The monitoring shows that the natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 39.11, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 60.89% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 43.37% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in March 2022
The monitoring shows that in March, the domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China’s East China market fell first and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The mainstream market reported about 13060 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 13190 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 1%; Among them, the highest price point of this month was 13480 yuan / ton on March 9, and the lowest price point was 12780 yuan / ton on March 16, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 5.19%.
Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices in March 2022
Macro analysis: at present, the supply expectation of the crude oil market is mainly affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine. From the news, the Russia Ukraine talks have made some progress, but the “order gun” of the ceasefire has been delayed. Moreover, it is difficult to change the expectation of Western sanctions against Russia. In the near future, Biden once again said that he would release a large number of strategic oil reserves, which would bring bad disturbance to the market in the short term. In the medium term, it is still affected by the decline of Russian exports and the insufficient increase of OPEC + production, accompanied by the expectation of tight supply. But at the same time, we need to pay attention to the progress of Russia Ukraine negotiations. On the demand side, at present, the market generally expects that the increase in demand in Europe and the United States will offset the reduction affected by the epidemic in China, and the overall demand still shows an increasing trend. At the same time, high oil prices will also depress some demand, so the growth of oil demand will slow down. Considering comprehensively, the oil price may still hover at a high level in the second quarter, and the driving force to continue to rise is still there. However, we should also pay attention to the risk of high oil price suppressing demand and beware of the arrival of reversal in the capital market.
Figure 4: K-bar chart of natural rubber market week in March 2022
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Industry analysis: on the supply side, the natural rubber supply side is normal recently. It is reported that the production shutdown period in Southeast Asia is about to pass and usher in a new round of rubber cutting period. The cutting in Yunnan production area in China is gradually increasing. The cutting in Hainan production area is expected to start in mid April. It is expected that the overall rubber production will increase significantly after mid and late April, and the overall supply pressure will increase in the future, but the impact of the market on the expected increase in production has been gradually digested.
Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. The epidemic peak of tire enterprises in Shandong has passed, and the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually rebounded; However, due to the complex economic situation and the shortage of chips, the automotive industry continues to be depressed, but the demand for new energy vehicles is improving, and the demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted. In major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have shut down, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products has also increased.
In terms of inventory: the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume. The arrival volume of natural rubber decreases, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the rhythm of accumulating inventory slows down, and the inventory elimination of rubber inventory has begun.
Import and export: customs statistics show that from January to February, China’s natural rubber imports totaled 998700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.88%, of which 574000 tons were imported in January, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%; In February, 424700 tons were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 33.98%. The reasons for the year-on-year increase in import volume are: on the one hand, the shipping market was sluggish in the second half of last year, and some shipping dates were delayed to arrive in January; On the other hand, the replacement indicators of last year were not completed as scheduled, and some of them were moved to this year.
Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022
Future forecast: at present, the logistics transfer of local goods in circulation, such as Shanghai, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, is blocked, and the demand is suppressed to a certain extent; It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will maintain a volatile trend, the price will stabilize to a certain extent, and there may be a certain rebound demand in the short term. However, when the demand advantage is not obvious and the circulation is suppressed, the rebound range will be suppressed. We will focus on the increase of production in the production area and the impact of public health events.
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