This week (4.8-4.14), the CIS polybutadiene rubber market fell slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of April 14, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 14430 yuan / ton, down 0.69% from 14530 yuan / ton last Friday.

This week, the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises increased on the 8th, and some enterprises decreased on the 13th. According to the monitoring of business society, as of April 14, the ex warehouse price of Qilu Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 14300 yuan / ton; PetroChina Northeast Sales Company Daqing Shunding factory 14600 yuan / ton. The international crude oil price fluctuated up and down at US $100 / barrel recently, and the cost side was weaker than that in the early stage. In addition, the price of raw butadiene fell and the demand side was weak, and the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber fell slightly.

This week (4.8-4.14), the start-up of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants was relatively low, coupled with the difficulties in logistics and transportation in some areas, and the market supply was tight.

This week (4.8-4.14), the high price of butadiene fell and the cost side weakened. According to the monitoring of business society, as of April 14, the price of butadiene was 10201 yuan / ton, down 6.67% from 10930 yuan / ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market fell slightly this week (4.8-4.14). According to the monitoring of business society, the price of natural rubber was 12780 yuan / ton as of April 14, down 0.78% from 12880 yuan / ton last Friday.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the decline in raw material prices, weak cost support, limited downstream start-up, weak demand, but tight supply. It is expected that the price of polybutadiene rubber will fluctuate and adjust slightly in the short term.

On April 13, the domestic cobalt price fell slightly

According to the data monitoring of business society, on April 13, the weak domestic cobalt price stabilized and the cobalt Market stabilized. On April 13, the cobalt price was 550400 yuan / ton, down 0.02% from 550500 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; The cobalt market was weak and stabilized, and the cobalt price fell slightly.

Key points of analysis

The international cobalt price has risen, and the price difference at home and abroad has increased; Many new energy vehicles stopped production and reduced production, the installed capacity of ternary batteries is expected to decline, the demand of cobalt Market decreases, and the rising power of cobalt Market weakens. Affected by the rainstorm, the transportation in South Africa is blocked, the supply of cobalt ore is expected to be limited in the future, and the rising power of cobalt market is increased.

Future forecast

The short-term demand is weak, the cobalt market is under great downward pressure, the transportation in South Africa is blocked, and the rising power of the cobalt market is increased. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly. As of April 12, the average market price of domestic PTA in East China was 6221 yuan / ton, up 2.03% from the previous trading day and 42.02% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 6128, up 172, or 2.89%.

In terms of PTA plant, chuanneng chemical has an annual output of 1 million tons. The PTA plant was shut down around April 7 and restarted on April 12. The PTA industry started around 72%, but PTA is still in the maintenance cycle.

Due to the impact of the epidemic, the terminal textile fermentation, the weaving operation rate fell sharply by less than 46%, the polyester production was passively reduced under the pressure of inventory, and the operation load decreased to around 84%, resulting in the reduction of PTA consumption.

Business analysts believe that today’s intraday crude oil is stronger and PTA circulation spot is less, supporting the strength of PTA prices. In the context of shrinking supply and demand, PTA is still expected to go to the warehouse in April, but under the background of further decline in polyester load, the extent of going to the warehouse has narrowed, and PTA is still closely following the operation of crude oil.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (April 11): 2932.00 yuan / ton

On April 11, the comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly, up 2 yuan / ton or 0.07% compared with the price on April 8, and up 38.52% compared with the same period last year. The prices of coal and liquefied natural gas in the upstream were adjusted at a high level, and the cost support was good. From the perspective of demand: strong agricultural demand and normal industrial demand. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the urea plant in Shanxi resumed production, the urea supply increased, and the daily output returned to more than 160000 tons. At the same time, many departments have taken measures to ensure the orderly release of agricultural materials supply and light storage sources, and the policy of ensuring supply and stable price remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand increases, the supply of urea increases, and the aftermarket urea fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

In the future, it is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong may fluctuate slightly, and the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 2900 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell slightly this week. As of April 8, the spot nickel quotation was 221150 yuan / ton, down 1.4% from 224283.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and up 75.79% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price has increased by 8, fell by 3 and leveled by 1, and the trend of nickel price has weakened recently.

 
To sum up: the risk of warehouse squeeze under LME low inventory is still high, and the situation of tight nickel supply before loose nickel supply has not changed. The internal and external price difference continues to widen, and the import window is closed. In particular, nickel beans are completely dependent on imports. In April, the marginal increment of substitutes for intermediate products and high matte nickel is limited, and the shortage of pure nickel remains. However, the epidemic is also restraining downstream consumption. We should pay attention to the replenishment behavior after the price reduction. Higher than expected release of nickel matte impacted market sentiment. Nickel fundamentals weakened in the second quarter, and it is expected that the future market or shock of nickel will be weak.

Trade name: propylene oxide

Latest price (April 7): 12000.00 yuan / ton

On April 7, the market price of propylene oxide in Shandong increased by 0.84% compared with the previous trading day and decreased by 2.44% compared with the price on March 7. At present, the price of raw propylene is rising, the cost support is rising, the social inventory is low, the downstream just needs to be purchased, the market trading atmosphere is warmer, and the focus of negotiation is shifted upward.

It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be strong in the short term.

