1、 Price data

As of September 25, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 8476.67 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from 8486.67 yuan/ton on September 19. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 8400-8600 yuan/ton.

As of September 25, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 8332.50 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from 8335.00 yuan/ton on September 19. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

On September 25, the naphtha commodity index was 104.62, unchanged from yesterday, 13.99% lower than the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and 147.68% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and the refinery just needed to purchase. Affected by the bad news of the gasoline and diesel market, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the market was in a wait-and-see mood. The refinery reduced the price and shipped.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fluctuated and fell. The boots of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase landed at 75 basis points. In addition, the repeated epidemic situation depressed the demand for crude oil, and the international oil price trend declined. As of the week ended September 16, US crude oil inventory increased by 1.1 million barrels to 4307.7 million barrels, and analysts expected an increase of 2.2 million barrels. EIA reports that the crude oil inventory of Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery place of NYMEX crude oil futures, increased by 343000 barrels. In addition, China’s crude oil imports fell sharply in August compared with the same period last year, which depressed market confidence. The control brought about by the epidemic repeatedly dragged down oil demand, and international oil prices fell.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, toluene rose slightly this week, with the price at 7660 yuan/ton on September 19 and 7690 yuan/ton on September 25, up 0.39%. Mixed xylene fell slightly this week, with the price at 8120 yuan/ton on September 19 and 8080 yuan/ton on September 25, down 0.49%. In terms of PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9000 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business society, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell this week. The cost support of the naphtha market was limited. Affected by the bad news in the gasoline and diesel markets, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the pre holiday stock expectation was weakened. The local refining naphtha market price fell. It is expected that the local refining naphtha will continue to decline in the near future.