Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on September 29 was 36.67, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 63.33% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 34.42% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Natural rubber mainstream price trend in late September 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business agency, the spot market of domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in the East China market in September was first up and then down, and the trend was weak due to the callback at the end of the month; Among them, East China reported 12120 yuan/ton on the 21st and 12310 yuan/ton on the 30th, with a ten day increase of 1.57%.

Figure 3: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industry: According to the monitoring of the business community, the supply of natural rubber continued to be strong in the last ten days, the inventory was sufficient and the import volume continued to increase. Affected by the weak tire orders and the sufficient spot inventory, the purchase demand of natural rubber in the last ten days of the market did not show the “golden ninth” peak season in previous years. Although the natural rubber market rose slightly in the last ten days, the market did not continue, fell rapidly, and the market stabilized before the festival.

Figure 4: Trend Chart of International Crude Oil Mainstream Prices in Recent March 2022

Macroscopically, the international crude oil futures continued to fall sharply in late September, with a one-day drop of nearly 10% during the period. The market’s concern about the economic downturn was growing. The oil price fell continuously against the background of the continued deterioration of geopolitics. Since the third quarter, the WTI has fallen by more than 20%. According to the analysis, the oil price will still seek a balance between the supply shortage and the demand recession expectation in the future, and the superposition of interest rate increase cycle, geopolitical tension and other factors will make the oil market more volatile.

Figure 5: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

Future market forecast: considering the recent downstream tire orders and purchase demand status, it is unlikely that natural rubber will rise significantly without major extreme weather impact and downstream demand improvement, and the probability will remain volatile.