DOP prices fell weakly on April 6

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fell and the DOP market fell on April 6. On April 6, the DOP price was 12250 yuan / ton, down 0.41% from 12300 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; DOP cost fell and DOP market adjusted weakly.

Key points of analysis

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized, the price of phthalic anhydride fell weakly, and the cost of DOP decreased; Downstream plastic PVC prices fluctuated and adjusted, with general demand; The downward pressure of plasticizers increased and the upward momentum weakened.

Future expectations

The cost decreases, the demand is general, the upward momentum of DOP decreases, the downward pressure increases, and the DOP price is expected to fall in the future.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 481400 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 505600 yuan / ton

Analysis: Recently, the price of lithium carbonate is basically stable. At present, the operating rate of mineral enterprises is gradually restored, the output in Qinghai is also gradually increased, and the market supply is up. The downstream ternary end is affected by the fluctuation of nickel price, and the orders are affected to a certain extent. In terms of iron lithium, due to the suspension of some terminal models, the inventory of battery factories is relatively high, which has an impact on the order of iron lithium. There are few market transactions, and the upstream and downstream game mood is strong.

Forecast: at present, the overall market demand is relatively weak, the market spot tension is relieved, and the short-term lithium carbonate price is expected to continue to maintain stability.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (March 31): 1116.67 yuan / ton

In March 2022, the domestic market price of sulfuric acid rose sharply. The price of sulfuric acid increased from 781.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of March to 1116.67 yuan / ton at the end of March, up 335 yuan / ton, or 42.86%, and 167.47% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is strong, and the rise of sulfuric acid price is also expected. The price of sulfur in the upstream rose sharply. In March, the price of sulfur rose by 970 yuan / ton, or 40.42%, up 128.22% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of downstream ammonium sulfate increased by 688.33 yuan / ton in March, or 57.60%. The price of downstream formic acid increased by 2483.33 yuan / ton in March, up 53.79%, up 173.08% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide market high consolidation, the price of sulfuric acid to bring some positive.

On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chains of sulfuric acid are working at the same time, and the price of sulfuric acid is rising step by step. In early April, it was dominated by slight shock and rise.

The monitoring shows that the natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 39.11, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 60.89% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 43.37% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in March 2022

The monitoring shows that in March, the domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China’s East China market fell first and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The mainstream market reported about 13060 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 13190 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 1%; Among them, the highest price point of this month was 13480 yuan / ton on March 9, and the lowest price point was 12780 yuan / ton on March 16, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 5.19%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices in March 2022

Macro analysis: at present, the supply expectation of the crude oil market is mainly affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine. From the news, the Russia Ukraine talks have made some progress, but the “order gun” of the ceasefire has been delayed. Moreover, it is difficult to change the expectation of Western sanctions against Russia. In the near future, Biden once again said that he would release a large number of strategic oil reserves, which would bring bad disturbance to the market in the short term. In the medium term, it is still affected by the decline of Russian exports and the insufficient increase of OPEC + production, accompanied by the expectation of tight supply. But at the same time, we need to pay attention to the progress of Russia Ukraine negotiations. On the demand side, at present, the market generally expects that the increase in demand in Europe and the United States will offset the reduction affected by the epidemic in China, and the overall demand still shows an increasing trend. At the same time, high oil prices will also depress some demand, so the growth of oil demand will slow down. Considering comprehensively, the oil price may still hover at a high level in the second quarter, and the driving force to continue to rise is still there. However, we should also pay attention to the risk of high oil price suppressing demand and beware of the arrival of reversal in the capital market.

Figure 4: K-bar chart of natural rubber market week in March 2022

Industry analysis: on the supply side, the natural rubber supply side is normal recently. It is reported that the production shutdown period in Southeast Asia is about to pass and usher in a new round of rubber cutting period. The cutting in Yunnan production area in China is gradually increasing. The cutting in Hainan production area is expected to start in mid April. It is expected that the overall rubber production will increase significantly after mid and late April, and the overall supply pressure will increase in the future, but the impact of the market on the expected increase in production has been gradually digested.

Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. The epidemic peak of tire enterprises in Shandong has passed, and the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually rebounded; However, due to the complex economic situation and the shortage of chips, the automotive industry continues to be depressed, but the demand for new energy vehicles is improving, and the demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted. In major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have shut down, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products has also increased.

In terms of inventory: the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume. The arrival volume of natural rubber decreases, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the rhythm of accumulating inventory slows down, and the inventory elimination of rubber inventory has begun.

Import and export: customs statistics show that from January to February, China’s natural rubber imports totaled 998700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.88%, of which 574000 tons were imported in January, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%; In February, 424700 tons were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 33.98%. The reasons for the year-on-year increase in import volume are: on the one hand, the shipping market was sluggish in the second half of last year, and some shipping dates were delayed to arrive in January; On the other hand, the replacement indicators of last year were not completed as scheduled, and some of them were moved to this year.

Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022

Future forecast: at present, the logistics transfer of local goods in circulation, such as Shanghai, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, is blocked, and the demand is suppressed to a certain extent; It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will maintain a volatile trend, the price will stabilize to a certain extent, and there may be a certain rebound demand in the short term. However, when the demand advantage is not obvious and the circulation is suppressed, the rebound range will be suppressed. We will focus on the increase of production in the production area and the impact of public health events.