sharply, and some devices have not been started. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight. The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid in the maintenance of some manufacturers in the south has declined as a whole, which has affected the price to maintain a high level. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 12400-12700 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 12500-12800 yuan/ton. In terms of export, the export price is higher than the domestic market price due to problems such as content and packaging. The export price is about 14000 yuan/ton.

The price trend of raw material fluorite market rose slightly this week. As of the 16th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3387.5 yuan/ton, 0.75% higher than the price of 3375 yuan/ton on the 10th. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Since the middle of October, the price has reached a high level. At present, the price is at the peak of the year. The operating rate of fluorite mines remains low. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. There is a shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials. The commencement of fluorite flotation is limited, and the spot supply is insufficient. In addition, the import of fluorite is limited. The supply of fluorite is tenfold tight. Hydrofluoric acid is driven by the cost, and the market price remains high.

The market of the downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is average, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is maintained. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 17000-19000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price fell slightly, the trichloroethylene price was temporarily stable, the cost support was still in place, and the R134a trading focus remained stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 24000-25000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, and the price of hydrofluoric acid remains high due to the cost.

In the future, the market of fluorine chemical industry improved, the price of raw material fluorite remained high, the price of sulfuric acid raw material rose, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products was temporarily stable. In addition, the domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid was slightly strained recently, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain were well supported. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from the business community, believed that the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market in the later period was temporarily stable.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China rose from 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.23%. A year-on-year decrease of 34.52%. On December 18, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 44.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 57.36% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 2.62% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers rose this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 6216.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 6.17%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future outlook

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in late December was dominated by slight fluctuation. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream paint market was in general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 17, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 6866.67 yuan/ton, 1.2% lower than that of the same period last week, with a drop of about 100 yuan/ton. The cyclohexane market is operating weakly and stably in the short term.

The average price of domestic industrial grade cyclohexane is 6866.67 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 6900 yuan/ton. The supply side is normal and the logistics is slow.

Chemical index: On December 16, the chemical index was 930 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 33.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 55.52% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from the business community believe that the cyclohexane market is weak in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average ex factory tax inclusive price of light potassium carbonate in Shanxi was 9225.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 9175.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.54%. The current price rose by 0.14% month on month and 12.81% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has been choppy and consolidated recently, and the market has declined slightly this week. The supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the market price of potassium chloride fluctuates and consolidates. Border trade orders have not yet been fully determined. Downstream procurement remains just in demand. The market turnover is light, and the potassium carbonate market drops. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate mainstream factory this week is about 9000-9300 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), which varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is stable. The potash fertilizer market fluctuated slightly. It is reported that new orders for border trade may have been signed, but the specific amount has not been determined. 62% of Yingkou Port’s white potassium is quoted at 3700-3750 yuan/ton, 62% of Zhanjiang Port’s white potassium is 3680-3700 yuan/ton, and 62% of Fangcheng Port’s white potassium is 3680-3700 yuan/ton.

Recently, the potassium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level, and the cost support is fair. The demand of downstream factories is average. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of acrylic acid in East China as of December 9 was 6700.00 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the price on Monday and 9.05% lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

Since December, the market situation of acrylic acid in East China has been mainly stable. Some enterprises have lowered their prices. This week, the acrylic acid market is mainly stable. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw propylene has fallen recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of supply and demand: the market operating rate of some devices has declined, and the spot amount of acrylic acid is low. However, downstream procurement is cautious and just needs. The market atmosphere is flat, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation is stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7530.60 on December 8, a decrease of 2.08% compared with December 1 (7690.60).

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the current cost support is weak, and the supply side has some support for the acrylic market, but the demand side is cautious. The market transaction is just in demand. It is expected that the acrylic market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province dropped from 9300.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9133.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 1.79%. A year-on-year decrease of 16.21%. On December 11, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.16, unchanged from yesterday, 51.16% lower than the peak of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and 91.07% higher than the low of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7710.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7434.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.58%, 1.64% YoY. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price fell slightly this week. The DOP price fell from 9960.00 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 9761.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.00%, 7.92% YoY. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers became less enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In the middle and late December, the market of Shandong isooctanol fell mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream propylene market declined slightly, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market declined slightly, and downstream demand weakened. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of flake caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 4783.33 yuan/ton, up 44.95% year on year.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1104 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1108 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.36%, 41.15% higher than the same period last year. The average market price in Shandong is about 1070-1180 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the market is in a stalemate, and the market turnover is average recently,. However, the downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and more cautious purchasing. However, as the end of the year is approaching, downstream enterprises are stocking up, which supports the price of caustic soda..

Analysts from the business community believe that the flake caustic soda market is operating stably for the time being, and the trading and investment atmosphere is mostly maintained at the early stage. Most downstream enterprises purchase according to demand, and the shipments are ordinary. They are mainly wait-and-see attitude, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is ordinary. In general, the price of flake caustic soda is short-term or the consolidation operation is based on the demand of the downstream market.