According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 10, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 7200 yuan/ton, which was increased by 334 yuan/ton, or 4.85%, compared with September 30, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6866 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the National Day in October, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate has been running upward as a whole. The main driving factors for the upward shift of the center of gravity of dimethyl carbonate come from the following three aspects:

First, on the demand side, the downstream demand side performed well after the festival, the terminal market replenished goods actively, and the market inquiry atmosphere was more active.

Second, on the supply side, during the National Day holiday, the accumulated inventory of dimethyl carbonate plants was relatively low, and the supply pressure of plants after the festival was low, and some businesses were reluctant to sell.

Third, in terms of cost, the overall high level of propylene oxide market after the festival gives dimethyl carbonate cost support.

Based on the above three aspects of support, the dimethyl carbonate market ushered in a strong high market after the festival. At present, as of October 10, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 7000-7300 yuan/ton, and the post holiday price has increased by 100-400 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the overall propylene oxide market rose slightly in September. In October, the propylene oxide market was weak and slightly volatile after the festival. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9766 yuan/ton on October 9, a decrease of 3.20% compared with October 1.

Future trend analysis

At present, the market trading and investment atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate is good, the supply and demand transmission is smooth, and the overall optimism of the industry is mostly in the future market. The dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate stably, moderately and strongly. It is said that in the fourth quarter, the domestic dimethyl carbonate capacity will increase. With the increase of supply, there is a risk that the market will fall from a high level in the long run, The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

On September 29, the crude benzol commodity index was 106.91, down 3.63 points from yesterday, down 18.91% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 (2013-01-28), and up 250.07% from the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In September 2022, the crude benzene market rose first and then fell. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 6658 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 6665 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.11%.

Crude oil: In September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

Macroscopically, the continuous strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on oil prices. In addition, the risk of economic recession is aggravated by the sharp interest rate increase of the global central bank, which then depresses the fuel demand. In addition, as the refinery entered the autumn overhaul period, the decline in operating rate led to the accumulation of crude oil, and many factors triggered a panic decline in the oil market.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

September 6., 7750.,+150

September 20., 7850.,+100

In September 2022, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene twice, with a cumulative increase of 250 yuan/ton. As of the 30th, 7850 yuan/ton had been implemented.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7980 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7953 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton.

Industrial chain: looking at the trend chart in September, it can be found that the industrial chain was in an upward trend in most of the whole September, only the price fell at the end of the month. In the middle and first ten days of the month, supported by the double positive effects of crude oil and styrene, pure benzene price shocks acted as the main driver, driving the overall industry chain to improve. The price of hydrogenated benzene in the upstream of crude benzene rose along with that of pure benzene, and the bidding price of crude benzene was continuously raised due to the boost. After entering the middle and late ten days, the crude oil market fell broadly, and the cost support began to weaken. In terms of downstream trend, styrene rose broadly in September and then fell back, while most other commodities rose in price. There was a general demand for goods in the downstream near the small and long holidays. The market procurement was active, and the improvement of the demand side drove pure benzene higher. As the price of pure benzene continues to rise, the market is increasingly afraid of high spirits. After the decline of both styrene and crude oil, the strength of pure benzene support falls back and the price drops. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month. Later, affected by typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level. Near the end of the month, the bad news from crude oil and styrene dominated, while the downstream stock preparation was basically ended, the market transaction weakened, and the price fell.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

Looking at the crude benzol trend chart in September, it can be found that the crude benzol market was in an upward trend for most of the whole September, only the price fell at the end of the month. Since late August, the crude benzol market has risen continuously, and Shandong has risen to 7170 yuan/ton from 6520 yuan/ton in late August, with a cumulative increase of 650 yuan/ton. At the end of September, the bidding price in Shandong fell back to 6810 yuan/ton. In the early stage, crude benzol prices continued to rise due to the multiple positive effects of pre holiday stock, favorable industrial chain and positive market trading. However, after the end of September, the pre holiday goods preparation was basically completed, and the crude oil and styrene were weak. The negative factors still occupied the market. The crude benzol price was significantly reduced in the last bidding in September, and some enterprises were underrated in the bidding at the end of the month. In terms of supply: Coking enterprises have raised and lowered their operating rates in a round this month, and the overall operating rate has not changed much. Crude benzol supply is generally acceptable. In the future market, crude oil rose at the end of the month. In terms of pure benzene inventory, the port may continue to accumulate stock in the near future. The downstream performance is fair in the near future. There is an expectation that new capacity will be put into production in the downstream. In general, the fundamental support remains. It is expected that the price of crude benzene will be stable, moderate and strong after the festival. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand changes, etc. on the trend of the industrial chain.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, glycine in China rebounded at the bottom this week. The price of industrial glycine at the beginning of the week was 12666 yuan/ton, and that at the weekend was 13333 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.26%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glycine rose sharply this week. As of the press release, the mainstream quotation of industrial glycine market was 13500-14000 yuan/ton, the price rebounded at the bottom, and the market inquiry was active. The market atmosphere began to improve. It is reported that this price increase is mainly affected by two aspects: first, the overall market is not high, inventory is low, supply continues to tighten, price is low, and corporate profitability is poor; Second, downstream demand has improved, and glycine has risen along the trend stimulated by the demand for goods preparation before the festival.

3、 Future market forecast

Glycine analysts from the business community believe that due to the low price in the early stage, the production and sales of glycine market are weak. In the case of low supply, it is expected that the glycine price in the market will be firm and upward in the short term.

Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on September 29 was 36.67, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 63.33% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 34.42% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Natural rubber mainstream price trend in late September 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business agency, the spot market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in the East China market in September was first up and then down, and the trend was weak due to the callback at the end of the month; Among them, East China reported 12120 yuan/ton on the 21st and 12310 yuan/ton on the 30th, with a ten day increase of 1.57%.

Figure 3: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industry: According to the monitoring of the business community, the supply of natural rubber continued to be strong in the last ten days, the inventory was sufficient and the import volume continued to increase. Affected by the weak tire orders and the sufficient spot inventory, the purchase demand of natural rubber in the last ten days of the market did not show the “golden ninth” peak season in previous years. Although the natural rubber market rose slightly in the last ten days, the market did not continue, fell rapidly, and the market stabilized before the festival.

Figure 4: Trend Chart of International Crude Oil Mainstream Prices in Recent March 2022

Macroscopically, the international crude oil futures continued to fall sharply in late September, with a one-day drop of nearly 10% during the period. The market’s concern about the economic downturn was growing. The oil price fell continuously against the background of the continued deterioration of geopolitics. Since the third quarter, the WTI has fallen by more than 20%. According to the analysis, the oil price will still seek a balance between the supply shortage and the demand recession expectation in the future, and the superposition of interest rate increase cycle, geopolitical tension and other factors will make the oil market more volatile.

Figure 5: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

Future market forecast: considering the recent downstream tire orders and purchase demand status, it is unlikely that natural rubber will rise significantly without major extreme weather impact and downstream demand improvement, and the probability will remain volatile.