On September 21, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 185500-187500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 186500 yuan/ton, 2500 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day.

On the night of the 20th, the dollar rose to a nearly 20 year high, and the market expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by more than 75 basis points. The crude oil market closed down by more than 1%. Affected by the macro data, the metal rose and fell by half in the night market, with Lunxi leading the rise by 1% and Shanghai Tin leading the rise by 1.76% in the internal market. In the morning of the 21st, Shanghai Wuxi continued its rising trend. As of the closing of the 21st, the main contract 2210 of Shanghai Wuxi closed at 180960 yuan/ton, up 2.66%.

In terms of fundamentals, the overall quotation of manufacturers is still stable in the near future, the supply and demand are basically unchanged, and the pattern of weak supply and demand is still maintained. The operating rate of major manufacturers is generally stable. The domestic tin output increased significantly in August, the source of import goods increased significantly, the market quotation of import goods increased, and the domestic tin ingot supply was relatively loose as a whole. Consumption in downstream demand is slightly weak, and the willingness to prepare goods before the festival is generally low. The downstream still maintains on-demand procurement, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. From a comprehensive perspective, the tin market is still weak in both supply and demand, and the downstream demand is weak. It is hard to support the tin price. It is expected that the rising momentum of tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price is likely to bear more pressure in the future market.

This week, the spot tin market price (9.9-9.16) had a volatile market trend and fell as a whole. The average price of the domestic market was 186360 yuan/ton last weekend and 183610 yuan/ton this weekend, down 1.48%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will continue to weaken after April 2022, with only a small increase in some weeks, and the overall downward trend.

Futures market situation this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory (ton)., compared with last week’s inventory change (ton)

Shanghai Tin, 176250 yuan/ton, – 8710 yuan/ton, 1992, – 157

London tin, 21130 dollars/ton, – 215 dollars/ton, 4855.,+45

In terms of futures market, the trend of Lunxi this week was weak as a whole, and the price was volatile, with a weekly drop of about 1.6%. The trend of Shanghai and Wuxi was volatile this week, with an overall weekly decline of about 1.4%. Macroscopically, the US inflation data this week was higher than expected. The Fed meeting was generally hawkish. The metal market was under pressure, and tin prices were dragged down.

The main range of the spot market this week was 178000-189000 yuan/ton. The price did not change much compared with last week, but decreased slightly. The premium of the spot market remained at a high level. The traders had a strong attitude towards price fixing. The overall market trading was limited. The downstream still maintained demand based procurement. The actual transaction situation was slightly light. In terms of fundamentals, the manufacturer’s quotation this week is still stable as a whole, and the supply and demand are basically unchanged, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The operating rate of major manufacturers is generally stable this week. The domestic tin output increased significantly in August, the source of import goods increased significantly, the market quotation of import goods increased, and the domestic tin ingot supply was relatively loose as a whole. Consumption in downstream demand is slightly weak, and the willingness to prepare goods before the festival is generally low. The downstream still maintains on-demand procurement, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. From a comprehensive perspective, the tin market is still weak in both supply and demand, and the downstream demand is weak. It is hard to support the tin price. It is expected that the rising momentum of tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price is likely to bear more pressure in the future market.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of September 18 was 6660.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 0.45% from the price of 6690.00 yuan/ton on September 12.

On September 18, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.89, unchanged from yesterday, 0.60% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 135.70 (2022-06-21), and 192.73% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price rose in shock, and the cost of ship fuel market was supported. According to the business community, as of September 18, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area of CNGC was 6650 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6750 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNOOC Shanghai is 6600 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6700 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil price fluctuated. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing the oil price valuation. In addition, the global economic recession is expected to continue to depress oil prices. The good news on the supply side of the oil market and the bad news on the demand side will continue to play a game. In particular, the trend of geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): as of the week of September 14, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore had dropped by 500000 barrels to 19.4 million barrels; Medium distillate oil inventory rose by 300000 barrels to 8.5 million barrels; The light distillate oil inventory decreased by 100000 barrels to 15.6 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price will fluctuate this week, and the raw material price in the domestic ship fuel market will decline; Affected by typhoon, some ports have limited oil supply. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the ship fuel market, and the market transaction is cautious, with the purchase of just needed goods as the main. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6600-6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700-6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will decline slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffins 52 was 6166 yuan/ton on September 13, and 6166 yuan/ton on September 16. The price of chlorinated paraffins 52 was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin rose this week, and the domestic operating rate was about 60%. After the festival, the prices of raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax rose, and the cost support was favorable. Equipment maintenance of some manufacturers reduced the on-site supply. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the market turnover has increased. The price of chlorinated paraffins in Anhui increased by about 300/ton, while the price of chlorinated paraffins in Shandong decreased. Some manufacturers and dealers sold at a stable price for shipment. As of September 16, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui was about 6600 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Northeast China was about 5800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Shandong was about 6100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the market price of liquid wax continued to rise this week by 0.73%. Liquid wax market changes with crude oil, and the overall market is running well. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the market price of liquid chlorine continued to rise this week by 2.38%. The market demand increased and the transaction atmosphere was good.

