1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining and hydrogenation Naphtha mainstream was 7729.00 yuan/ton, up 1.81% from 7589.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local refining and hydrogenation Naphtha fell after rising.

As of June 30, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run Naphtha mainstream was 7611.50 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from 7334.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local straight run Naphtha fell after rising.

On June 29, the Naphtha commodity index was 96.62, down 0.96 points from yesterday, down 20.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and up 128.74% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In June, the price of locally refined Naphtha rose first and then fell. At present, the mainstream price of locally refined hydrogenated Naphtha is about 7700-7900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run Naphtha is about 7600-7800 yuan/ton. In the first ten days of June, the terminal was reformed and ethylene was released in a centralized way. The terminal of Naphtha market just needed support. The market turnover was good and the refinery actively pushed up. In late June, the restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with light market trading and refineries reducing prices for shipments. As of the week ending June 27th, Singapore’s fuel inventory increased by 1.859 million barrels, reaching a two-week high of 20.394 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory increased by 248000 barrels, reaching a two week high of 7.98 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory decreased by 105000 barrels to a nearly six-month low of 14.626 million barrels.

Upstream: The international crude oil market fluctuated in June. On the one hand, based on the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rate hikes have not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure has increased, putting pressure on the oil market. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China’s refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted.

Downstream: The price of toluene fluctuated and declined in June. On June 1st, the price of toluene was 7150 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 7060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. In June, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and decreased. On June 1st, the price of mixed xylene was 7430 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21%. The price of P-Xylene rose slightly in June. As of June 30, the ex factory price of P-Xylene in China was 8250 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from 8200 yuan/ton on June 1.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business society, recently, Naphtha terminal of local refining has been restructured, ethylene demand has continued to be weak, market turnover has been light, and refineries have reduced prices for shipment. It is expected that Naphtha of local refining will decline slightly in the near future.