Poor deal, neodymium rare earth prices fell significantly

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market fell slightly. The price of domestic praseodymium and neodymium rare earth dropped significantly. The price of heavy rare earth market remained high, while the price of domestic rare earth market fell slightly. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on April 1 was 569 points, down 1 point from yesterday, and 1000 points from the highest point in the cycle (2011-01) 2-06), down 43.10%, up 109.96% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

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It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the domestic rare earth prices have slightly rebounded. Recently, some prices in the rare earth market have gone down, and the rare earth market has cooled down. In terms of products:

 

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that domestic neodymium oxide and metal neodymium decreased significantly, while the prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium dropped slightly. As of April 2, the price of domestic rare earth neodymium oxide was 622500 yuan / ton, 8.46% lower than that at the beginning of March; the price of metal neodymium was 777500 yuan / ton, 6.89% lower than that at the beginning of March; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 0 yuan / ton The price of praseodymium alloy is 715000 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium oxide is 522500 yuan / ton; and the price of praseodymium metal is 675000 yuan / ton. The domestic market of light rare earth has dropped slightly.

 

In recent years, the rare earth market has been fluctuating and declining. According to the feedback of some enterprises, the overall trading volume has declined, and the downstream permanent magnet is mainly purchased on demand. However, in the early stage, the manufacturers are actively preparing goods, and the on-site inventory has increased, which leads to the downstream purchasing is not active, and the market price of light rare earth is lower. The sales of new energy vehicles are fair, which has driven the development of many industries. According to the insiders, the rare earth gap is likely to continue throughout 2021. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry, in the first and middle of March, 11 key enterprises completed 1.267 million vehicles, an increase of 1.2 times over the same period last year. Among them, 1.013 million passenger cars were produced, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times; 254000 commercial vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 1 times. In addition, some domestic light rare earth market prices remain stable. Recently, the domestic market price of heavy rare earths has maintained a high level.

 

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium series remained at a high level, with the price of dysprosium oxide at 3.06 million yuan / ton as of the 2nd, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy at 3.02 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal at 3.9 million yuan / ton, and the domestic price of terbium series dropped slightly, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 9.65 million yuan / ton and the price of metal terbium at 12.25 million yuan / ton. The reasons for the high price of domestic heavy rare earth market include the political turmoil in Myanmar and the concentration of global rare earth supply. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to the high price of heavy rare earth. In addition, the domestic production of heavy rare earth is normal, and it can be said that the domestic demand for heavy rare earth is weak. The domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for the domestic price of heavy rare earth.

 

The Ministry of industry and information technology has openly solicited opinions on the “Regulations on rare earth management (Draft)”, proposed that the state should implement total index management on rare earth mining and smelting separation, implement rare earth resource areas and strategic reserves of rare earth products, and for the first time clarify the punishment regulations for enterprises violating the regulations. Industry insiders believe that the draft reflects the government’s strengthening control over the rare earth industry, and makes clear the punishment for illegal enterprises for the first time, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the prices of mainstream rare earth varieties have been on the rise, while the prices of heavy rare earth mainstream varieties have increased significantly. It is estimated that the price of rare earth is expected to start a long bull trend in 2021, and the profits of leading companies in the upstream of rare earth industry chain are expected to be fully released.

 

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which is related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mining (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth ore and 11490 tons of rock ore The index of type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled, the state policy is favorable, and the trend of most products in the rare earth market will be stable.

 

With the continuous volume of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, it is expected to drive further growth of demand. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand. The domestic demand for rare earth remains high, and the domestic supply of Rare Earth starts to work normally. However, the recent on-site transaction is poor, and the purchase is not active. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the market price of rare earth will be light in the near future The local market price may go down slightly.

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