3、 Future market forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business community believe that the current market of chlorinated paraffin raw materials is stronger, and the cost side is strongly supported. The downstream market of chlorinated paraffins is good. The raw materials are purchased on demand, and the market turnover is increased. Most chlorinated paraffins enterprises sell at a fixed price. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will rise steadily in the short term.

Zinc price fell on September 15

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price fell on September 15, and the zinc market fell back. On September 15, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 25406 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from 25426 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, up 11.38% year on year.

Key points of analysis

The data released by Shanghai Futures Exchange shows that Shanghai’s zinc inventory has continued to decline recently. On September 15, the zinc ingot inventory decreased to 31712 tons, a new low since February. The inventory of the zinc market dropped significantly, and the downward pressure of the zinc market was weakened due to the strong upward momentum.

Future market forecast

The domestic zinc stock declined, the London zinc stock declined, the zinc supply declined slightly, and the zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

Chart of nitric acid market price trend

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of nitric acid was 2266 yuan/ton on September 14, and 2200 yuan/ton on September 9, up 3.03%.

The upstream liquid ammonia rose 8.36% this week (9.1-9.14). Downstream aniline rose 11.59%, TDI rose 8.25%, potassium nitrate fell 1.84%, ammonium nitrate prices fell 4.61%, supported by the cost of liquid ammonia. Downstream aniline and TDI prices rose, which was good for the rise of nitric acid prices. Supported by the demand for goods preparation before the festival, nitric acid analysts in the business community predicted that the price of nitric acid might rise.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic rare earth market stopped falling recently, and the price trend of some light rare earth markets rose slightly. On September 12, the rare earth index was 587 points, unchanged from yesterday, 41.71% lower than the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 116.61% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015.

Since September 7, the domestic light rare earth market price has ended its three-month decline, and the market price has ushered in a small rise. The domestic prices of neodymium metal, praseodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide all have a small upward trend. On September 13, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 722500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 595000 yuan / ton, and the price of neodymium oxide was 655000 yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal is 815000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium metal is 885000 yuan / ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide is 635000 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic light rare earth market has stopped falling and rebounded.

The price of the domestic rare earth market has risen slightly. Recently, the number of new downstream orders has increased. In addition, the rare earth industry is gradually entering the peak season, and some downstream businesses are stocking up. However, due to repeated outbreaks in some regions, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises remains, and the increase in demand is not very obvious. The increase in rare earth market is limited. Due to the impact on the production of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some epidemic areas, the supply side was slightly strained, and the market price rose slightly. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are distributed in Zhejiang. Recently, the sales of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles have increased month on month, the demand for spot procurement has increased, and the prices in the market have stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream demand has improved and procurement demand has risen slightly. However, the active offer of the separated enterprises on the market is still not high, the traders’ offer is active, the wait-and-see mood on the market remains, and the light rare earth market has risen slightly.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is fairly good. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively in August 2022, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 32.1%, both higher than that of last month. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 691000 and 666000, up 1.2 times and 1 times respectively year-on-year, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record. The production and sales of automobiles have increased significantly. Recently, the demand in the new energy field is still supported. The price of the domestic light rare earth market has been supported to a certain extent, and the price trend has risen.

In addition, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 met expectations, and the industry pattern continued to optimize. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. In 2022, the total control indicators of the first two batches of rare earth mining, smelting and separation were 210000 tons and 202000 tons, respectively, with a significant year-on-year increase. However, the demand gap for rare earth still exists, and the situation of supply exceeding demand has not improved.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, downstream procurement is limited. However, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have increased recently, and some enterprises have gradually started replenishment. In addition, with the start of rare earth peak season, business community analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business club, toluene continued to rise this week. The price was 7640 yuan / ton on August 26 and 7800 yuan / ton on Friday (September 2), up 2.09% from last week; Up 38.79% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the rising trend of gasoline, the toluene market has been given a positive boost. In addition, the supply of toluene has continued to be tight, and the market has a positive attitude towards pushing up prices. However, the continuous decline of crude oil depressed the market atmosphere, and the rise of toluene narrowed.

In terms of the external market, toluene in Asia fell violently in the external market this week. On Thursday (September 1), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $974 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $14.5/t, or 1.47%.

In terms of crude oil, oil prices rose as a whole last week due to OPEC + production reduction expectations. However, against the background of continuous interest rate hikes by central banks around the world this week, the market has become more worried about the impact of high inflation and interest rate hikes on the economy, and oil prices have fallen by a wide margin. As of September 2, Brent’s price fell by 7.97 dollars per barrel, or 7.89%, compared with last week; WTI fell by US $6.19/barrel, or 6.65%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the TDI in East China increased by a wide margin this week. On August 26, the price was 17350 yuan / ton, and on September 2, the price was 18200 yuan / ton, up 4.9% over last week and 26.1% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price fell this week. On August 26, the price was 9000 yuan / ton, and on September 2, the price was 8800 yuan / ton. The price fell by 2.22% compared with last week, and increased by 23.94% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On August 26, the price was 9073 yuan / ton, and on September 2, the price was 9347 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.02% over last week and 28.06% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, first of all, the supply side is still tight, and OPEC + may face a bottleneck in increasing production in the later stage. However, the negotiation results on the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement will affect the market supply of crude oil. Secondly, there are still great risks on the demand side, and the market is still worried about the economic recession. In the future, the oil market will continue to play a long and short game, and the risk of economic recession and epidemic factors will still be the biggest constraints on oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil, product oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The market is still bullish on gasoline demand in the future, and the spot supply of toluene market is tight. There is a strong positive atmosphere in the short-term market, and the attitude of the industry to support prices is not reduced. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene plant dynamics and downstream demand on the price.

On September 5, the market of acetic anhydride rose

According to the data monitoring of business association, the price of acetic anhydride rose on September 5, and the market of acetic anhydride rose. On September 5, the price of acetic anhydride was 5966.67 yuan / ton, up 0.56% from 5933.33 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. Recently, the price of acetic acid has increased, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, some acetic anhydride enterprises in Shandong have stopped maintenance and production, and the price of some acetic anhydride enterprises has increased slightly.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, the price of methanol increased and the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride increased. Some acetic anhydride enterprises in Shandong stopped production and maintenance, the supply of acetic anhydride decreased, the price of acetic anhydride increased, the demand side, the sales of acetic anhydride was poor, the downstream just needed to purchase, the customers’ willingness to purchase was general, and the main thing was to wait and see. The downward pressure of acetic anhydride still exists, and the upward momentum is large.

Future forecast

The demand for cost increase is temporarily stable, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride still exists, and the upward momentum is large. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be strong and stable in the future.

According to the sample data monitored by the business association, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI at the beginning of the month was 16160 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 14800 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 8.42% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 27.36%.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of bulk commodity prices in August 2022, there were 43 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector that rose month on month, of which 16 kinds increased by more than 5%, accounting for 14.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities with growth were sulfur (25.54%), propylene glycol (17.49%) and yellow phosphorus (17.43%). There were 65 commodities with a month on month decline, and 40 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 36.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were sulfuric acid (- 53.92%), glycine (- 28.83%), and monoammonium phosphate (- 26.88%). The average increase / decrease this month was – 2.63%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of August 31:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong. Around 14300-14500 yuan / ton. 14000-14200 yuan / ton

South China, 14300-14500 yuan / ton, 14000-14200 yuan / ton

East China, 14700-14800 yuan / ton, 14300-14400 yuan / ton

At the beginning of this month, the domestic aggregate MDI market was in a downturn, and the price continued to decline, resulting in a poor trading atmosphere. The follow-up at the downstream end is general, the overall purchase of gas is insufficient, and the consumption capacity is weak.

In the first ten days of September, the decline of domestic aggregate MDI market slowed down, the prices of major manufacturers increased to support the market, and the quotations of some dealers increased by 100-200 yuan / ton to observe the market receiving atmosphere. However, downstream buying is not good, and the overall follow-up atmosphere is limited.

In the middle of September, the domestic aggregate MDI market was sorted out and watched, and the prices of traders were mostly stable. At present, the transaction situation is general, the supply and demand game, and the market is in a dilemma.

In late September, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell significantly. On the supply side, the large supply and low price of imported goods have impacted the domestic market, which has been in contradiction with supply and demand. At the same time, the overall purchasing power of the downstream is poor, and the contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent. The domestic aggregate MDI market has obviously declined.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell continuously in August. Mainly, pure benzene imported from East China is concentrated in the port, social inventory is accumulated continuously, and the carrier ships at a discount; Due to the economical shutdown and summer maintenance of the downstream unit of pure benzene, the demand for pure benzene has decreased; Market players are pessimistic about crude oil and economic environment, and traders’ enthusiasm for entering the market has declined.

In terms of aniline, domestic aniline rebounded weakly in August. There was a certain reduction in supply, and we heard that the export demand was strong, and the inventory of aniline factories was falling rapidly. There was no obvious export pressure, and the market rebounded slightly.

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; The 1.2 million T / a unit of Ningbo Wanhua operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kostron operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Or postpone the overhaul to June July; The 220000 T / a unit of Shanghai BASF operates normally; Or postpone the overhaul to June July; Chongqing BASF’s 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

At present, the operating rate of polymerized MDI units is on the high side, the supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is not good, and the supply of goods is abundant. Analysts of polymerized MDI of business society predict that the domestic polymerized MDI market will mainly be sorted out and watched.